The end of the year brings the most combative environment for films trying to become Oscar winners. The next four months will be an interesting proving round.

April 3, 2015

Furious 7

Premise: From IMDb: “Deckard Shaw seeks revenge against Dominic Toretto and his family for the death of his brother.”
Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Expectations: Excellent. The franchise has always been a big hit (except for Tokyo Drift), but the sixth film did quite a bit more business than any of its predecessors. While I’m not sure the same feat can be arranged with this outing, the last film in a franchise tends to bring out fans far and wide.
Oscar Prospects: None.

April 10, 2015

The Longest Ride

Premise: From IMDb: “The lives of a young couple intertwine with a much older man as he reflects back on a lost love while he’s trapped in an automobile crash.”
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Expectations: Weak. While the romantic drama genre has generated a number of hits, most of them fall into a narrow range of box office numbers around $50-$60 million. I’m going to place this at the low end because of its lack of major stars or ease of plot discussion.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Clouds of Sils Maria (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A veteran actress comes face-to-face with an uncomfortable reflection of herself when she agrees to take part in a revival of the play that launched her career 20 years earlier.”
Box Office Prospects: $900 K
Expectations: Weak. Maybe Kristen Stewart’s César win will propel this into higher numbers at the specialty box office. However, I highly doubt it will be much of a success based on the subject matter alone.
Oscar Prospects: Poor. Although Kristen Stewart became the first American actress to win a César award, I doubt that translates to the Oscars where her past body of work will likely weigh her chances down.

Ex Machina (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A young programmer is selected to participate in a breakthrough experiment in artificial intelligence by evaluating the human qualities of a breathtaking female A.I.”
Box Office Prospects: $2 M
Expectations: Weak. There aren’t a lot of examples of this type of film out there and that could be a boon, but will most likely be a curse as other sci-fi films with bigger ad budgets are likely to become more prominent this year leaving the specialty products to fend for a small share of the market.
Oscar Prospects: None.

April 17, 2015

Child 44

Premise: From IMDb: “A disgraced member of the military police investigates a series of nasty child murders during the Stalin-era Soviet Union.”
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Expectations: Weak. I’m surprised this is currently being scheduled for a wide release. Most likely it will be a narrow wide release or a much smaller platform release. Either way, the premise doesn’t sound like something that would draw many people to the box office and it will need support from critics to get to that point.
Oscar Prospects: Poor. An April release isn’t a good sign, though Tom Hardy could still be in the competition if he can get enough support from critics, especially as the year wanes.

Monkey Kingdom

Premise: From IMDb: “A nature documentary that follows a newborn monkey and its mother as they struggle to survive within the competitive social hierarchy of the Temple Troop, a dynamic group of monkeys who live in ancient ruins found deep in the storied jungles of South Asia.”
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Expectations: Decent. One of DisneyNature’s strongest performers was Chimpanzee, which corrected a downward trend from the brand in prior years. That momentum didn’t stay for the following release about bears, but not we’re back in the primate camp, which may draw a large body of viewers to the theaters like the chimps did.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2

Premise: From IMDb: “After six years of keeping our malls safe, Paul Blart has earned a well-deserved vacation. He heads to Vegas with his teenage daughter before she heads off to college. But safety never takes a holiday and when duty calls, Blart answers.”
Box Office Prospects: $95 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Recent examples suggest that waiting too long for a sequel can kill enthusiasm for a film. It’s been six years since Kevin James’ original stormed to $146 million at the box office. I suspect the interest isn’t nearly as high as producers think it is and the film will finish under the $100 million mark.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Unfriended

Premise: From IMDb: “A group of online chat room friends find themselves haunted by a mysterious, supernatural force using the account of their dead friend.”
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Expectations: Good. Supernatural horror films have a solid history at the box office, though teen-targeted ones don’t. However, the blend of concepts may help boost the film to a decent, if not superb total.
Oscar Prospects: None.

April 24, 2015

The Age of Adaline

Premise: From IMDb: “A young woman, born at the turn of 20th century, is rendered ageless after an accident. After years of a solitary life, she meets a man who might be worth losing her immortality.”
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Outside of the Twilight franchise, the romantic fantasy genre doesn’t have a lot of strong business to tout. This concept seems to fit well into the genre and I would expect an above average tally wouldn’t be unexpected, especially if the film is advertised effectively.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Little Boy

Premise: From IMDb: “A 7-year-old boy is willing to do whatever it takes to end World War II so he can bring his father home. The story reveals the indescribable love a father has for his little boy and the love a son has for his father”
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Expectations: Poor. Currently schedule to open wide, there’s nothing about the film’s premise that suggests it will do a lot of business and with no big names attached, I’d be shocked if it didn’t open outside of the top ten. Of course, good advertising could help.
Oscar Prospects: None.

The Water Diviner

Premise: From IMDb: “An Australian man travels to Turkey after the Battle of Gallipoli to try and locate his three missing sons.”
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Russell Crowe’s directorial debut is in a genre that hasn’t done well at the box office in quite some time. That suggests the film may not have a lot of legs. However, if the ads can tout its haul at the Australian Academy Awards and not seem pretentious, it could do much better than currently expected.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. It may have stormed the Australian Academy Awards with eight nominations and three wins, including Best Picture, but the competition is much lighter down under wear annual film prediction is muted compared to that in the U.S. Against much more entrenched competition and with reviews that aren’t sounding very ecstatic, I suspect the film will be easily forgotten by the end of the year.