March 6, 2015

Chappie

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. His first film was a Best Picture nominee, but his subsequent film fell short with critics and the Oscars. All now depends on how good the film is. Releasing in March is probably not a good sign.”
Oscar Results: That release window was no accident, the studio knew it wouldn’t be a player for the box office or for the Oscars and planted it in No Man’s Land.
Box Office Prediction: $90 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. With two decent solid box office hits on his hand (Elysium was a disappointment, but still did well enough at the box office), Neill Blomkamp seems to know how to ply the sci-fi genre for what it’s worth. The film’s simple premise could be just enough to keep it in the ballpark of his prior films.”
Box Office Results: $31.6 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Blokamp’s star has faded. Much like the Wachowskis, his vanity has left him floundering.

Unfinished Business

Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. Without his This Is the End cohorts, it seems likely that James Franco will find yet another in a long string of duds on his hands. The film could surprise as such comedies often do, but I suspect the limited advertising the film has received will doom its chances of a meaningful debut.”
Box Office Results: $10.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Even the dimmest expectations couldn’t have forecast such a colossal flop for a comedy like this.

The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Limited)

Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The first film wasn’t exactly a box office bonanza, but I’m guessing the DVD crowd loved it because here we have a sequel. That being said, I suspect the box office numbers won’t even match its predecessor’s. Possibly not even closely.”
Box Office Results: $33.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Not only did it fail to live up to its predecessors expectations, it didn’t even live up to our own low expectations.

March 13, 2015

Cinderella

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. While Alice managed two Oscars out of three wins, Oz picked up nothing while Maleficent has a single nomination that it’s not likely to win. Cinderella seems like it will fall into the same realm of Oscar consideration as these films with possible Production Design, Costume Design and Visual Effects nominations, but the competition will be heavy and this film missing out on any or all of them is quite possible.”
Oscar Results: It was a hit, but it’s still going to be isolated to a handful of categories and will likely only find solace in a Best Costume Design nomination.
Box Office Prediction: $200 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. The revisionist and live-action fairy tales that have been all the rage in recent years have proven to be terrific performers at the box office. Hot on the heels of the success of Maleficent, Oz: The Great and Powerful and Alice in Wonderland, Disney hopes to strike gold a fourth time with a new version of their classic animated hit Cinderella. I see little reason to doubt that the film will be anything less than a success.”
Box Office Results: $200.9 M
Thoughts: [Success] The machine performed precisely as expected, yielding no more and no less.

Run All Night

Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. Liam Neeson, in full action mode, is typically a strong performer at the box office. Pitting hitmen against each other could be a solid recipe, especially with Neeson facing off against Ed Harris. That said, I don’t expect him to get close to his Taken numbers.”
Box Office Results: $26.5 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Neeson just doesn’t have the box office credentials we’ve always thought. Isolated to specific genres, especially ones where he’s acting alone, he does a little better, but even he can’t get audiences to visit this type of film.

March 20, 2015

The Divergent Series: Insurgent

Box Office Prediction: $175 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The first film took in a solid $150 million at the box office. Unlike others in its genre, I could see the sequel doing better at the box office than its predecessor since I doubt everyone who thought about seeing it at the theater actually did. I suspect many potential viewers were cautious because of all of the recent tween duds and decided to catch the first on video and, now that they found out it’s not nearly the misfire it could have been, I believe they’ll probably turn out at the box office.”
Box Office Results: $130.2 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] While the film did well enough at the box office, the diminished returns don’t give us confidence that the final two films are going to perform much better.

Do You Believe?

Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. Faith-based films have been doing fair business at the box office. They aren’t precisely blockbusters, but having large congregations take Sundays out at the movies, and the incredibly small budgets these films have, box office success can be small but still effective. I believe this will continue in that trend, though perhaps not score nearly as high as recent hits God’s Not Dead and Heaven Is for Real.”
Box Office Results: $12.9 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Even God can’t sell tickets to films about his existence.

The Gunman

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. Were the film releasing late in the year, I might take seriously the early buzz that Penn delivers an Oscar-caliber performance. While I never underestimate Penn, this film seems a bit too much like The American in terms of how it might play to Oscar voters.”
Oscar Results: With no box office support and critics mostly dismissive, the film’s Oscar candidacy ended as soon as it was released.
Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Sean Penn has never been a box office draw and his latest film seems targeted towards indie audiences more so than mass ones, suggesting that it will likely finish the weekend a distant third to the other wide releases.”
Box Office Results: $10.7 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Specialty audiences didn’t seem to care about the film, leaving it to underperform and fade from existence almost as soon as it arrived.

March 27, 2015

Get Hard

Box Office Prediction: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Kevin Hart is getting a lot of work these days as his box office profile has risen. Paired with Will Ferrell, he should do a lot better than his collaboration with the far less familiar Josh Gad.”
Box Office Results: $90.4 M
Thoughts: [Success] A slight depression in attendance hit this film particularly hard. It was successful, but not to the degree its producers had originally hoped.

Home

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. With no other entry in this year’s Best Animated Feature race, DreamWorks will put all of its efforts behind Home and will very likely secure a nomination for it. They are one of the four most consistent animation houses to get nominations (the others being Disney/Pixar, Laika and GKids).”
Oscar Results: The film didn’t enamor critics, so it may have to settle for obscurity. However, DreamWorks has no other horse, so it could still pull out a nomination, but it will be tough.
Box Office Prediction: $180 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. DreamWorks Animation may not have had a Shrek-sized hit in some time, but they have consistently $150 million-plus. While I could see this one fairing along the lines of Over the Hedge, which is on their lower end, I suspect the lack of available family films in the marketplace might give it a boost.”
Box Office Results: $176.6 M
Thoughts: [Success] Although critics didn’t praise it excessively, the film did significant business at the box office, far outshining everything else released in its vicinity.

Serena (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Non-Existent. You don’t shift out of the prime Oscar season if you are an actual competitor. You don’t then move into March and expect to be remembered.”
Oscar Results: Forgotten as soon as it released. Its stars currently have a more important and more likely vehicle coming out at the end of the year.
Box Office Prediction: $1 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. The film was pushed back into 2014 from its swanky berth in Oscar season, which suggests it’s not very good. With a limited release to see if it will fly in expansion, I suspect it will be a huge dud and never make it out of the specialty houses.”
Box Office Results: $176.4 K
Thoughts: [Major Flop] It couldn’t even draw curiosity seekers to the box office, making the film seem like it was unceremoniously dumped and not strategically released to be forgotten.