The end of the year brings the most combative environment for films trying to become Oscar winners. The next four months will be an interesting proving round.

July 1, 2015

Magic Mike XXL

Premise: From IMDb: “Three years after Mike bowed out of the stripper life at the top of his game, he and the remaining Kings of Tampa hit the road to Myrtle Beach to put on one last blow-out performance.”
Box Office Prospects: $120 M
Expectations: Good. Women aren’t given nearly enough credit for their ability to bring massive cash to the box office. Magic Mike showed this to be a bad way of thinking. The sequel is certain to do some strong business, but will Matthew McConaughey’s absence hinder the film?
Oscar Prospects: None.

Terminator: Genisys

Premise: From IMDb: “After finding himself in a new time-line, Kyle Reese teams up with John Connor’s mother Sarah and an aging terminator to try and stop the one thing that the future fears, “Judgement Day”.”
Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Expectations: Good. This franchise has been quite profitable and although it’s been awhile since it was last seen in the theater, nostalgia should be high enough to bring boatloads to the theater.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. Terminator 2 was a watershed film in terms of visual effects. However, the rest of the franchise has been hard-pressed to find Oscar consideration. While this film looks more in T2‘s vein, I doubt that it will succeed at the Oscars.

July 10, 2015

The Gallows

Premise: From IMDb: “20 years after a horrific accident during a small town school play, students at the school resurrect the failed show in a misguided attempt to honor the anniversary of the tragedy – but soon discover that some things are better left alone.”
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: Poor. A horror film with minimal press isn’t likely to sell a lot of tickets. So far there hasn’t been much in the press about it, not even a trailer.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Minions

Premise: From IMDb: “Minions Stuart, Kevin and Bob are recruited by Scarlet Overkill, a super-villain who, alongside her inventor husband Herb, hatches a plot to take over the world.”
Box Office Prospects: $300 M
Expectations: Excellent. The two Despicable Me films did superb box office. While this doesn’t include Gru, it does include the very lovable and very popular Minions. Add in the voice of Sandra Bullock and it should have little trouble turning a tidy profit.
Oscar Prospects: Solid Chalk this one up as an early contender for a Best Animated Feature nomination. However, I wouldn’t expect it to win and bad reviews could keep it out of the competition altogether.

Self/Less

Premise: From IMDb: “An extremely wealthy man, dying from cancer, undergoes a radical medical procedure that transfers his consciousness into the body of a healthy young man. But all is not as it seems when he starts to uncover the mystery of the body’s origin and the organization that will kill to protect its cause.”
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Weak. Ryan Reynolds isn’t a box office draw and the film doesn’t have the cachet to be a box office over-performer, so I don’t expect much.
Oscar Prospects: None.

July 17, 2015

Ant-Man

Premise: From IMDb: “Armed with a super-suit with the astonishing ability to shrink in scale but increase in strength, con-man Scott Lang must embrace his inner hero and help his mentor, Dr. Hank Pym, plan and pull off a heist that will save the world.”
Box Office Prospects: $165 M
Expectations: Solid. It’s Marvel, so it’s definitely going to be a hit. The question is: “how big?” Unlike Guardians of the Galaxy, I don’t think this film will have the ability to dominate the box office.
Oscar Prospects: Decent. Another potential Oscar nominee based on past history, but Honey, I Shrunk the Kids and Innerspace were so long ago that I doubt the Academy is looking forward to recognizing another miniaturization film.

Trainwreck

Premise: From IMDb: “Having thought that monogamy was never possible, a commitment-phobic career woman may have to face her fears when she meets a good guy.”
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Poor. The headlines are going to write themselves for this film, which can’t help but be diminished alongside the weekend’s other wide release, but wasn’t likely to perform well even with a title and release date change.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Mr. Holmes (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “An aged, retired Sherlock Holmes looks back on his life, and grapples with an unsolved case involving a beautiful woman.”
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Expectations: Decent. It may take time to get going at the specialty box office, but I imagine the film will pique a lot of interests, though a major blockbuster it won’t be.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. In spite of the negative press the film has received for its potential use of copyrighted material, the film looks like a charming one. As such, it’s possible that it makes it to the end of the year with enough attention to become an Oscar contender at least for Ian McKellen’s performance as the film’s early release may be a hindrance.

July 24, 2015

Paper Towns

Premise: From IMDb: “A young man and his friends embark upon the road trip of their lives to find the missing girl next door.”
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Expectations: Uncertain. The novel on which the film is based is highly popular, which should allow it to do well with demos not interested in either Pixels or Southpaw.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Pixels

Premise: From IMDb: “When aliens misinterpret video feeds of classic arcade games as a declaration of war, they attack the Earth in the form of the video games.”
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Expectations: Decent. While it may be a case for Adam Sandler to finally win again at the box office, its returns are likely to be muted when compared to video game-themed films like Wreck-It Ralph do well, but not disproportionately well.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. Can video game movies win Oscars? When Adam Sandler’s involved, I doubt it, but Click got an Oscar nomination in Makeup, so anything is possible and a Best Visual Effects nomination is certainly doable all things considered.

Southpaw

Premise: From IMDb: “A boxer fights his way to the top, only to find his life falling apart around him.”
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Expectations: Decent. While Gyllenhaal had a modest hit with last year’s Nightcrawler, this film will be a tougher sell since it’s a boxing drama and those don’t frequently over-perform at the box office.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. Jake Gyllenhaal has been building buzz for his performance and after being neglected for Nightcrawler, it’s entirely possible that he gets a nomination for it, but releasing so early is dangerous and the film will need lots of strong reviews to make it much further than that.

July 31, 2015

The Gift

Premise: From IMDb: “A young married couple’s lives are thrown into a harrowing tailspin when an acquaintance from the husband’s past brings mysterious gifts and a horrifying secret to light after more than 20 years.”
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Poor. The concept isn’t new, but it isn’t as stale as the other horror films and thrillers in recent memory. Still, it’s going to have a lot to do to overcome the restrictions of this genre at the box office.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation

Premise: From IMDb: “Ethan and team take on their most impossible mission yet, eradicating the Syndicate – an International rogue organization as highly skilled as they are, committed to destroying the IMF.”
Box Office Prospects: $170 M
Expectations: Good. The Mission: Impossible films have always done solid business at the box office and now that Tom Cruise has found his footing as an actor again, this one should do fairly well.
Oscar Prospects: Poor. The franchise hasn’t done well with the Oscars, though if it’s as good as its predecessor, things could change. My doubts are high, however.

Vacation

Premise: From IMDb: “Rusty Griswold takes his own family on a road trip to “Walley World” in order to spice things up with his wife and reconnect with his sons.”
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Expectations: Good. I hope the film does well, but I suspect those who are fans of the original will turn their noses up at this one, which will force it to compete for audiences that don’t normally go to this type of film. However, I suspect it will do well enough, just not become the kind of blockbuster the studio might hope.
Oscar Prospects: None.