July 1, 2015

Magic Mike XXL

Box Office Prediction: $120 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Women aren’t given nearly enough credit for their ability to bring massive cash to the box office. Magic Mike showed this to be a bad way of thinking. The sequel is certain to do some strong business, but will Matthew McConaughey’s absence hinder the film?”
Box Office Results: $66.0 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The year of reboot and sequel flops. More often than not, the sequels and reboots released this year were all failures. This and Terminator Genisys started the month of July, the Independence Day holiday, with a whimper.

Terminator Genisys

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Terminator 2 was a watershed film in terms of visual effects. However, the rest of the franchise has been hard-pressed to find Oscar consideration. While this film looks more in T2‘s vein, I doubt that it will succeed at the Oscars.”
Oscar Results: A box office flop won’t help the film gain traction.
Box Office Prediction: $200 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. This franchise has been quite profitable and although it’s been awhile since it was last seen in the theater, nostalgia should be high enough to bring boatloads to the theater.”
Box Office Results: $89.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] A costly misstep in an attempt to reboot the once venerable franchise. It may not prevent a sequel, but it will make the studio question how it goes about creating one.

July 10, 2015

The Gallows

Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. A horror film with minimal press isn’t likely to sell a lot of tickets. So far there hasn’t been much in the press about it, not even a trailer.”
Box Office Results: $22.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Horror films are cheap to make and are sometimes immense successes. This wasn’t one of them.

Minions

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Solid. Chalk this one up as an early contender for a Best Animated Feature nomination. However, I wouldn’t expect it to win and bad reviews could keep it out of the competition altogether.”
Oscar Results: The mediocre reviews won’t help the film. It still has a shot at a nomination, but those chances are weaker than they were back in July.
Box Office Prediction: $300 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. The two Despicable Me films did superb box office. While this doesn’t include Gru, it does include the very lovable and very popular Minions. Add in the voice of Sandra Bullock and it should have little trouble turning a tidy profit.”
Box Office Results: $335.8 M
Thoughts: [Success] Even poor reviews couldn’t stop this juggernaut franchise from making tons of money.

Self/less

Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Ryan Reynolds isn’t a box office draw and the film doesn’t have the cachet to be a box office over-performer, so I don’t expect much.”
Box Office Results: $12.8 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] I should have expected less. This tally would be expected of a limited release, not a wide one.

July 17, 2015

Ant-Man

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Decent. Another potential Oscar nominee based on past history, but Honey, I Shrunk the Kids and Innerspace were so long ago that I doubt the Academy is looking forward to recognizing another miniaturization film.”
Oscar Results: The competition will be tough this year and while I suspect the film will make the winnowing cut, I am dubious as to its chances of a nomination.
Box Office Prediction: $165 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. It’s Marvel, so it’s definitely going to be a hit. The question is: “how big?” Unlike Guardians of the Galaxy, I don’t think this film will have the ability to dominate the box office.”
Box Office Results: $180.0 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Success] Performing higher than my expectations, the lighter humor of this film may have given it an extra boost at the box office.

Trainwreck

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: The film has managed some chatter about a screenwriting nomination for Amy Schumer. I’m not certain that it will happen, but it’s a nice thought.
Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. The headlines are going to write themselves for this film, which can’t help but be diminished alongside the weekend’s other wide release, but wasn’t likely to perform well even with a title and release date change.”
Box Office Results: $110.0 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] Color me surprised. Not only was the film surprisingly good, it was a huge box office winner all on the strength of Amy Schumer’s comedic and writing skills.

Mr. Holmes (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. In spite of the negative press the film has received for its potential use of copyrighted material, the film looks like a charming one. As such, it’s possible that it makes it to the end of the year with enough attention to become an Oscar contender at least for Ian McKellen’s performance as the film’s early release may be a hindrance.”
Oscar Results: The early release was indeed a hindrance as the film has been slowly slipping in memory, which won’t enable it to score much at the Oscars this year.
Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. It may take time to get going at the specialty box office, but I imagine the film will pique a lot of interests, though a major blockbuster it won’t be.”
Box Office Results: $17.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] For a specialty box office film, this is undeniably a hit. It might not have lived up to my expectations, but these numbers aren’t bad.

July 24, 2015

Paper Towns

Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The novel on which the film is based is highly popular, which should allow it to do well with demos not interested in either Pixels or Southpaw.”
Box Office Results: $32.0 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Is the teen audience losing its interest in the movies. This film should have been a charmer, but poor reviews and little word of mouth made it a flop.

Pixels

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. Can video game movies win Oscars? When Adam Sandler’s involved, I doubt it, but Click got an Oscar nomination in Makeup, so anything is possible and a Best Visual Effects nomination is certainly doable all things considered.”
Oscar Results: A poorly reviewed film doesn’t do very well with the Oscars, especially not in a world with so many excellent films with great visual effects.
Box Office Prediction: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. While it may be a case for Adam Sandler to finally win again at the box office, its returns are likely to be muted when compared to video game-themed films like Wreck-It Ralph do well, but not disproportionately well.”
Box Office Results: $78.7 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Adam Sandler just isn’t the box office king he used to be. Even he couldn’t sell this alien invasion drama built around a video game premise.

Southpaw

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Jake Gyllenhaal has been building buzz for his performance and after being neglected for Nightcrawler, it’s entirely possible that he gets a nomination for it, but releasing so early is dangerous and the film will need lots of strong reviews to make it much further than that.”
Oscar Results: Apart from Gyllenhaal’s performance, the film got terrible reviews, which puts it squarely in the to-be-forgotten category.
Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. While Gyllenhaal had a modest hit with last year’s Nightcrawler, this film will be a tougher sell since it’s a boxing drama and those don’t frequently over-perform at the box office.”
Box Office Results: $52.4 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Audiences turned out, just not in the numbers I had expected. This tally isn’t bad, but it’s not great either.

July 31, 2015

Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. The franchise hasn’t done well with the Oscars, though if it’s as good as its predecessor, things could change. My doubts are high, however.”
Oscar Results: It wasn’t received nearly as well as the previous film and little about the film seems startling enough to grab voters’ attentions.
Box Office Prediction: $170 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The Mission: Impossible films have always done solid business at the box office and now that Tom Cruise has found his footing as an actor again, this one should do fairly well.”
Box Office Results: $195.0 M
Thoughts: [Success] Easily topping expectations, the near-$200 million finish secures the franchise’s viability for the foreseeable future.

Vacation

Box Office Prediction: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. I hope the film does well, but I suspect those who are fans of the original will turn their noses up at this one, which will force it to compete for audiences that don’t normally go to this type of film. However, I suspect it will do well enough, just not become the kind of blockbuster the studio might hope.”
Box Office Results: $58.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Nostalgia is a wonderful thing, but tampering with the formula, making it more gross-out than slapstick, wasn’t a wise idea and audiences largely rejected it.