Now that the nominations have been announced, we are able to take our first look at the current state of the Oscar race. We’ll present our current winner predictions and our runner-up predictions, those we think could upset if there is to be one.

Looking over our initial lists, it’s clear that many races aren’t very settled, especially down-ballot categories. There were a handful of places where we agreed 100%: Best Animated Feature, Best Actor, Best Actress (and its runner-up), Best Original Screenplay, Best Original Song, Best Makeup & Hairstyling (runner-up only), Best Foreign Language Film (and its runner-up), and Best Documentary Feature.

Seven out of twenty-four is a strong number of unified selections, but it’s in the many other categories where we disagree completely that things get rough. While we don’t split four-ways on any one winner prediction, our runner-up predictions in Best Director, Best Costume Design, and Best Sound Mixing show there’s still some big confusion over what’s bubbling under.

Not insignificant are the categories were we divert three ways for the winner predictions: Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Original Score, Best Production Design, Best Sound Mixing, Best Sound Editing, Best Documentary Short Subject, and Best Animated Short Film. Some of these are evenly split for the runners-up meaning several tight races are still in play.

Perhaps the guild awards will clear things up, but until then, some things just seem murky.

KEY:

Best Picture

• The Big Short
• Bridge of Spies
• Brooklyn
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Martian
• The Revenant (TL O)
• Room
• Spotlight (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)

Runners Up

• The Big Short (TB O)
• Brooklyn (PP O)
• The Revenant (WL O)
• Spotlight (TL O)

Best Animated Feature

• Anomalisa
• Boy and the World
• Inside Out (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Shaun the Sheep Movie
• When Marnie Was There

Runners Up

• Anomalisa (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• When Marnie Was There (PP O)

Best Director

• Lenny Abrahamson – Room
• Alejandro G. Inarritu – The Revenant (TL O)
• Tom McCarthy – Spotlight (PP O) (TB O)
• Adam McKay – The Big Short
• George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road (WL O)

Runners Up

• Lenny Abrahamson – Room (PP O)
• Alejandro G. Inarritu – The Revenant (WL O)
• Adam McKay – The Big Short (TB O)
• George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road (TL O)

Best Actor

• Bryan Cranston – Trumbo
• Matt Damon – The Martian
• Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
• Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl

Runners Up

• Bryan Cranston – Trumbo (TL O)
• Matt Damon – The Martian (TB O)
• Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs (WL O) (PP O)

Best Actress

• Cate Blanchett – Carol
• Brie Larson – Room (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Jennifer Lawrence – Joy
• Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years
• Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn

Runners Up

• Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Best Supporting Actor

• Christian Bale – The Big Short
• Tom Hardy – The Revenant
• Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight (WL O)
• Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Sylvester Stallone – Creed

Runners Up

• Tom Hardy – The Revenant (TB O)
• Sylvester Stallone – Creed (WL O) (PP O)(TL O)

Best Supporting Actress

• Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
• Rooney Mara – Carol (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• Rachel McAdams – Spotlight
• Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl (TL O)
• Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs

Runners Up

• Rooney Mara – Carol (TL O)
• Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)

Best Original Screenplay

• Bridge of Spies
• Ex Machina
• Inside Out
• Spotlight (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Straight Outta Compton

Runners Up

• Ex Machina (PP O) (TB O)
• Inside Out (WL O)(TL O)

Best Adapted Screenplay

• The Big Short (WL O) (TB O)
• Brooklyn (PP O)
• Carol
• The Martian
• Room (TL O)

Runners Up

• The Big Short (TL O)
• Carol (PP O) (TB O)
• Room (WL O)

Best Original Score

• Bridge of Spies
• Carol (PP O)
• The Hateful Eight (WL O)(TL O)
• Sicario
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens (TB O)

Runners Up

• Carol (WL O)
• The Hateful Eight (PP O) (TB O)
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens (TL O)

Best Original Song

• “Earned It” – Fifty Shades of Grey
• “Manta Ray” – Racing Extinction
• “Simple Song #3” – Youth
• “Til It Happens to You” – The Hunting Ground (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• “Writing’s On the Wall” – Spectre

Runners Up

• “Simple Song #3” – Youth (TB O)
• “Writing’s On the Wall” – Spectre (WL O) (PP O)(TL O)

Best Film Editing

• The Big Short
• Mad Max: Fury Road (WL O)(TL O)
• The Revenant (PP O) (TB O)
• Spotlight
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Runners Up

• The Big Short (WL O)
• Mad Max: Fury Road (TB O)
• Spotlight (PP O)(TL O)

Best Cinematography

• Carol
• The Hateful Eight
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Revenant (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Sicario (PP O)

Runners Up

• Carol (TL O)
• The Hateful Eight (TB O)
• Mad Max: Fury Road (WL O)
• The Revenant (PP O)

Best Production Design

• Bridge of Spies
• The Danish Girl (TL O)
• Mad Max: Fury Road (WL O) (TB O)
• The Martian (PP O)
• The Revenant

Runners Up

• Bridge of Spies (WL O) (PP O)
• Mad Max: Fury Road (TL O)
• The Revenant (TB O)

Best Costume Design

• Carol (WL O) (PP O)(TL O)
• Cinderella (TB O)
• The Danish Girl
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Revenant

Runners Up

• Carol (TB O)
• Cinderella (TL O)
• The Danish Girl (PP O)
• Mad Max: Fury Road (WL O)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared (PP O)
• Mad Max: Fury Road (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Revenant

Runners Up

• The Revenant (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Best Sound Mixing

• Bridge of Spies (PP O)
• Mad Max: Fury Road (TB O) (TL O)
• The Martian
• The Revenant
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens (WL O)

Runners Up

• Mad Max: Fury Road (WL O)
• The Martian (PP O)
• The Revenant (TB O)
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens (TL O)

Best Sound Editing

• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Martian (PP O)
• The Revenant (TB O)
• Sicario
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens (WL O)(TL O)

Runners Up

• Mad Max: Fury Road (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)
• The Revenant (PP O)

Best Visual Effects

• Ex Machina (PP O)
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Martian
• The Revenant
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)

Runners Up

• Mad Max: Fury Road (WL O)(TL O)
• The Martian (PP O) (TB O)

Best Foreign Language Film

• Embrace of the Serpent
• Mustang
• Son of Saul (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Theeb
• A War

Runners Up

• Mustang (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)

Best Documentary Feature

• Amy (WL O) (PP O) (TB O) (TL O)
• Cartel Land
• The Look of Silence
• What Happened, Miss Simone?
• Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

Runners Up

• The Look of Silence (WL O) (PP O)(TL O)
• Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom (TB O)

Best Documentary Short Subject

• Body Team 12 (TB O) (TL O)
• Chau, Beyond the Lines
• Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
• A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness (WL O)
• Last Day of Freedom (PP O)

Runners Up

• Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah (WL O) (TB O)
• A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness (PP O)(TL O)

Best Animated Short Film

• Bear Story
• Prologue
• Sanjay’s Super Team (TB O)
• We Can’t Live Without Cosmos (PP O)
• World of Tomorrow (WL O)(TL O)

Runners Up

• Sanjay’s Super Team (WL O)(TL O)
• World of Tomorrow (PP O) (TB O)

Best Live-Action Short Film

• Ave Maria (PP O)(TL O)
• Day One
• Everything Will Be Okay
• Shok
• Stutterer (WL O) (TB O)

Runners Up

• Day One (TB O)
• Everything Will Be Okay (PP O)
• Shok (WL O)(TL O)