May 1-3, 2015

Avengers: Age of Ultron

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. Like the original film, the sequel is likely going to earn a Best Visual Effects nomination. It could earn nominations in Sound Mixing and Sound Editing as well, but I’m dubious at its chances there.”
Oscar Results: I find it strange that when I wrote this back in April, I assumed the same patterns for recognition would emerge, but as more and more effects-laden films show up in the marketplace with better reviews, I begin to suspect that the film will have an uphill battle to an Oscar nomination. I believe it could still get nominated, but it’s no longer a sure thing.
Box Office Prediction: $500 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. Can the film surpass the surprise hit that was The Avengers? I seriously doubt it. $623 million just seems like the kind of tally that greets a first outing and then the subsequent sequels just can’t get close to. Think Spider-Man. Of course, it could be like Iron Man, which saw its third outing become the tops in its series or the second Pirates of the Caribbean outpacing the original. It’s going to be tough, though, as only two films have ever made more money at the box office than The Avengers (at least in terms of release-year dollars). Even adjusting for inflation, there are only 26 films above it. That’s a tough obstacle to beat and I seriously doubt it’s going to be able to do it.”
Box Office Results: $458.9 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Minor Success] It may have fallen short of my initial expectations, but this tally is no laughing matter. However, it’s clear the franchise has lost some support and the second Avengers film wasn’t nearly as engaging as the first.

She’s Funny That Way

Box Office Prediction: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. No one equates Peter Bogdanovich with box office hits, yet this film is currently listed as being a wide release. It’s going to try to hit a humorous niche that’s been underserved, but ultimately the film’s just not going to perform to the expectations anyone has. I doubt it even releases wide.”
Box Office Results: $111.9 K (RELEASED IN AUGUST, BUT APPEARS TO HAVE ALREADY CLOSED)
Thoughts: [Major Flop] It’s never a good sign to have your film pushed to a later release window. It’s a worse deal yet to be buried in August and then come out with such an awful total that you still manage to close before my recap article.

Far from the Madding Crowd (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Solid. It fits the profile of Production Design and Costume Design double nominees, but probably won’t win either.”
Oscar Results: Another Carey Mulligan film is like to emerge as the costume drama with the most nominations. That doesn’t mean this film can’t still eke out nominations, but I suspect its chances are significantly diminished at this juncture.
Box Office Prediction: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. Costume dramas just don’t have the cachet to be big box office hits. The only thing that helped Great Gatsby become such a huge hit was its sheer spectacle. Far from the Madding Crowd doesn’t seem to have that, so it will require strong word of mouth business to become much of a success, but it will only be such at the specialty box office.”
Box Office Results: $12.2 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Period dramas don’t engage audiences anymore, not even on the specialty circuit. This is a fine total, but not one that would give one hope for a resurgence.

May 8-10, 2015

Before I Wake

Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. A Summer of horror disappointments may be in the offing. Releasing shortly before Poltergeist, this film hasn’t gotten a lot of strong advertising and doesn’t seem to fit the big hit narrative a lot of supernatural horror films have in recent years.”
Box Office Results: $TBD M (PULLED FROM RELEASE CALENDAR)
Thoughts: [Flop] Instead of getting flogged by critics and audiences in May, the film was pulled from the schedule and has yet to be released. That’s not a good sign.

Hot Pursuit

Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. While the somewhat similar The Heat was a big hit two years ago in nearly the same release window, Sandra Bullock and Melissa McCarthy were big box office draws at the time and Sofia Vergara and Reese Witherspoon are not. With all the competition in the marketplace, I suspect the film won’t do even half as well and could do even worse.”
Box Office Results: $34.6 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Familiarity breeds contempt, at least when it comes to broad female-centric comedies. Witherspoon and Vergara have nothing on Bullock and McCarthy.

May 15-17, 2015

Mad Max: Fury Road

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The original films weren’t Oscar capable, but this one might have enough effects and settings to enter into races like Production Design, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects.”
Oscar Results: The big question mark of the year. Can the critically acclaimed box office success really compete at the Oscars. Signs are pointing to the film playing well with techs, but not showing up beyond that.
Box Office Prediction: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. There’s plenty of recent precedent to suggest that post-apocalyptic films can still do boffo box office biz. Mix in the cult popularity of this franchise that hasn’t seen a new entry in thirty years and you have the makings of a big hit.”
Box Office Results: $153.6 M
Thoughts: [Success] While it can’t hold a candle to The Avengers, strong critics’ notices and hefty word of mouth helped the film do incredibly well at the box office.

Pitch Perfect 2

Box Office Prediction: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The original film scored an impressive $65 million tally based almost entirely on word of mouth. The concept of a sequel seems strong and the producers are doing a fairly solid job selling the film, so an unqualified hit is quite possible.”
Box Office Results: $183.8 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] From %65 million to $183 million. The goldmine has been activated and endless sequels will undoubtedly abound.

May 22-24, 2015

Poltergeist

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. The original film carried on a tradition of horror films scoring Oscar nominations in a time when such things didn’t seem unfathomable. The iconic score was nominated for Original Score and its effects generated nominations in Sound Effects and Visual Effects. That possibility is incredibly remote.”
Oscar Results: Nowadays, horror doesn’t do well with the Academy, even critically acclaimed horror. With the box office and critical flop of this film, we won’t see any change.
Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. It’s been over a decade since a remake of a classic ’70s/’80s horror film was met with universal success. The first trailer suggests this will fall into modern storytelling styles rather than harkening back to a halcyon time when classic horror films were crafted with great regularity.”
Box Office Results: $47.4 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] As the remake of Carrie proved, taking the bastions of 1970s and 1980s horror and remaking them is a recipe for disaster.

Tomorrowland

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Solid. The film is sure to appear on shortlists for Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects and could even make appearances in Original Score, Production Design and Costume Design.”
Oscar Results: The film was modestly received and its box office wasn’t spectacular. The film’s chances hinged entirely on positive word of mouth carrying it from May to December. That doesn’t seem possible now.
Box Office Prediction: $300 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Strong. This is the kind of movie Disney excels at marketing. Big, Summer event pictures. Its smaller, family-oriented dramas don’t tend to do well, but this film will fit nicely into their blockbuster niche.”
Box Office Results: $93.4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Disney can’t seem to catch a break. Outside of their Marvel films and animated features, they can’t make a hit to save their lives.

May 29-31, 2015

Aloha

Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Cameron Crowe either has hits or misses and there’s little in between. I suggest this will likely be a miss, though my prediction is still a bit high. Against everything else this Summer, I doubt it’s much of a hit.”
Box Office Results: $21.1 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Cameron Crowe no longer holds box office sway and Bradley Cooper is proven fallible.

Hillsong: Let Hope Rise

Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. While the Christian genre has been creating a few hits recently, their box office tallies haven’t been great and since this is a documentary and not a fiction film, it’s going to have a tougher time succeeding.”
Box Office Results: $TBD M (PULLED FROM RELEASE CALENDAR)
Thoughts: [Flop] Never trust a film, even a Christian-themed one, that is pulled from the schedule.

San Andreas

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. There’s little likelihood the film overcomes the certain tepid reviews it will receive to beat out many more respected and popular films competing in the Best Visual Effects category. It could show up in either of the sound categories, but again competition’s probably going to rule that out.”
Oscar Results: The year-end slate is stuffed to the gills with contenders. While the film was successful, I doubt it was popular enough to trump other more visible competitors.
Box Office Prediction: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. If you were to adjust for inflation, The Towering Inferno would be the third most successful film in the disaster genre in history behind only Titanic and Independence Day (though, it’s debatable whether ID4 is actually a disaster film). The fourth grossing would be Poseidon Adventure followed by Twister, Armageddon and finally Earthquake. The genre has been hugely popular. The reason Towering Inferno, Poseidon Adventure and Earthquake were so huge was that they had all-star casts. San Andreas does not. As such, I’m going to predict a much more modest tally.”
Box Office Results: $155.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] While the disaster film hasn’t been tremendously successful, this isn’t a bad result. It’s just not a spectacular one.