As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

While the last couple of weeks have been literally or virtually dead, this week’s rush of guild nominations will make it feel like pre-Christmas all over again. Four guilds won’t announce this week, but every other one will including the Producers Guild, Art Directors, Cinematographers, Costume Designers, Writers and Make-Up Artists. We’ll also have the first of the major telecasts for awards with the Golden Globe Awards a week from today. Suffice it to say, next week’s Big Winners/Big Losers will be written prior to the Golden Globes and so, will not include thoughts on those.

There were only two groups announcing this past week and the National Film Critics Society was so off-the-wall in places and rote in others that they don’t really have anything they can point to as creating a big win or big loss for any particular film/performance. That leaves only the American Cinema Editors who did ruffle some feathers and give some boosts to certain films.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 7

Monday, Jan. 5 – Art Directors Nominations (Official)
Monday, Jan. 5 – Georgia Film Critics Association Nominations (Official)
Monday, Jan. 5 – Producers Guild Nominations (Official)
Monday, Jan. 5 – Vancouver Critics Awards (Official)
Tuesday, Jan. 6 – Oklahoma Critics Awards (Unconfirmed)
Tuesday, Jan. 6 – Toronto Critics – Canadian Film Awards (Official)
Wednesday, Jan. 7 – Cinematographers Nominations (Official)
Wednesday, Jan. 7 – Costume Designers Nominations (Official)
Wednesday, Jan. 7 – Writers Guild Nominations (Official)
Thursday, Jan. 8 – Academy Awards Voting Ends Nominations (Official)
Thursday, Jan. 8 – Make-Up Artists Guild Nominations (Official)
Thursday, Jan. 8 – USC Scripter Nominations (Official)
Friday, Jan. 9 – British Academy Nominations (Official)
Friday, Jan. 9 – Georgia Film Critics Association Awards (Official)
Sunday, Jan. 11 – Golden Globes Awards (Official)

Big Winners

American Sniper is the late-release feature from Clint Eastwood that has been quietly building buzz since it’s debut the same week of Unbroken. While Angelina Jolie’s film gained most of the attention, American Sniper was well liked enough that it’s been making small appearances here and there and, as a result, seems to be entering the conversation much stronger than expected. The editors choosing the film over more obvious Oscar contenders shows it has a good level of support among guilds.
Gone Girl continues to chug along in spite of attempts to paint it as a fading glory. David Fincher’s films pick up nominations from ACE quite frequently, so we can’t take this as a perfect sign, but it’s a strong enough boost that it could avoid the Girl with the Dragon Tattoo fate.
Nightcrawler was mostly dismissed when it was released, many critics loving the film, but falling short of giving it the level of attention a future Best Picture nominee needs. Yet, through precursor season, it’s quietly amassed a bounty of awards and nominations. With this support, it gets a healthy Best Picture boost at a time when other films seem to be coasting along.
Whiplash is another film that never felt like a strong Best Picture nomination contender. It was a small, indie drama that earned heaps of praise for supporting actor J.K. Simmons but didn’t seem like it had much a prayer elsewhere. However, it’s gotten enough attention lately and some high profile support, making it a very strong contender for a Best Picture nomination.
Guardians of the Galaxy would seem like just a fluffy, Marvel film that earns nominations in creative categories, but is avoided in major categories. Yet, the film has reached a sort of zeitgeist that puts it in the kind of position films like Star Wars and Raiders of the Lost Ark were in when they charged into a five-wide slate for nominations at the Oscars. While there aren’t many competitors in the comedy and musical category, this nomination gives it some support as being a dark horse Best Picture contender.
The Grand Budapest Hotel is the film that just won’t quit. It was dismissed early in the game due to its pre-summer release, but it’s consistently stayed in the critics’ hunt, giving it a profile that makes it seem like an inevitable Best Picture nominee.

Big Losers

Selma was emerging as one of the frontrunners for a Best Picture win, but it’s failure to score an editing nomination from ACE puts its potential in jeopardy. The Best Editing category at the Oscars is one of the most accurate predictors of a film’s chances at winning Best Picture. Even films that failed to secure Best Director nominations in recent years have at least shown up in editing and even ACE. The last time a film didn’t get ACE and still won was 1989 when Driving Miss Daisy failed to score for editing at ACE. That’s a good precedent for Selma considering the film’s subject matter, but it’s not a great one. If it still gets into the Best Editing category at the Oscars, you should take it seriously again.
Interstellar has almost entirely faded from the race for major Oscar recognition. A lack of editing nomination, especially for a big budget sci-fi spectacle hurts the film even more, perhaps placing the final nail in its coffin. The PGA is the only place the film can be rescued at this point.
The Theory of Everything has been labeled as a sure thing or a near sure thing for much of awards season. Yet, it failed to get a nomination here. That’s not a death knell, but it shows the film has considerable weaknesses in its attempt to secure a Best Picture nomination.
Unbroken continues to take hits as it slips into obscurity slowly. The only thing that gives the film support right now is a healthy box office tally, its connection to Oscar-friendly World War II and its high profile star director. Other than that, it’s beginning to seem like an also-ran at this point.
A Most Violent Year came out very late in the cycle and while it’s gotten a lot of support from critics, that New Year’s Eve release may hurt it more than anything. While I never expected it to get nominated here, failure to do so doesn’t give it a shot in the arm that it might need to get nominated anywhere other than Best Supporting Actress.