The end of the year brings the most combative environment for films trying to become Oscar winners. The next four months will be an interesting proving round.

August 7, 2015

Fantastic Four

Premise: From IMDb: “Four young outsiders teleport to an alternate and dangerous universe which alters their physical form in shocking ways. The four must learn to harness their new abilities and work together to save Earth from a former friend turned enemy.”
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Expectations: Satisfactory. The prior two films in this franchise made around $130-$155 million at the box office, not a bad take, but rather unexceptional compared to everything else Disney/Marvel has put out. I expect this reboot to fit right in that range since this team of superheroes isn’t exactly the most popular.
Oscar Prospects: None.

The Gift

Premise: From IMDb: “A young married couple’s lives are thrown into a harrowing tailspin when an acquaintance from the husband’s past brings mysterious gifts and a horrifying secret to light after more than 20 years.”
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Expectations: Uncertain. An unusual take on the horror/thriller genre, it could perform quite well with audiences not getting much of that kind of picture recently, but it could also be completely ignored for not being enough like Paranormal Activity or any other supernatural horror film of late.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Ricki and the Flash

Premise: From IMDb: “A musician who gave up everything for her dream of rock-and-roll stardom returns home, looking to make things right with her family.”
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Meryl Streep can make good bank, but this film just doesn’t seem like the kind of film to dig into her core audience. That said, the film could be buoyed by strong reviews to earn enough attention to get it seen, but I’m suspecting the August release is mainly because test audiences weren’t that enamored by it.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. As always, if Meryl Streep is involved, there will be Oscar talk. While many will point to Suffragette as her best opportunity, this family drama with Streep in the lead could prove attractive if audiences and critics both support the film.

Shaun the Sheep Movie

Premise: From IMDb: “When Shaun decides to take the day off and have some fun, he gets a little more action than he bargained for. A mix up with the Farmer, a caravan and a very steep hill lead them all to the Big City and it’s up to Shaun and the flock to return everyone safely to the green grass of home.”
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Expectations: Weak. Aardman animation, in spite of being one of the best animation studios out there, just cannot ignite the box office. It’s been 9 years since they last topped $50 million (even though they’ve only had two releases since then) and without the well known Wallace and Gromit at the helm, I’m not sure this film can catch on. However, their top box office champ is Chicken Run, which covered a similar anthropomorphized animal concept like this one does.
Oscar Prospects: Decent. There are essentially five production/distribution houses for animation that you can consistently predict for Oscar consideration. DreamWorks and Disney/Pixar are the two big ones. GKids and Focus/Laika are the two small players. Aardman animation is the fifth. The studio has been fairly consistent, which gives this one a leg-up in a weak race.

Kahlil Gibran’s The Prophet (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “Inspired by the classic book by Kahlil Gibran, The Prophet is an animated feature film, with “chapters” from animation directors from around the world.”
Box Office Prospects: $1.5 M
Expectations: Weak. Animated films that aren’t produced by the major studios, or even smaller studios, do very poorly with audiences. If legendary animator Hayao Miyazaki can’t regularly command hefty box office numbers, a film like this will struggle a great deal to do so.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. Always beware of GKids. The small animation distributor has been behind some of the biggest surprise Oscar nominees of the last decade. They’ve picked up at least two films so far this year. This will be the one least likely to figure into the Oscar race, but with a weaker-than-normal year for animated features, they could easily score two slots.

August 14, 2015

The Man from U.N.C.L.E.

Premise: From IMDb: “In the early 1960s, CIA agent Napoleon Solo and KGB operative Illya Kuryakin participate in a joint mission against a mysterious criminal organization, which is working to proliferate nuclear weapons.”
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Apart from the Robert Downey Jr. Sherlock Holmes films, Guy Ritchie hasn’t exactly been a box office draw. However, with those two being his most recent films, it’s possible he’s finally picked up on a style that demands audiences pay attention. Spy thrillers seem to be doing well lately, but can a period drama explode the box office? Since Ritchie did it with Sherlock Holmes, there’s no reason to suspect that he can’t do it again. Unfortunately for him, this is not a property many people have heard of and it doesn’t feature any major bankable stars.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. Guy Ritchie’s period film Sherlock Holmes surprised with Oscar nominations for Best Original Score and Best Art Direction. The sequel didn’t get anything. The designs of this film could surprise with nominations, but I suspect that critics will give it such a drubbing that the Academy won’t end up anywhere near it.

Straight Outta Compton

Premise: From IMDb: “The group NWA emerges from the streets of Compton, California in the mid-1980s and revolutionizes pop culture with their music and tales about life in the hood.”
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Weak. I don’t see this being an audience-friendly picture, certainly not one that will be going gangbusters at the box office.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Underdogs

Premise: From IMDb: “A young man named Amadeo sets off on an unexpected adventure with the players of his beloved Foosball game.”
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: Weak. Another example of an off-studio animated feature trying to earn respect in August. Unlike Aardman, the foreign origin of this film and its off-sync English dubbing is not likely to appease many parents accustomed to much better efforts from the majors.
Oscar Prospects: Poor. This foreign import will be one of a handful of films competing for a Best Animated Feature nomination. No matter how popular the film is, I wouldn’t count on Oscar voters giving it a goal.

August 21, 2015

American Ultra

Premise: From IMDb: “A stoner – who is in fact a government agent – is marked as a liability and targeted for extermination. But he’s too well-trained and too high for them to handle.”
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Expectations: Decent. There’s recent history to show that stoner movies can resonate with audiences. Ted, This is the End and Pineapple Express all did fairly well with audiences. While I don’t know if this one can quite reach Ted levels, I suspect it will outdo at least Pineapple Express and come closer to This Is the End in the end.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Hitman: Agent 47

Premise: From IMDb: “An assassin teams up with a woman to help her find her father and uncover the mysteries of her ancestry.”
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Expectations: Poor. Was anyone really clamoring for another Hitman movie? Considering the first film was released eight years ago and only made $39 million at the box office, demand isn’t high and nothing seems to indicate this one will be that popular.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Masterminds

Premise: From IMDb: “A night guard at an armored car company in the Southern U.S. organizes one of the biggest bank heists in American history.”
Box Office Prospects: $105 M
Expectations: Decent. August needs at least one sleeper hit, especially an R-Rated comedy. I think this will fit that bill nicely with a popular genre (bank heists) mixed with relatively familiar comic names (Zach Galifiankis, Kristen Wiig and Owen Wilson).
Oscar Prospects: None.

Sinister 2

Premise: From IMDb: “A young mother and her twin sons move into a rural house that’s marked for death.”
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Weak. Is a $48 million box office tally for a horror film sufficient reason enough to give it a sequel? Apparently Focus thinks so. They didn’t produce the original (Lionsgate/Summit did), so there’s no telling if they’ll be able to effectively market the film or if anyone will actually want to see it regardless of studio.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Grandma (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “Self-described misanthrope Elle Reid has her protective bubble burst when her 18-year-old granddaughter, Sage, shows up needing help. The two of them go on a day-long journey that causes Elle to come to terms with her past and Sage to confront her future.”
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Apart from a resurgent Lily Tomlin, I don’t think there’s much reason to suspect this film will become much of a hit, though on the specialty circuit, it should do decently well.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. There’s some talk that Lily Tomlin could make a play for an Oscar nomination with this film. I suspect, however, that she’ll not even come close or someone will stupidly push her for a Best Supporting Actress nomination.

August 28, 2015

Regression

Premise: From IMDb: “A father is accused of a crime he has no memory of committing.”
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Expectations: Weak. This is the weekend you release films you have zero faith in. The last weekend of August is typically a dumping ground (as is Labor Day weekend, which is the first of September). Amenabar’s films have been good, so it’s possible this one exceeds expectations, but no one will find out until they watch it on DVD.
Oscar Prospects: Doubtful. Alejandro Amenabar is a well known name in certain circles, but only one of his four features since his first in 1999 has earned Oscar attention. I don’t really think he’s going to have any luck here.

We Are Your Friends

Premise: From IMDb: “An aspiring DJ looks to make it in the electronic music scene.”
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: Weak. Advertising for this film has been virtually non-existent and kids will be back in school by this time (at least many districts will be), so I doubt Zac Efron fans (if there really are any) will make it to the theater)
Oscar Prospects: None.

War Room (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “Filled with heart, humor, and wit, WAR ROOM follows Tony and Elizabeth Jordan, a couple who seemingly have it all-great jobs, a beautiful daughter, their dream home. But appearances can be deceiving. In reality, their marriage has become a war zone and their daughter is collateral damage. With guidance from Miss Clara, an older, wiser woman, Elizabeth discovers she can start fighting for her family instead of against them. As the power of prayer and Elizabeth’s newly energized faith transform her life, will Tony join the fight and become the man he knows he needs to be? Together, their real enemy doesn’t have a prayer.”
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Expectations: Weak. A Christian-themed film releasing with little fanfare? I’m surprised. It will be heavily marketed to the target demographic, but the genre has struggled in the last year to mount anything in the way of surprise hits, so I don’t know if this one will do very well, especially without more heavy flogging by its producers.
Oscar Prospects: None.