The end of the year brings the most combative environment for films trying to become Oscar winners. The next four months will be an interesting proving round.

November 6-8, 2015

The Outskirts

Premise: From IMDb: “After falling victim to a humiliating prank by the high school Queen Bee, best friends and world-class geeks, Mindy and Jodi, decide to get their revenge by uniting the outcasts of the school against her and her circle of friends.”
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: Poor. Teen-centric films are hit-or-miss, but mostly miss. Will this film buck the tradition? That it hasn’t been well advertised yet, suggests it probably won’t.
Oscar Prospects: None.

The Peanuts Movie

Premise: From IMDb: “Snoopy embarks upon his greatest mission as he and his team take to the skies to pursue their arch-nemesis, while his best pal Charlie Brown begins his own epic quest back home.”
Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Computer animation is big and even mediocre films tend to do well. However, converting a 2D comic strip into a 3D movie has plenty of challenges and it will have to be perfectly constructed and written to really engender love among the many “Peanuts” fans out there.
Oscar Prospects: Good. While the film could be a flop with critics, I doubt it will be. If it is, its Oscar chances vanish. If it’s decently well received, it should pull enough appreciation for the source material to be a player for a nomination.

Spectre

Premise: From IMDb: “A cryptic message from Bond’s past sends him on a trail to uncover a sinister organization. While M battles political forces to keep the secret service alive, Bond peels back the layers of deceit to reveal the terrible truth behind SPECTRE”
Box Office Prospects: $180 M
Expectations: Good. While Skyfall was a huge hit at the box office, other recent outings suggest a more moderate level of success for this film. Will residual good will from Skyfall make this a bigger hit than others in recent memory? Maybe, but I don’t think it will help that much. It will be very hard to build on the success of its predecessor.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. Skyfall became the first Bond film to win Oscars. Most other films in the genre fair poorly and with the zeitgeist moment the prior film created, it’s possible it was a one-off. A handful of nominations is possible, but I doubt it will do as incredibly well as Skyfall.

Spotlight (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “The true story of how the Boston Globe uncovered the massive scandal of child molestation and cover-up within the local Catholic Archdiocese, shaking the entire Catholic Church to its core.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Even if it becomes the frontrunner for the Oscars, the film still will struggle for acceptance in the marketplace. This type of film just doesn’t ignite enthusiasm from audiences anymore. Long gone are the days of All the President’s Men and Broadcast News.
Oscar Prospects: Strong. Early word is that this is one of the best films about journalism ever, which gives it some room to maneuver in the Oscar race this year. A topical subject and familiar actors working at the top of their game could be a genuine contender for several awards.

Trumbo (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “The successful career of Hollywood screenwriter, Dalton Trumbo, comes to an end when he is blacklisted in the 1940s for being a Communist.”
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Expectations: Weak. If journalism has faded as a serious competitor in the marketplace, films about Hollywood are even more difficult to market. The last real success at the box office was L.A. Confidential, which managed $64 million at the box office (adjusted to $116 million). That’s largely due to a huge marketing push after it swept the critics’ awards and became a big Oscar competitor. That doesn’t seem like the kind of situation Trumbo will face, so don’t expect much.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. The film hasn’t generated much heat, which means it’s probably not much of a contender. It has an excellent cast and is about an era of Hollywood history that is looked back on with some frustration, but that’s not going to be enough to sway Oscar voters. Even the older ones will want a good movie, which there’s no indication this will be one yet.

November 13-15, 2015

The 33

Premise: From IMDb: “Based on the real-life event, when a gold and copper mine collapses, it traps 33 miners underground for 69 days.”
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: Uncertain. While certain Spanish-language films have performed very well with Hispanic audiences, ones in English have not. This falls into that category, yet not exactly. While the subject revolves around Chilean miners, it has a very Hollywood style gloss to it that reminds of films from the 1980s. Will it be one that draws an audience, I doubt it.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. I once thought this film, with its penchant for inciting audience waterworks might be a big contender at the Oscars, it’s been so inconspicuous in its advertising that I’m beginning to believe the film may not be good enough.

By the Sea

Premise: From IMDb: “Set in France during the mid-1970s, Vanessa, a former dancer, and her husband Roland, an American writer, travel the country together. They seem to be growing apart, but when they linger in one quiet, seaside town they begin to draw close to some of its more vibrant inhabitants, such as a local bar/café-keeper and a hotel owner.”
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Few romantic comedies are box office smashes, but this one certainly could be. After Angelina Jolie’s prior to directorial efforts were a flop and a wild success respectively, she’s now paired with husband Brad Pitt and the two of them are sure to generate interest in the public eye. How big a hit remains to be seen, but I’m leaning towards decently successful at this juncture.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. At the beginning of the season, everyone though Unbroken would be a major contender and might nab Angelina Jolie a Best Director nomination on top of it all. However, critics weren’t impressed even if audiences were, which kept it from rallying much support with the Academy. It still picked up three Oscar nominations, but they were all in creative categories. This time around, her film hasn’t been seen and no one is certain if this will be a reverse of course from her prior failure or a new direction. We shall see.

Love the Coopers

Premise: From IMDb: “When four generations of the Cooper clan come together for their annual Christmas Eve celebration, a series of unexpected visitors and unlikely events turn the night upside down, leading them all toward a surprising rediscovery of family bonds and the spirit of the holiday.”
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Expectations: Uncertain. While the combination of stellar cast and holiday excitement might be a recipe for success, a lot of similar films haven’t been so well received in recent years. The Family Stone might be the best comparison with its $60 million tally ten years ago. With inflation adjustments, it wouldn’t match my current prediction, but Ed Helms has had a string of successes with only the Vacation remake a recent disappointment.
Oscar Prospects: None.

My All American

Premise: From IMDb: “Freddie Steinmark, an underdog on the gridiron, faces the toughest challenge of his life after leading his team to a championship season.”
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Weak. Inspirational sports dramas are only inspirational to studio executives, because audiences just aren’t that impressed with them. Few have become major hits and fewer still have managed better than average returns. This one doesn’t look like it will buck the trend.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Heist (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A father is without the means to pay for his daughter’s medical treatment. As a last resort, he partners with a greedy co-worker to rob a casino. When things go awry they’re forced to hijack a city bus.”
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Expectations: Weak. How can you go wrong with Robert De Niro? By releasing your heist film in limited venues hoping to build word of mouth. Films that don’t open wide in this genre tend to underperform those that do. If it was truly a quality film, we’d be seeing it in wide release. Ergo, I doubt it will do much business.
Oscar Prospects: None.

November 20-22, 2015

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2

Premise: From IMDb: “After being symbolized as the “Mockingjay”, Katniss Everdeen and District 13 engage in an all-out revolution against the autocratic Capitol.”
Box Office Prospects: $450 M
Expectations: Strong. The first two films in the franchise topped $400 million easily, but part 1 of the finale significantly underperformed. That should be rectified this time around. How far above $400 it goes is anyone’s guess, but based on past performance of franchise-capping films, it’s very likely the film soars well past the second film and tops all of them.
Oscar Prospects: None.

The Night Before

Premise: From IMDb: “In New York City for their annual tradition of Christmas Eve debauchery, three lifelong best friends set out to find the Holy Grail of Christmas parties since their yearly reunion might be coming to an end.”
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Expectations: Solid. The slacker subgenre has done solid business the last few years and with the tropes being applied to a holiday film, it should continue the trend. Whether it’s a bigger hit than predicted remains to be seen.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Secret in Their Eyes

Premise: From IMDb: “A tight-knit team of rising investigators, along with their supervisor, is suddenly torn apart when they discover that one of their own teenage daughters has been brutally murdered.”
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Expectations: Uncertain. It could be a big hit. It could be a big flop. Trailers haven’t been very effective and the buzz surrounding the film has been minimal so far. In the next month, this could improve, but based on the talent involved, I’m predicting a modest performance.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. The Spanish-language film on which this movie was based was an Oscar winner for Best Foreign Language Film for Argentina. Of course, the Academy can’t recognize this one there and the film has an upward battle against serious prestige pictures in the offing for later this year. It could nab some support, but I doubt it will make much headway unless it’s a qualified critical success.

Carol (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “Set in 1950s New York, a department-store clerk who dreams of a better life falls for an older, married woman.”
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: Decent. This type of film doesn’t do well at the general box office, but typically performs excellently at the specialty box office. With Oscar attention, the film will climb higher than it might otherwise, but it still won’t get as high as it probably deserves.
Oscar Prospects: Solid. Todd Haynes’ third film, Velvet Goldmine picked up a single nomination at the Oscars. His fourth, Far From Heaven, took four nominations. His fifth film only garnered one. Now, his sixth big screen outing, an unqualified success at Cannes earlier this year, is sure to compete in several categories and may result in his largest number of nominations to date. The problem is, his films have so far gone home empty-handed. It’s possible that Rooney Mara breaks that logjam for him, but it’s only if she’s nominated in Best Supporting Actress, a case of category fraud if there ever was one. The film could earn wins in some creative categories, but ultimately its best shot remains with Mara.

Legend (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “The film tells the story of the identical twin gangsters Reggie and Ronnie Kray, two of the most notorious criminals in British history, and their organised crime empire in the East End of London during the 1960s.”
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Tom Hardy has no box office guarantee and the film doesn’t look like something mass audiences will watch unless it earns a lot of praise. Since the festivals generated very muted buzz, I doubt it will do that well.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. At one point, Tom Hardy was considered a strong contender for a Best Actor nomination, possibly even a win, for his dual performance in the film. However, coming out the festival, the film seems to have faded quickly, meaning it’s unlikely to produce much Oscar consideration unless critics groups line up behind it.

November 25-28, 2015

Creed

Premise: From IMDb: “The former World Heavyweight Champion Rocky Balboa serves as a trainer and mentor to Adonis Johnson, the son of his late friend and former rival Apollo Creed.”
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Expectations: Solid. The Rocky franchise is a strong performer, but without that character in the title and only in a supporting role, it might be harder to convince people to turn out, just love they didn’t seem to love Stallone’s last outing in the franchise.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. The original film was an Oscar winner for Best Picture. None of the subsequent films have been other than the odd Best Original Song nomination. While I wouldn’t expect this film to match the original, if it’s any good, critics could help bolster high box office and an attempt to get it recognized in Best Picture or even Best Actor.

The Good Dinosaur

Premise: From IMDb: “An epic journey into the world of dinosaurs where an Apatosaurus named Arlo makes an unlikely human friend.”
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Expectations: Solid. Pixar has a sterling track record, but they’ve usually released films in the Summer. This time out, they are releasing their second film this year and it’s the much-delayed The Good Dinosaur. A lot has been written about the bizarre mix of childish animation and beautiful background designs. The dichotomy could be enough to keep it from soaring, but if it’s even slightly good, it could still perform well.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. Inside Out is Pixar’s ace in the hole this year and no other film has a chance of toppling it for the win. Disney will certainly get this film nominated, but a win is out of the question and if they aren’t careful and critics hate it, it could miss Best Animated Feature altogether.

Victor Frankenstein

Premise: From IMDb: “Told from Igor’s perspective, we see the troubled young assistant’s dark origins, his redemptive friendship with the young medical student Viktor Von Frankenstein, and become eyewitnesses to the emergence of how Frankenstein became the man – and the legend – we know today.”
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: Uncertain. There’s a small audience for period horror films and even more limited one for horror comedy. That this looks a decent amount like the box office mediocrity of Dracula Untold, I suspect it could perform about on par with that film.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. If it’s any good, it could be a contender in several creative categories. Beyond that, its chances are slim.

November 27-28, 2015

The Danish Girl (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “The remarkable love story inspired by the lives of artists Lili Elbe and Gerda Wegener. Lili and Gerda’s marriage and work evolve as they navigate Lili’s groundbreaking journey as a transgender pioneer.”
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Expectations: Uncertain. If marketed correctly, it could do slightly worse business than The Imitation Game. However, it’s also possible it performs as poorly as The Theory of Everything.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. If this film had been released by Harvey Weinstein, we’d be talking about a serious Oscar contender. In Focus Features’ hands, it’s not as prominent a contender. That the festival buzz has been muted outside of Eddie Redmayne’s and Alicia Vikander’s performances, so it could merit inclusion in Best Actor and Best Actress, its best chances are in the creative categories, like Best Production Design and Best Costume Design.

I Saw the Light (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A biography of Hank Williams.”
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Music biopics aren’t catnip for audiences and although Hank Williams is well renowned, a film based on his life doesn’t seem as solid a performer as one might have expected back in the 1980’s.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. Apart from the limited attention Tom Hiddleston has gotten for a potential Best Actor bid, the film hasn’t been on anyone’s tongues, so it probably doesn’t have much hope unless it ends up being a critical smash. Since the post-Toronto response wasn’t great, don’t count on it.