September 5, 2014

The Green Inferno

Box Office Prediction: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Apart from his original Hostel, Eli Roth hasn’t been able to sell horror to mass audiences in the same way supernatural horror is being sold. Therefore, don’t expect much from this one, especially in the post-Labor Day Weekend slot.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: The film appears to have been pulled from the release schedule, which isn’t terribly surprising all things considered.

September 12, 2014

Before I Got to Sleep

Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. I don’t expect the film to do well. Nicole Kidman just hasn’t been on fire in years. The film also doesn’t sound nearly as exciting as it will need to in order to bring auds to the theater.”
Box Office Results: $3.2 M
Thoughts: The film was shifted to a Halloween release, which didn’t help it much. I’ll have more thoughts next month when I tackle the October releases.

Dolphin Tale 2

Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. Inspirational sagas tend to draw audiences looking for a respite from the world’s ills. After the original film ended up a surprise hit, interest may have increased enough to bring more people to the theaters.”
Box Office Results: $42.0 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Proof that surprise family hits don’t always bring audiences back to the theater, Dolphin Tale 2 highlights how most families would prefer to wait until video to make a film a hit than drag everyone out to the theater to watch a sequel.

No Good Deed

Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Many of the most popular films with predominantly black casts have been romantic comedies. Dramas tend not to do well and action films are a rare occurrence. This fact might help No Good Deed pull in more money than expected.”
Box Office Results: $52.5 M
Thoughts: [Success] No one would say this is an outsized hit, but it’s proof that there’s a decently-sized, dedicated audience for this type of material, so this result will sure push studios to greenlight more such projects.

Search Party

Box Office Prediction: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. With a cast unfamiliar to most audiences and a premise that just doesn’t sound that original, this film is likely to perform poorly.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: It’s another September release that got bumped for reasons that probably have more to do with quality than with anything else.

September 19, 2014

The Maze Runner

Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: ” Decent. Call it another attempt to tap into the tween market that might not go over as well as the producers hope. Still, the concept is unique enough and the stars young and good looking enough that it might be popular.”
Box Office Results: $102.4 M
Thoughts: [Success] Studios may have found their another solidly-performing young adult property to invest in. This tally assures that at least the next book (and most likely all other books) will be filmed.

This Is Where I Leave You

Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. There are some great actors involved, but this type of film hasn’t been lighting up the box office lately, which could give it some trouble trying to break-out from the September pack.”
Box Office Results: $34.3 M
Thoughts: [Flop] September Sleepers just aren’t that common anymore as yet another ensemble comedy has gone down in defeat to an indifferent audience.

Tusk

Box Office Prediction: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. Kevin Smith just isn’t as popular as he seems to think he is. While he has built a hefty set of fans with his slacker comedies and dramas, his traditional material just doesn’t do well and his past experience with horror was a flop. I wouldn’t expect this surreal comedy horror to be that big.”
Box Office Results: $1.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] There’s a reason Kevin Smith has been going further off the reservation with his films. He’s hoping to reverse is downward trend of box office performance. Yet, the quirky Clerks seems about as far from a film about a man turning into a walrus as you can get and no one seemed to show the least bit of interest in it, other than perhaps to see what kind of train wreck it would be.

A Walk Among the Tombstones

Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Liam Neeson is either on fire or lukewarm. Several of his films have been quite popular, but there are more than a few that have done less-than-impressive business at the box office. This one might fall more into the Taken/Non-Stop vein rather than the Grey area.”
Box Office Results: $26.3 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Not everything Liam Neeson touches is gold and in spite of some decent reviews, his coldly calculating, low-action thriller just wasn’t what his legions of fans wanted. At least he was trying.

The Zero Theorem (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. The film could follow past Terry Gilliam films into the Oscar races, especially in creative categories, but it’s been a long time since he’s been viable.”
Oscar Results: The film turned out to be a critical and box office dud. Oscar had far too many other options this year.
Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. Terry Gilliam is one of these curiosities that makes films that seem to somewhat please critics and appeal to a large niche audience, but who can’t get people to the theater to save his life. The trailers suggest the film is very much in his narrative wheelhouse, but that it’s not a film that will draw big numbers to the theaters.”
Box Office Results: $257.7 K
Thoughts: [Flop] There’s nothing that the eclectic Terry Gilliam can do to get audiences into the theaters. This seemed like his most Gilliam-esque film in years and hardly anyone showed up.

September 26, 2014

The Boxtrolls

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. Two films to date, Laika has managed a 100% nomination ratio with the Academy. This film, with all of its excitement and adventure and an underpopulated year of animated films, could very easily snag a nod.”
Oscar Results: As expected, Laika’s third directly-produced feature landed a Best Animated Feature nomination. A win is unlikely.
Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. While it may not have the cachet of the big studio computer animated adventures, Laika has quietly amassed an impressive record of films that do decent mid-sized business at the box office. This might be the film to finally push out of that arena with its very kid-friendly characters.”
Box Office Results: $50.8 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Success] On target with expectations, The Boxtrolls didn’t quite live up to the impressive numbers of its predecessors, but this is soldi business.

The Equalizer

Box Office Prediction: $70 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Denzel Washington is one of the safest bets at the box office out there. He has had very few films that have been outright flops and many of them have fallen into the “successful” column even if they weren’t runaway successes. This one should be another strong performer for him.”
Box Office Results: $101.5 M
Thoughts: [Success] Liam Neeson’s got nothing on Denzel Washington. While Neeson has taken the aged action star motif to strong box office returns, Washington has been doing excellent box office business for years and that trend doesn’t seem to be letting up.

The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby (Limited)

Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The film was originally created as two, one from a male perspective and one from a female perspective, but they will be combined for U.S. distribution. After the Nymphomaniac situation, I’m not surprised. The story’s interesting, but the concept may just be too niche to spread beyond the specialty box office.”
Box Office Results: $587.8 K
Thoughts: [Flop] It got no awards push and, as a result, was completely ignored, even at the specialty box office.