April 3, 2015

Furious 7

Box Office Prediction: $200 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. The franchise has always been a big hit (except for Tokyo Drift), but the sixth film did quite a bit more business than any of its predecessors. While I’m not sure the same feat can be arranged with this outing, the last film in a franchise tends to bring out fans far and wide.”
Box Office Results: $351.0 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] April was, for me, a month of either over-predicting or under-predicting. Few of my predictions came even close and most of them were too high. This is an example where I was too low. Perhaps I should have given more credence to the love for the late Paul Walker and this being a love letter to him. Or even looked at the performance of its predecessor and come to the realization that this was a franchise that wasn’t going to fade any further. Either way, it so far exceeded expectations that I’m wondering when they’ll figure out how to go on without Walker.

April 10, 2015

The Longest Ride

Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. While the romantic drama genre has generated a number of hits, most of them fall into a narrow range of box office numbers around $50-$60 million. I’m going to place this at the low end because of its lack of major stars or ease of plot discussion.”
Box Office Results: $37.4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] It used to be a given that a Nicholas Sparks film did excellent box office. However, that no longer seems to be the case as the last two outings have significantly underperformed. While not as bad a performance as The Best of Me, this is the second worst performance of a Sparks film, suggesting that without a major star in the seat, no one will care.

Clouds of Sils Maria (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. Although Kristen Stewart became the first American actress to win a César award, I doubt that translates to the Oscars where her past body of work will likely weigh her chances down.”
Oscar Results: The length of time between initial buzz and the Oscar ceremony slowly decreases the chances a film will hold on. Everything is pointing towards this being that kind of film.
Box Office Prediction: $900 K
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Maybe Kristen Stewart’s César win will propel this into higher numbers at the specialty box office. However, I highly doubt it will be much of a success based on the subject matter alone.”
Box Office Results: $1.8 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] While it certainly beat my expectations, there’s nothing particularly exciting about these numbers for a non-foreign language narrative feature.

Ex Machina (Limited)

Box Office Prediction: $2 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. There aren’t a lot of examples of this type of film out there and that could be a boon, but will most likely be a curse as other sci-fi films with bigger ad budgets are likely to become more prominent this year leaving the specialty products to fend for a small share of the market.”
Box Office Results: $25.4 M
Thoughts: [Success] At the time I wrote this article, Ex Machina seemed like it would be one of those critics’ darlings that faded into obscurity. However, the zeitgeist picked up the film and carried it towards a huge box office tally, far exceeding expectations.

April 17, 2015

Child 44

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. An April release isn’t a good sign, though Tom Hardy could still be in the competition if he can get enough support from critics, especially as the year wanes.”
Oscar Results: Tom Hardy now has Legend to vault him into Oscar contention, so this film will fade quietly into the background.
Box Office Prediction: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. I’m surprised this is currently being scheduled for a wide release. Most likely it will be a narrow wide release or a much smaller platform release. Either way, the premise doesn’t sound like something that would draw many people to the box office and it will need support from critics to get to that point.”
Box Office Results: $1.2 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Another poor performance from an indie feature starring a recognizable actor with a burgeoning career.

Monkey Kingdom

Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. One of DisneyNature’s strongest performers was Chimpanzee, which corrected a downward trend from the brand in prior years. That momentum didn’t stay for the following release about bears, but not we’re back in the primate camp, which may draw a large body of viewers to the theaters like the chimps did.”
Box Office Results: $16.4 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] If a documentary about monkeys can’t even become a hit for DisneyNature, what hope do future films have?

Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2

Box Office Prediction: $95 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Recent examples suggest that waiting too long for a sequel can kill enthusiasm for a film. It’s been six years since Kevin James’ original stormed to $146 million at the box office. I suspect the interest isn’t nearly as high as producers think it is and the film will finish under the $100 million mark.”
Box Office Results: $71.0 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] The sequel to the popular Kevin James comedy proved a tough sell to audiences who weren’t particularly enthused with a spy-type comedy in lieu of a bumbling security mall cop comedy. There isn’t likely much difference, but Vegas isn’t always the best locale for a second outing.

Unfriended

Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Supernatural horror films have a solid history at the box office, though teen-targeted ones don’t. However, the blend of concepts may help boost the film to a decent, if not superb total.”
Box Office Results: $32.5 M
Thoughts: [Flop] For a horror film, these numbers aren’t bad, but for one that targeted the rich tween-demographic, they aren’t great. Of course, targeting young adults is difficult since many who would be attracted to this narrative aren’t of age to see it in the first place. That may have impacted its bottom line.

April 24, 2015

The Age of Adaline

Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Outside of the Twilight franchise, the romantic fantasy genre doesn’t have a lot of strong business to tout. This concept seems to fit well into the genre and I would expect an above average tally wouldn’t be unexpected, especially if the film is advertised effectively.”
Box Office Results: $42.6 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] This is a better performance than the month’s other major romantic drama, but the tally is still woefully anemic, especially for a film that got surprisingly decent reviews.

Little Boy

Box Office Prediction: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. Currently schedule to open wide, there’s nothing about the film’s premise that suggests it will do a lot of business and with no big names attached, I’d be shocked if it didn’t open outside of the top ten. Of course, good advertising could help.”
Box Office Results: $6.5 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Every calculation that suggested this would be a good family-friendly outing missed its mark. The film didn’t seem to connect with audiences on any demonstrable level.

The Water Diviner

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. It may have stormed the Australian Academy Awards with eight nominations and three wins, including Best Picture, but the competition is much lighter down under wear annual film prediction is muted compared to that in the U.S. Against much more entrenched competition and with reviews that aren’t sounding very ecstatic, I suspect the film will be easily forgotten by the end of the year.”
Oscar Results: April isn’t the best place to release Oscar contenders, especially ones with acclaim in their country of origin. However, American critics weren’t particularly enamored with the film and it quickly disappeared from contention, likely before it was ever considered.
Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Russell Crowe’s directorial debut is in a genre that hasn’t done well at the box office in quite some time. That suggests the film may not have a lot of legs. However, if the ads can tout its haul at the Australian Academy Awards and not seem pretentious, it could do much better than currently expected.”
Box Office Results: $4.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Russell Crowe may have been a big name at the box office once upon a time, but a period, post-war drama just doesn’t have a lot of demographic appeal in the United States even if they star a recognizable name and face.