Dec. 4, 2015

Krampus

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Holiday-themed horror films don’t often do well at the box office, finding most of their support on DVD. This film should be no exception.”
Box Office Results: $42.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] It performed to expectations, which weren’t high. As a low-budget horror film, these numbers aren’t bad.

The Lady in the Van (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. Every time Maggie Smith makes a movie, there’s buzz that she could be an Oscar contender. However, this slight bitter old woman comedy doesn’t quite have the cachet to be a major Oscar player even with Smith in the lead. With so many competitors in Best Actress, it would be a shock to see her nominated.”
Oscar Results: Minor buzz didn’t do much for her.
Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Any attempt to turn this into the next Best Exotic Marigold Hotel are certain to be frustrated.”
Box Office Results: $9.8 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] In spite of her popularity in recent years, Maggie Smith still doesn’t have the ability to open a movie or help it perform that well.

Macbeth (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The scuttlebutt is that Harvey Weinstein is torpedoing the film’s Oscar chances. Why that would be when there are some solid possibilities for nominations is anyone’s guess. However, with the likes of Carol and The Hateful Eight, he has some decent opportunities for nominations even without this film.”
Oscar Results: Weinstein definitely ignored the film and, as such, it was nowhere to be seen.
Box Office Prediction: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Shakespeare doesn’t have a strong track record at the box office unless it’s spiffed up and modernized (like West Side Story or Baz Luhrmann’s Romeo & Juliet), so don’t expect this to do much in terms of box office.”
Box Office Results: $1.1 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Expectations were low to begin with, but the end result was even lower than that.

Youth (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. Paolo Sorrentino’s English-language feature starring Michael Caine and Harvey Keitel has drawn quite a bit of interest, but may be too esoteric for the Academy. Caine is competing for a Best Actor nomination as is Jane Fonda in Best Supporting Actress, predictions of which seems like a tough fit from all accounts. The film could nab a screenwriting nomination if nothing else.”
Oscar Results: In spite of some discussions of multiple nominations, the film ended up with only one: Best Original Song.
Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The film may star a recognizable face, but it’s still an indie film and unless you know who Paolo Sorrentino is, you aren’t likely to venture to the theater to see the film.”
Box Office Results: $2.7 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] No one really gave this much of a look, resulting in a rather low tally.

Dec. 11, 2015

In the Heart of the Sea

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Decent. Ron Howard’s deep sea adventure sounds an awful lot like Master and Commander in terms of its setting and cast. Additionally, the decision to move it from its early-year berth to one closer to Oscar season might have looked like a play for the Oscars. However, it’s more likely the film was moved to compete at the box office rather than at the Oscars. Sure, it will probably merit some technical nominations, but the film doesn’t quite seem like the prestige vehicle Master and Commander was in terms of its Oscar potential in up-ballot races.”
Oscar Results: Not only wasn’t it of Master and Commander prestige, it wasn’t even of Pirates of the Caribbean prestige, resulting in no nominations.
Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Like Master and Commander, the naval drama could have a nice run at the box office. I don’t think it will be a blockbuster, but it should do quite well.”
Box Office Results: $25.0 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Chris Hemsworth didn’t sell the film. Ron Howard didn’t sell the film. It should have been a decent hit, but it was a colossal failure.

The Big Short (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. When the film was announced for a late-year release, many heard the premise and the cast and thought it was sure to be a competitor for many Oscar nominations. However, as more has emerged, excitement seems to have waned a bit and being a dark comedy, no matter how blistering, it may struggle to make inroads with the Academy.”
Oscar Results: I will admit that when I wrote this in November of last year, the film had seemed to be sliding, but it managed to rally quite effectively and ended up as one of the year’s big nominations, even winning Best Adapted Screenplay.
Box Office Prediction: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. With this cast, you can believe it will have the potential to play well across the nation. Whether it can do so depends on a lot of factors, including how good it actually is.”
Box Office Results: $70.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] It out performed my expectations and, even though it didn’t top $100 million, $70 million is still excellent for a dense dramedy about the financial market collapse.

Dec. 18, 2015

Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prediction: $90 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Doubtful. The last film in the franchise took a huge tumble over its predecessor, but not before amassing enough money to assure a sequel. This fourth film will struggle mightily to justify itself and may ultimately finish under $100 million for the first time in the franchise’s history.”
Box Office Results: $85.9 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The franchise is dipping quickly. I suspect this may be the end of the road.

Sisters

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. Tina Fey and Amy Poehler are stellar together and the film looks like it could be much funnier than many of their individual separate outings. With few outright comedies in the offering around the holidays, it could be a sleeper.”
Box Office Results: $87.0 M
Thoughts: [Success] A solid performance at the box office that outperformed my meager expectations.

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Excellent. While predictions that the film will earn a Best Picture nomination may be fruitless, the film is sure to make a strong run in the creative categories from Best Original Score down to Best Visual Effects. It’s also likely to compete heavily in three or four of the categories.”
Oscar Results: Going home empty-handed, Star Wars: The Force Awakens was hardly a loser. It nabbed 5 Oscar nominations, which is equal to the total number of nominations given to the entire prequel trilogy. Everyone thought it was sure to win Best Visual Effects, but it lost out to a surprise win by Ex Machina
Box Office Prediction: $700 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. Based on inflation, the first prequel managed over $700 million at the box office. That seems completely do-able this time around, but whether it will top Jurassic World remains to be seen even if the Star Wars fans are some of the most die hard in the history of filmdom.”
Box Office Results: $936.1 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] It blew away the competition and expectations, though was that really going to be a surprise?

Son of Saul (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. Said to be the frontrunner for the Best Foreign Language Film Oscar, many believe the film could also make the rare foreign language appearance in Best Picture along with nominations in writing. Those prospects are a bit weaker in a heavy lineup, but I wouldn’t entirely count them out either.”
Oscar Results: As expected, it won the Oscar for Best Foreign Language Film. It did not, however, earn nominations outside of that category.
Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. With excellent reviews and a likely Oscar competition and victory, the film should do quite well for a foreign language film at the specialty box office.”
Box Office Results: $1.8 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] On the specialty circuit, foreign language films don’t have a lot of success, even as Oscar winners. This seems to be another prime example of that.

Dec. 25, 2015

Concussion

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Will Smith is doing quite well among prognosticators for his work in the film, leading to a raft of Best Actor nomination predictions. He isn’t likely to win and the film doesn’t look like it’s building sufficient buzz for nominations outside of Best Actor, though it could squeak out a handful.”
Oscar Results: Being frequently cited for nomination doesn’t help when A) your film receives mediocre reviews; B) your film can’t make a dent in the box office; and C) when there is heavy competition for five slots with too many potential nominees.
Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Will Smith has struggled in recent years to rebuild his box office dominance. This film could do it, but it could also easily fail. The question is how good it is and how many people want to see him in a drama with an accent. His prior dramatic offerings (not blockbusters) were more muted in their tallies, so I expect this to be as well.”
Box Office Results: $34.5 M
Thoughts: [Flop] A lack of strong reviews and a dry drama don’t make for a box office blockbuster even with Will Smith attached and even he has struggled lately with his traditional high-dollar work.

Daddy’s Home

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prediction: $120 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Will Ferrell still does excellent box office. Pair him with Mark Wahlberg and you could have a fairly strong box office performance.”
Box Office Results: $150.4 M
Thoughts: [Success] At first, it didn’t seem like it was going to be big, but upon release and strong holdover weekends, it became clear that it would be one of the few holiday hits.

Joy

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Excellent. Perennial Oscar contender David O. Russell is going for the gold once again with a surefire Best Picture contender and another chance for Jennifer Lawrence to extend her record of Oscar nominations at such a young age. That said, Russell is once again facing very stiff competition from some very serious contenders, including a frontrunner that recalls legendary Oscar nominees of the past, Spotlight.”
Oscar Results: Once the reviews came in, all our beliefs that this would be a major contender evaporated. It struggled at the box office and with critics and ultimately wound up with a single nomination for star Jennifer Lawrence.
Box Office Prediction: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. David O. Russell may not seem like the kind of director that delivers box office magic, but his films have all been wildly popular. While this film won’t have the level of cachet that American Hustle had, Jennifer Lawrence being the star that she is should help draw plenty of attention to the film, which will do quite well over the holidays.”
Box Office Results: $56.5 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Suffice it to say, the dull box office performance is entirely thanks to Lawrence. Clearly Russell’s streak has come to an end and perhaps it’s all because of his hubris.

Point Break

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. This remake of a film that no one really wanted may struggle to survive the holidays, but with decent reviews, it could perform adequately even without a major star on the roster.”
Box Office Results: $28.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Once again, a remake that no one asked for, but the studio felt would turn a tidy profit, has gone down in flames.

45 Years (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. There’s light buzz for Charlotte Rampling’s performance in the film, but the Best Actress race is chock full of strong contenders, something that may be tough to overcome.”
Oscar Results: With a ton of perfomers vying for a small number of slots, it seemed for awhile that Rampling would be the one left out. Ultimately, she pulled in just enough votes to secure a nod.
Box Office Prediction: $7 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. I’m reminded a bit of Amour here, a small foreign language film that did surprisingly well with Oscar and at the box office. This could do equally well, though without the Oscar competition giving it a boost.”
Box Office Results: $4.2 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Without the cross-category supporter, 45 Years came nowhere near replicating Amour‘s trajectory.

The Hateful Eight (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Excellent. Quentin Tarantino may not have always been an Oscar magnet, but these days, he cannot make a film without getting the Academy to pay attention to it. While this isn’t likely to earn him an Oscar for Best Director, it should be a strong contender in several categories for nominations and possibly even design category victories.”
Oscar Results: With some of his weakest reviews in years, Tarantino found himself shut out of several categories. The film only managed three nominations, but Ennio Morricone still managed to win his first competitive Oscar for Best Original Score, the film’s only victory.
Box Office Prediction: $95 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Quentin Tarantino’s films have been nothing if not solid hits at the box office. His last two films did so incredibly well that it would be shocking for this to underperform. Though, underperform it will. Nothing that made Inglourious Basterds or Django Unchained outsized hits seems to be present in this film. I suspect it will do better than his post-Pulp Fiction films, but not nearly as well as his prior two.”
Box Office Results: $54.1 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Yet another longtime box office dominant failed to spark interest at the box office. After a long string of hits, Tarantino’s eighth film had an anemic performance.

The Revenant (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Excellent. Hot off his Oscar win for Birdman, Alejandro González Iñárritu has been building plenty of buzz for his gritty revenge drama, which has hopes in several categories and which many believe may finally bring Leonardo DiCaprio his long-sought-after Oscar.”
Oscar Results: DiCaprio won, as expected and The Revenant also took Best Director, but even though it was the year’s most nominated film and many thought he would pull off the historic back-to-back Best Picture win, Inarritu and his film just couldn’t make it. The film managed the aforementioned two victories and a third for Best Cinematography. It was topped in Best Picture by Spotlight and in six tech categories by Mad Max: Fury Road.
Box Office Prediction: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. With Leonardo DiCaprio in the lead and a strong Oscar campaign in the offing, things should go quite well for this film. After all, DiCaprio is a certifiable box office star.”
Box Office Results: $183.5 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Major Success] There is no doubt now that Leonardo DiCaprio is the biggest guarantee of box office out there. With a subject matter that was dark, dreary and far from a typical audience-friendly affair, it managed to take in a staggering $180 million-plus haul. That’s truly impressive.