January 8,2016

The Forest

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. January isn’t a great time for horror films with few becoming outright successes.”
Box Office Results: $26.6 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] A horror release in the midst of the post-holiday season isn’t a recipe for success and the film, while performing decently for budget, was not much of a success.

The Masked Saint

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Without trailers or other previews, there’s not enough information to determine whether the film will be a huge success or an absolute mess.”
Box Office Results: $0.182 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] A film directly targeted at religious Hispanic audiences was a categorical failure, failing to even top $250 K.

January 15,2016

13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Michael Bay has done quite well with the tech categories at the Oscars. This film’s only real shots are in the sound categories.”
Oscar Results: Without being a major box office success and releasing so early, there’s little chance that even in Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing that it could hope to be a player.
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. In the last decade, Michael Bay has made one non-Transformers film and it wasn’t terribly successful. Gone are the days when he could command massive returns for everything he touched. Of course, most of his films came out in Summer, so there’s no way of knowing how this one will perform. It’s entirely atypical for his career, so who knows for certain. I suspect the January release is an attempt to capitalize on the performances of American Sniper and Lone Survivor in this window. It might perform well, but considering both of those films were trying for Oscar glory (one succeeding, one failing) and both were decently well reviewed. That said, I don’t think this film will earn very good reviews and it’s not an Oscar contender, so other than building buzz from the political right, I doubt it can break out as a hit.”
Box Office Results: $52.9 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Michael Bay doesn’t do well outside of his blockbuster wheelhouse, which could be why he’s committed to so many future Transformers films.

The 5th Wave

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. The film could make some inroads in the tech categories at the Oscars, but I sincerely doubt it.”
Oscar Results: A box office dud and a critical lightweight do not a recipe for an Oscar campaign make.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The highest box office tally for an alien invasion film releasing in January is $6.3 million by Imposter 14 years ago. The problem is so few have opened in this region of the calendar, it’s impossible to know if the film will succeed or fail. Generally, alien invasion pics do well with audiences, so it’s possible it will do decently well. I’m suspecting, though, that it may be more similar to I Am Number Four in terms of performance than anything else.”
Box Office Results: $34.9 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Yet another Young Adult property that failed to meet the expectations of the studio that greenlighted it.

Norm of the North

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. There aren’t many animated films that have released in January. Two years ago, The Nut Job did surprisingly well in this same frame, which may explain the release strategy. It’s possible they perform similarly, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it were a bomb either.”
Box Office Results: $17.1 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Proof that even films that look dreadful cannot win over family audiences simply by featuring animated animals.

Ride Along 2

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $110 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The first film was a surprise hit in the same frame two years ago and lightning is likely to strike twice. The question is will it outperform its predecessor or underperform. I’m leaning towards underperforming.”
Box Office Results: $90.9 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Better than most sequels these days, this result has to be something of a disappointment to those who hoped it would build upon its predecessor’s success.

January 22,2016

The Boy

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Apart from the curiosity factor, a horror film at this time of year isn’t the safest bet.”
Box Office Results: $35.8 M
Thoughts: [Success] This did much better at the box office than The Forest. It still wasn’t a huge success, but this might be enough to commission a follow-up film.

Dirty Grandpa

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. This genre has a solid track record, but never at this time of year. Why they chose to release this in January I don’t know; however, with the rest of the year jam-packed, the studio may be trying to open up earlier months for profit.”
Box Office Results: $35.6 M
Thoughts: [Flop] A poorly executed concept won’t always triumph at the box office, even if it’s an father-son comedy.

January 29,2016

Fifty Shades of Black

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Still None.
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Although the Wayans have had success in the past with their cinematic spoofs, the Haunted House films weren’t nearly as popular as they had hoped.”
Box Office Results: $11.7 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Parodies just can’t catch a break these days. It’s probably why we haven’t seen anything from the Scary Movie franchise in 3 years. Or found much box office success with Seltzer and Friedman.

The Finest Hours

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The effects might be enough to get it some attention, but a January release won’t keep it in the memory long enough to do much good.”
Oscar Results: Disney had high hopes for this real-life disaster drama. They were met with crushing defeat at the box office, which more than eliminates its chances with Oscar.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. There is an attempt to spread the box office calendar out over the year instead of stuffing it into two logical brackets (Summer and Winter). This may be an example of one of those attempts. It doesn’t have a lot going for it, but action/disaster stories can and do succeed, so anything is possible.”
Box Office Results: $27.6 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Period dramas, even ones set amidst great peril, just don’t seem to resonate with modern audiences. They keep trying to get Chris Pine a hit, but so far to no avail.

Kung Fu Panda 3

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. Both prior films in the series were Best Animated Feature Oscar nominees. I see no reason this one can’t be as well.”
Oscar Results: With a weakened box office tally, this franchise could struggle to earn its third Oscar nomination, a win definitely seems out of the question at this point.
Box Office Prospects: $160 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The first film was a huge hit. The second slid a bit, but was still successful. This third film may stabilize the slide, but we won’t know for certain how far off it will be (above or below) until its release.”
Box Office Results: $143.2 M
Thoughts: [Success] DreamWorks’ slide at the box office continues with the third film in the Kung Fu Panda franchise doing around $20 million less business than its predecessor. How to Train Your Dragons had a similar problem.

Jane Got a Gun

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Unlikely. The film feels like an Oscar contender on paper, but its lengthy shoot and troubled history suggests otherwise.”
Oscar Results: This long delayed film follows the same path as most long-delayed films and that will be doubly true for the Oscars.
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The film has been struggling to finish and find a release for way too long. Westerns aren’t that popular these days, so I wouldn’t expect much of a box office performance for this film.”
Box Office Results: $1.5 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] A feminist western isn’t likely to sell to modern audiences unless it’s a comedy and even the last one of those, A Million Ways to Die in the West, couldn’t manage much business.

Lights Out

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: N/A
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Of the three horror flicks releasing in January, this one has the best buzz surrounding it. The popular short film on which it was based has a creepy concept that could appeal to a finicky horror fanbase.”
Box Office Results: $N/A M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] DID NOT RELEASE