The end of the year brings the most combative environment for films trying to become Oscar winners. The next four months will be an interesting proving round.

October 2, 2015

The Martian

Premise: From IMDb: “During a manned mission to Mars, Astronaut Mark Watney is presumed dead after a fierce storm and left behind by his crew. But Watney has survived and finds himself stranded and alone on the hostile planet. With only meager supplies, he must draw upon his ingenuity, wit and spirit to subsist and find a way to signal to Earth that he is alive.”
Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Expectations: Good. My original thought was to rank this as a sub-$100 million finisher. However, considering the buzz, I think it will do better than that. How much better I’m not sure, but I think my current prediction might be a bit of a low-ball estimate.
Oscar Prospects: Solid. Ridley Scott returns to the sci-fi genre with a film that has been piquing curiosity since it started previews. Early word is that it could be quite good and that’s good news for Scott who hasn’t had a viable Oscar contender in some time. With the Academy’s new attention to the genre perhaps he’ll have another Best Picture nominee on his hands.

Freeheld (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “New Jersey police lieutenant, Laurel Hester, and her registered domestic partner, Stacie Andree, both battle to secure Hester’s pension benefits when she is diagnosed with terminal cancer.”
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: Poor. The film would have to be a critical success and an Oscar juggernaut to make more than a passable total at the box office. I suspect it won’t do terribly well.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. Reviews out of Toronto were disastrous. Before then, the film was considered a major player at the Oscars. Still, in spite of its poor performance at TIFF, it’s possible that both Julianne Moore and Ellen Page could still enter the Oscar conversation with Moore the more likely to be nominated.

He Named Me Malala (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A look at the events leading up to the Talibans’ attack on the young Pakistani school girl, Malala Yousafzai, for speaking out on girls’ education and the aftermath, including her speech to the United Nations.”
Box Office Prospects: $2 M
Expectations: Weak. For a documentary, it will likely do well. For a motion picture, I wouldn’t rank its chances very high of becoming the next Fahrenheit 9/11.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. Malala has captured the hearts and minds of millions for her defiance of Taliban rules in her home nation. That powerful story might be the perfect subject matter for Academy voters. The problem is the film has to actually be good before they’ll give it much consideration. We’ll have to see when the critics start rolling out their reviews.

The Walk (Limited+Expanding 10/9/15)

Premise: From IMDb: “The story of French high-wire artist Philippe Petit’s attempt to cross the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center in 1974.”
Box Office Prospects: $110 M
Expectations: Good. Zemeckis may not be an Oscar darling, but he still has some clout with audiences and this film has been pushing itself hard to impress those afraid of heights and anyone looking for a thrill. Since it’s certain to deliver at least that much, I think it should do well, though too high a tally doesn’t seem likely so far.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. Robert Zemeckis has an uneven history with the Oscars, going from huge recognition to none. His prowess in the technical categories is a little more solid, but still not a slam dunk. I suspect this film will be a strong contender for Best Visual Effects and possibly Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing; however, unless reviews are through the roof, I don’t expect it to show up anywhere else.

October 9, 2015

My All American

Premise: From IMDb: “Freddie Steinmark, an underdog on the gridiron, faces the toughest challenge of his life after leading his team to a championship season.”
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Weak. Sports films aren’t big sellers, especially when they’re without a strong lead actor at the fore that everyone recognizes. This one only has Aaron Eckhart and he has no mobile fan base to deliver receipts.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Pan

Premise: From IMDb: “The story of an orphan who is spirited away to the magical Neverland. There, he finds both fun and dangers, and ultimately discovers his destiny — to become the hero who will be forever known as Peter Pan.”
Box Office Prospects: $120 M
Expectations: Decent. This looks like quite an adventure, which could give it legs at the box office. Hook, which at least had Spielberg at the helm, pulled in about this much in its box office run back in 1991. Inflation would put it much higher, but I don’t think this film will stand a chance of reaching Hook‘s heights.
Oscar Prospects: Decent. The film has a chance at several below-the-line nominations, but that’s as far as the film will go.

Steve Jobs

Premise: From IMDb: “The true story of the life of visionary Apple CEO Steve Jobs.”
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: Uncertain. As beloved a figure as Steve Jobs is, a box office draw he’s not. A solid push for Oscar consideration might net the film a much higher box office tally, but right now, I’m gauging this as a modest potential performer.
Oscar Prospects: Good. Word out of Toronto is that this film is not only good, but has a strong chance at earning Michael Fassbender an Oscar nomination and possibly even an award. With Oscar winner Danny Boyle in the director’s chair and with Oscar and Emmy winner Aaron Sorking behind the screenplay, you have a film with strong changes at multiple nominations, even possibly pulling other cast members along.

October 16, 2015

Bridge of Spies

Premise: From IMDb: “An American lawyer is recruited by the CIA during the Cold War to help rescue a pilot detained in the Soviet Union.”
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Expectations: Good. While his less recognizable films of the last two decades have failed to breakout at the box office, Spielberg has consistently drawn big numbers. This movie looks like it could be another strong performer for Spielberg, hot on the heels of his surprisingly huge tally for historical drama Lincoln three years ago.
Oscar Prospects: Good. Steven Spielberg is like Oscar catnip. His films have been routinely nominated even when they haven’t been that great. However, this film looks like Spielberg doing what he does best, which could be just enough to propel it into serious consideration for several Oscar nominations.

Crimson Peak

Premise: From IMDb: “In the aftermath of a family tragedy, an aspiring author is torn between love for her childhood friend and the temptation of a mysterious outsider. Trying to escape the ghosts of her past, she is swept away to a house that breathes, bleeds…and remembers.”
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: Decent. The closest comparison to a film of this type by a major director is Bram Stoker’s Dracula more than two decades ago. The similarities are strong and that film made over $80 million on a $30 million opening. Double those figures and you have approximately what the film would have done today. I could see Crimson Peak doing similar business, but I could also imagine it struggling to find a foothold.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. Guillermo del Toro isn’t a box office draw, nor is he an Oscar favorite. His genre history has shown no tendency towards Oscar attention and this film doesn’t seem to have a much better shot. However, early word is that it’s quite good, which might be just enough to get it into some lower categories like Bram Stoker’s Dracula did back in 1992.

Goosebumps

Premise: From IMDb: “A young kid teams up with the niece of young adult horror author R.L. Stine after the writer’s imaginary demons are set free on the town of Greendale, Maryland.”
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Jack Black is no Robin Williams and even he couldn’t manage more than a soft $11 million opening back in 1995 for Jumanji, a film with distinct similarities to this one. Still, that movie topped $100 million (barely), so it’s safe to assume that the combination of teen danger and comedy could give the film a healthy boost at the box office.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Truth (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A behind-the-scenes newsroom drama detailing the 2004 CBS 60 Minutes report investigating then-President George W. Bush’s military service in the Texas Air National Guard.”
Box Office Prospects: $1 M
Expectations: Weak. It’s not the 1970s or 1980s anymore and films like All the President’s Men and Broadcast News aren’t very popular these days. Released outside the November/December prestige window may harm its chances.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. Another film dealing with a journalism story this year may steal all the thunder while this film takes a few small opportunities at a handful of nominations, but I doubt there will be many.

October 23, 2015

Burnt

Premise: From IMDb: “Adam Jones is a Chef who destroyed his career with drugs and diva behavior. He cleans up and returns to London, determined to redeem himself by spearheading a top restaurant that can gain three Michelin stars.”
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Uncertain. On name recognition alone, this should be a hit. Bradley Cooper is one of the most consistent names working today. However, the film has struggled with name changes and being dumped on a heavy release weekend. Critics haven’t weighed in, but I suspect they won’t be impressed, which will ultimately depress the film’s potential.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Jem and the Holograms

Premise: From IMDb: “As a small-town girl catapults from underground video sensation to global superstar, she and her three sisters begin a journey of discovering that some talents are too special to keep hidden.”
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Weak. While young women may flock to the film in droves, I suspect that’s the extent of its capabilities. Fans of the original 1980s cartoon have been disenchanted by the film’s complete departure from the original plot, so nostalgia won’t play a part in the film’s success, which will ultimately doom it.
Oscar Prospects: None.

The Last Witch Hunter

Premise: From IMDb: “The last witch hunter is all that stands between humanity and the combined forces of the most horrifying witches in history.”
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Vin Diesel is quite popular, but to draw audiences to a fantasy film like this will require more than his natural charisma and familiarity to audiences. It will still likely do well, but I doubt it will be a break-out hit.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Paranormal Activity: Ghost Dimension

Premise: From IMDb: “The plot is unknown at this time.”
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Dubious. The franchise is on fumes. Its last few entries have been disappointments and the fact that they have stopped numbering the films and been searching for gimmicks suggests it’s out of steam.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Rock the Kasbah

Premise: From IMDb: “A down-on-his-luck music manager discovers a teenage girl with an extraordinary voice while on a music tour in Afghanistan and takes her to Kabul to compete on the popular television show, Afghan Star.”
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: Weak. Bill Murray is popular, but not enough to drive box office revenue. The last film he headlined only made $44 million, which means his potential isn’t very high and with the film’s premise, I don’t think he can overcome audience reluctance.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Suffragette (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “The foot soldiers of the early feminist movement, women who were forced underground to pursue a dangerous game of cat and mouse with an increasingly brutal State.”
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Expectations: Uncertain. I want to predict bounteous amounts of box office bucks, but something about the period nature of the film leads me to believe that unless it’s a frontrunner for the Oscars, it probably won’t make much money.
Oscar Prospects: Strong. While the film hasn’t gotten rave reviews, they are respectable and all of them center on the powerhouse of Carey Mulligan. Being a period film about women’s rights, I suspect it will get a much bigger push than it might otherwise have gotten, which could put it into contention for even more categories.

October 30, 2015

Collide (formerly “Autobahn”)

Premise: From IMDb: “An American backpacker gets involved with a ring of drug smugglers as their driver, though he winds up on the run from his employers across Munich’s high-speed Autobahn”
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Expectations: Poor. A title change doesn’t help, nor does the fact that the film hasn’t seen much in the way of an advertising blitz. I’m probably over-selling its potential even with the pittance I’ve predicted.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Our Brand Is Crisis

Premise: From IMDb: “A feature film based on the documentary “Our Brand Is Crisis”, which focuses on the use of American political campaign strategies in South America.”
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Sandra Bullock is popular, but this genre of film hasn’t had a lot of success in recent years, especially for films that aren’t actual satires.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. While Sandra Bullock has entered the Oscar conversation for this film, I wonder just how strong her brand can carry her for a film that doesn’t seem to have a lot of other Oscar prospects.

Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse

Premise: From IMDb: “Three scouts, on the eve of their last camp-out, discover the true meaning of friendship when they attempt to save their town from a zombie outbreak.”
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Expectations: Weak. Themed horror comedies aren’t always popular with audiences, especially when the marketplace is overcrowded with regular horror films. Not much is out there about the film, which could also hamper its potential.
Oscar Prospects: None.