October 2, 2015

The Martian

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Solid. Ridley Scott returns to the sci-fi genre with a film that has been piquing curiosity since it started previews. Early word is that it could be quite good and that’s good news for Scott who hasn’t had a viable Oscar contender in some time. With the Academy’s new attention to the genre perhaps he’ll have another Best Picture nominee on his hands.”
Oscar Results: One of the year’s top Oscar nominees, including a Best Picture citation was precisely the kind of Oscar hit Scott had been missing. Unfortunately, the buzz leading up to the Oscar nominations suggested he might even get an Oscar nod for Best Director, as he did at the DGA. Yet, the Academy chose not to reward him, which set the film up to go empty-handed.
Box Office Prediction: $200 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. My original thought was to rank this as a sub-$100 million finisher. However, considering the buzz, I think it will do better than that. How much better I’m not sure, but I think my current prediction might be a bit of a low-ball estimate.”
Box Office Results: $228.4 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Success] In his first sci-fi film outside the Alien universe since 1982’s Blade Runner, Scott had his best Box Office performance in years. While The Martian is his top box office earner in raw dollars, adjusting for inflation, it comes in below Gladiator, Alien and Hannibal, so essentially doing his best in 14 years.

Freeheld (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. Reviews out of Toronto were disastrous. Before then, the film was considered a major player at the Oscars. Still, in spite of its poor performance at TIFF, it’s possible that both Julianne Moore and Ellen Page could still enter the Oscar conversation with Moore the more likely to be nominated.”
Oscar Results: The film was poorly received on release as well and while there was minor buzz for Moore and Page, neither managed to hold it through the precursors and came away with nothing.
Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. The film would have to be a critical success and an Oscar juggernaut to make more than a passable total at the box office. I suspect it won’t do terribly well.”
Box Office Results: $573 K
Thoughts: [Flop] Gay cinema is a tough sell and one with such dramatic elements may just not have seemed like something audiences wanted to see in the theater. On top of that, the negative reviews kept most everyone else away.

He Named Me Malala (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Malala has captured the hearts and minds of millions for her defiance of Taliban rules in her home nation. That powerful story might be the perfect subject matter for Academy voters. The problem is the film has to actually be good before they’ll give it much consideration. We’ll have to see when the critics start rolling out their reviews.”
Oscar Results: It was well reviewed, but not well enough. Picking up a smattering of precursors, the film ultimately failed to make the final five with the Academy.
Box Office Prediction: $2 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. For a documentary, it will likely do well. For a motion picture, I wouldn’t rank its chances very high of becoming the next Fahrenheit 9/11.”
Box Office Results: $2.7 M
Thoughts: [Success] As much as could be expected, the film was a box office success on the specialty circuit, but never broke out beyond that.

The Walk (Limited, Expanding 10/9/15)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Robert Zemeckis has an uneven history with the Oscars, going from huge recognition to none. His prowess in the technical categories is a little more solid, but still not a slam dunk. I suspect this film will be a strong contender for Best Visual Effects and possibly Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing; however, unless reviews are through the roof, I don’t expect it to show up anywhere else.”
Oscar Results: The reviews were good, but the box office was disastrous. It came close to a Best Visual Effects nomination, but ultimately walked away with nothing.
Box Office Prediction: $110 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Zemeckis may not be an Oscar darling, but he still has some clout with audiences and this film has been pushing itself hard to impress those afraid of heights and anyone looking for a thrill. Since it’s certain to deliver at least that much, I think it should do well, though too high a tally doesn’t seem likely so far.”
Box Office Results: $10.1 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] On a production budge of $35 million, audiences weren’t enthused about watching death-defying stunts atop the World Trade Center. Whether this was from those reluctant to want to watch something that reminds them of 9/11 or is hard to know.

October 9, 2015

My All American

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Sports films aren’t big sellers, especially when they’re without a strong lead actor at the fore that everyone recognizes. This one only has Aaron Eckhart and he has no mobile fan base to deliver receipts.”
Box Office Results: $2.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] It was pushed back and still managed to make next to nothing.

Pan

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Decent. The film has a chance at several below-the-line nominations, but that’s as far as the film will go.”
Oscar Results: Even though it seemed like a safe bet for craft categories, the film’s awful reviews and poor box office doomed it.
Box Office Prediction: $120 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. This looks like quite an adventure, which could give it legs at the box office. Hook, which at least had Spielberg at the helm, pulled in about this much in its box office run back in 1991. Inflation would put it much higher, but I don’t think this film will stand a chance of reaching Hook‘s heights.”
Box Office Results: $35.1 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] You don’t find success if you can’t find good reviews. The critics eviscerated the film and, as a result, it flopped immediately upon release.

Steve Jobs

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. Word out of Toronto is that this film is not only good, but has a strong chance at earning Michael Fassbender an Oscar nomination and possibly even an award. With Oscar winner Danny Boyle in the director’s chair and with Oscar and Emmy winner Aaron Sorking behind the screenplay, you have a film with strong changes at multiple nominations, even possibly pulling other cast members along.”
Oscar Results: It was shaping up to be a strong contender, but even when the film managed to secure only two nominations, neither of which were for the script, it seemed like the film was doomed. Some thought Kate Winslet could pull out a victory after her Golden Globe and BAFTA victories, but it wasn’t to be.
Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. As beloved a figure as Steve Jobs is, a box office draw he’s not. A solid push for Oscar consideration might net the film a much higher box office tally, but right now, I’m gauging this as a modest potential performer.”
Box Office Results: $17.8 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] The awful Jobs may have hindered this film’s chances at the box office along with audiences not particularly interested in chatty movies, even about their own icons. That it was a warts-and-all biopic also hurt it even if the critics loved it.

October 16, 2015

Bridge of Spies

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. Steven Spielberg is like Oscar catnip. His films have been routinely nominated even when they haven’t been that great. However, this film looks like Spielberg doing what he does best, which could be just enough to propel it into serious consideration for several Oscar nominations.”
Oscar Results: The Oscars responded just as expected, 6 nominations on the film, including Best Picture. It made a play for several awards, but came out with a single victory for Mark Rylance as Best Supporting Actor. Spielberg himself wasn’t even nominated.
Box Office Prediction: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. While his less recognizable films of the last two decades have failed to breakout at the box office, Spielberg has consistently drawn big numbers. This movie looks like it could be another strong performer for Spielberg, hot on the heels of his surprisingly huge tally for historical drama Lincoln three years ago.”
Box Office Results: $72.3 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Not exactly a great box office performance for Spielberg, it’s on par with a lot of his other recent offerings.

Crimson Peak

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Guillermo del Toro isn’t a box office draw, nor is he an Oscar favorite. His genre history has shown no tendency towards Oscar attention and this film doesn’t seem to have a much better shot. However, early word is that it’s quite good, which might be just enough to get it into some lower categories like Bram Stoker’s Dracula did back in 1992.”
Oscar Results: Nothing seemed to go right for Crimson Peak this year. While early word was positive, the film eked out a slightly positive favorability rating while tanking at the box office. It could have still gotten nominated, but competition was too fierce in the craft categories.
Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. The closest comparison to a film of this type by a major director is Bram Stoker’s Dracula more than two decades ago. The similarities are strong and that film made over $80 million on a $30 million opening. Double those figures and you have approximately what the film would have done today. I could see Crimson Peak doing similar business, but I could also imagine it struggling to find a foothold.”
Box Office Results: $31.1 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Atmospheric horror typically has a stronger box office presence than this, but the results aren’t very encouraging. Of course, the trailers might have overplayed the style and underplayed the creepiness, and that likely hurt the film.

Goosebumps

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prediction: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Jack Black is no Robin Williams and even he couldn’t manage more than a soft $11 million opening back in 1995 for Jumanji, a film with distinct similarities to this one. Still, that movie topped $100 million (barely), so it’s safe to assume that the combination of teen danger and comedy could give the film a healthy boost at the box office.”
Box Office Results: $80.1 M
Thoughts: [Success] While it didn’t match my expectations, it’s clear the film performed well with audiences, especially when compared to most of the other films released during this period.

Truth (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Another film dealing with a journalism story this year may steal all the thunder while this film takes a few small opportunities at a handful of nominations, but I doubt there will be many.”
Oscar Results: The film imploded after a weak festival run, critics dismissed the film even while giving Cate Blanchett strong marks.
Box Office Prediction: $1 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. It’s not the 1970s or 1980s anymore and films like All the President’s Men and Broadcast News aren’t very popular these days. Released outside the November/December prestige window may harm its chances.”
Box Office Results: $2.5 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] It had a decent run at the specialty box office, but with this type of star power, it could have been something more had it not tanked with critics.

October 23, 2015

Burnt

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. On name recognition alone, this should be a hit. Bradley Cooper is one of the most consistent names working today. However, the film has struggled with name changes and being dumped on a heavy release weekend. Critics haven’t weighed in, but I suspect they won’t be impressed, which will ultimately depress the film’s potential.”
Box Office Results: $13.7 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Not even Bradley Cooper can save a film when the critics are unkind and this one was very much disliked by critics, burning all bridges to audiences and earning a paltry sum as a result.

Jem and the Holograms

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. While young women may flock to the film in droves, I suspect that’s the extent of its capabilities. Fans of the original 1980s cartoon have been disenchanted by the film’s complete departure from the original plot, so nostalgia won’t play a part in the film’s success, which will ultimately doom it.”
Box Office Results: $2.2 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] One of the worst reviewed films of the year, Jem betrayed its source material and paid the ultimate price. Even young women weren’t drawn to the feature, which might have had a better shot had they not shoehorned the characters into an already-written script.

The Last Witch Hunter

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Vin Diesel is quite popular, but to draw audiences to a fantasy film like this will require more than his natural charisma and familiarity to audiences. It will still likely do well, but I doubt it will be a break-out hit.”
Box Office Results: $27.4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Even underperforming would have been a good thing. This film missed all of its targets thanks to terrible reviews and audiences who want something a little more high quality for their dollar.

Paranormal Activity: Ghost Dimension

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Dubious. The franchise is on fumes. Its last few entries have been disappointments and the fact that they have stopped numbering the films and been searching for gimmicks suggests it’s out of steam.”
Box Office Results: $18.3 M
Thoughts: [Flop] I think it’s safe to say now that unless you are the original Paranormal Activity, you aren’t going to be a success and even if you don’t have a subtitle, even that’s not a guarantee.

Rock the Kasbah

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Bill Murray is popular, but not enough to drive box office revenue. The last film he headlined only made $44 million, which means his potential isn’t very high and with the film’s premise, I don’t think he can overcome audience reluctance.”
Box Office Results: $3.0 M
Thoughts: [Flop] I can’t remember the last time Bill Murray was an actual success. Outside of being part of an ensemble in a film that’s sold more on that fact than his presence, his last solo hit was Groundhog Day 22 years ago.

Suffragette (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Strong. While the film hasn’t gotten rave reviews, they are respectable and all of them center on the powerhouse of Carey Mulligan. Being a period film about women’s rights, I suspect it will get a much bigger push than it might otherwise have gotten, which could put it into contention for even more categories.”
Oscar Results: With too many other critically acclaimed films, even a strong push by the studio left the film unrewarded at the Oscars.
Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. I want to predict bounteous amounts of box office bucks, but something about the period nature of the film leads me to believe that unless it’s a frontrunner for the Oscars, it probably won’t make much money.”
Box Office Results: $4.7 M
Thoughts: [Flop] It wasn’t a breakout hit at the box office, but its specialty box office numbers were decent, which is all you can expected when critical acclaim is muted.

October 30, 2015

Collide (Formerly “Autobahn”)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Pulled from the release schedule.
Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. A title change doesn’t help, nor does the fact that the film hasn’t seen much in the way of an advertising blitz. I’m probably over-selling its potential even with the pittance I’ve predicted.”
Thoughts: Pulled from the release schedule.

Our Brand Is Crisis

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. While Sandra Bullock has entered the Oscar conversation for this film, I wonder just how strong her brand can carry her for a film that doesn’t seem to have a lot of other Oscar prospects.”
Oscar Results: The brief flirtation prognosticators had with her as a potential nominee were dashed when the film opened to awful reviews and a dreadful box office performance.
Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Sandra Bullock is popular, but this genre of film hasn’t had a lot of success in recent years, especially for films that aren’t actual satires.”
Box Office Results: $7.0 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] You cannot escape reviews, even if you’re Sandra Bullock. While many of her hugely popular films haven’t been well supported by critics, the comedies sold quite well while everything else did poorly. For a wide release, this performance is really bad.

Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: None.
Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Themed horror comedies aren’t always popular with audiences, especially when the marketplace is overcrowded with regular horror films. Not much is out there about the film, which could also hamper its potential.”
Box Office Results: $3.7 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Zombies don’t sell. That’s not entirely true, they sometimes do. However, when the zombie entertainment is poorly reviewed and doesn’t pique the interests of regular moviegoing audiences, it’s bound to underperform…or bomb like this one did.