The end of the year brings the most combative environment for films trying to become Oscar winners. The next four months will be an interesting proving round.

May 1-3, 2015

Avengers: Age of Ultron

Premise: From IMDb: “When Tony Stark tries to jumpstart a dormant peacekeeping program, things go awry and it is up to the Avengers to stop the villainous Ultron from enacting his terrible plans.”
Box Office Prospects: $500 M
Expectations: Excellent. Can the film surpass the surprise hit that was The Avengers? I seriously doubt it. $623 million just seems like the kind of tally that greets a first outing and then the subsequent sequels just can’t get close to. Think Spider-Man. Of course, it could be like Iron Man, which saw its third outing become the tops in its series or the second Pirates of the Caribbean outpacing the original. It’s going to be tough, though, as only two films have ever made more money at the box office than The Avengers (at least in terms of release-year dollars). Even adjusting for inflation, there are only 26 films above it. That’s a tough obstacle to beat and I seriously doubt it’s going to be able to do it.
Oscar Prospects: Good. Like the original film, the sequel is likely going to earn a Best Visual Effects nomination. It could earn nominations in Sound Mixing and Sound Editing as well, but I’m dubious at its chances there.

She’s Funny That Way

Premise: From IMDb: “A married Broadway director falls for a prostitute-turned-actress and works to help her advance her career.”
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Expectations: Weak. No one equates Peter Bogdanovich with box office hits, yet this film is currently listed as being a wide release. It’s going to try to hit a humorous niche that’s been underserved, but ultimately the film’s just not going to perform to the expectations anyone has. I doubt it even releases wide.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Far from the Madding Crowd (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “In Victorian England, the independent and headstrong Bathsheba Everdene attracts three very different suitors: Gabriel Oak, a sheep farmer; Frank Troy, a reckless Sergeant; and William Boldwood, a prosperous and mature bachelor.”
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Expectations: Poor. Costume dramas just don’t have the cachet to be big box office hits. The only thing that helped Great Gatsby become such a huge hit was its sheer spectacle. Far from the Madding Crowd doesn’t seem to have that, so it will require strong word of mouth business to become much of a success, but it will only be such at the specialty box office.
Oscar Prospects: Solid. It fits the profile of Production Design and Costume Design double nominees, but probably won’t win either.

May 8-10, 2015

Before I Wake

Premise: From IMDb: “A young couple adopt an orphaned child whose dreams – and nightmares – manifest physically as he sleeps.”
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Uncertain. A Summer of horror disappointments may be in the offing. Releasing shortly before Poltergeist, this film hasn’t gotten a lot of strong advertising and doesn’t seem to fit the big hit narrative a lot of supernatural horror films have in recent years.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Hot Pursuit

Premise: From IMDb: “An inept police officer must protect the widow of a drug dealer from criminals and dirty policemen.”
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Expectations: Uncertain. While the somewhat similar The Heat was a big hit two years ago in nearly the same release window, Sandra Bullock and Melissa McCarthy were big box office draws at the time and Sofia Vergara and Reese Witherspoon are not. With all the competition in the marketplace, I suspect the film won’t do even half as well and could do even worse.
Oscar Prospects: None.

May 15-17, 2015

Mad Max: Fury Road

Premise: From IMDb: “In a post-apocalyptic world, in which people fight to the death, Max teams up with a mysterious woman, Furiousa, to try and survive.”
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Expectations: Good. There’s plenty of recent precedent to suggest that post-apocalyptic films can still do boffo box office biz. Mix in the cult popularity of this franchise that hasn’t seen a new entry in thirty years and you have the makings of a big hit.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. The original films weren’t Oscar capable, but this one might have enough effects and settings to enter into races like Production Design, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects.

Pitch Perfect 2

Premise: From IMDb: “Collegiate a cappella group the Barden Bellas enter into an international competition that no American team has ever won.”
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Expectations: Good. The original film scored an impressive $65 million tally based almost entirely on word of mouth. The concept of a sequel seems strong and the producers are doing a fairly solid job selling the film, so an unqualified hit is quite possible.
Oscar Prospects: None.

May 22-24, 2015

Poltergeist

Premise: From IMDb: “A family’s suburban home is invaded by evil forces.”
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Expectations: Uncertain. It’s been over a decade since a remake of a classic ’70s/’80s horror film was met with universal success. The first trailer suggests this will fall into modern storytelling styles rather than harkening back to a halcyon time when classic horror films were crafted with great regularity.
Oscar Prospects: Poor. The original film carried on a tradition of horror films scoring Oscar nominations in a time when such things didn’t seem unfathomable. The iconic score was nominated for Original Score and its effects generated nominations in Sound Effects and Visual Effects. That possibility is incredibly remote.

Tomorrowland

Premise: From IMDb: “Bound by a shared destiny, a teen bursting with scientific curiosity and a former boy-genius inventor embark on a mission to unearth the secrets of a place somewhere in time and space that exists in their collective memory.”
Box Office Prospects: $300 M
Expectations: Strong. This is the kind of movie Disney excels at marketing. Big, Summer event pictures. Its smaller, family-oriented dramas don’t tend to do well, but this film will fit nicely into their blockbuster niche.
Oscar Prospects: Solid. The film is sure to appear on shortlists for Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects and could even make appearances in Original Score, Production Design and Costume Design.

May 29-31, 2015

Aloha

Premise: From IMDb: “A celebrated military contractor returns to the site of his greatest career triumphs and re-connects with a long-ago love while unexpectedly falling for the hard-charging Air Force watchdog assigned to him.”
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Cameron Crowe either has hits or misses and there’s little in between. I suggest this will likely be a miss, though my prediction is still a bit high. Against everything else this Summer, I doubt it’s much of a hit.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Hillsong: Let Hope Rise

Premise: From IMDb: “Chronicles the unlikely rise to prominence of the Australia-based Christian band, Hillsong United. The music of Hillsong is so popular it is estimated that on any given Sunday, more than 50 million churchgoers around the world are singing their songs.”
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Uncertain. While the Christian genre has been creating a few hits recently, their box office tallies haven’t been great and since this is a documentary and not a fiction film, it’s going to have a tougher time succeeding.
Oscar Prospects: None.

San Andreas

Premise: From IMDb: “In the aftermath of a massive earthquake in California, a rescue-chopper pilot makes a dangerous journey across the state in order to rescue his estranged daughter.”
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Expectations: Uncertain. If you were to adjust for inflation, The Towering Inferno would be the third most successful film in the disaster genre in history behind only Titanic and Independence Day (though, it’s debatable whether ID4 is actually a disaster film). The fourth grossing would be Poseidon Adventure followed by Twister, Armageddon and finally Earthquake. The genre has been hugely popular. The reason Towering Inferno, Poseidon Adventure and Earthquake were so huge was that they had all-star casts. San Andreas does not. As such, I’m going to predict a much more modest tally.
Oscar Prospects: Poor. There’s little likelihood the film overcomes the certain tepid reviews it will receive to beat out many more respected and popular films competing in the Best Visual Effects category. It could show up in either of the sound categories, but again competition’s probably going to rule that out.