The end of the year brings the most combative environment for films trying to become Oscar winners. The next four months will be an interesting proving round.

January 2-4, 2015

The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death

Premise: From IMDb: “40 years after the first haunting at Eel Marsh House, a group of children evacuated from WWII London arrive, awakening the house’s darkest inhabitant.”
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Expectations: Uncertain. The Woman in Black was a decent horror hit in 2012, but it’s been three years since that film came out and part of its sale was star Daniel Radcliffe who isn’t in this sequel. It may still perform adequately as haunted house horror does, but it won’t top its predecessor easily.
Oscar Prospects: None.

A Most Violent Year (Limited, on Dec. 31, 2014)

Premise: From IMDb: “In New York City 1981, an ambitious immigrant fights to protect his business and family during the most dangerous year in the city’s history.”
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Expectations: Uncertain. The premise doesn’t sound like something audiences would rush right out and see, yet the critics might bolster the film’s chances among Oscar aficionados believing it could be nominated. Yet, ultimately I think it will do modest business, but never quite catch on with the general public.
Oscar Prospects: Good. This is a 2014 candidate. Jessica Chastain as been on my shortlist for much of the year for her supporting performance in this film. Oscar Isaac seems to be well liked, but faces far too much competition to push through. The film could make appearances in a handful of categories, but I suspect Chastain may be its only mention.

January 9-11, 2015

Taken 3

Premise: From IMDb: “Bryan Mills, an Ex-government operative is accused of a ruthless murder he never committed or witnessed as he is tracked and pursued, Bryan Mills brings out his particular set of skills to find the true killer and clear his name.”
Box Office Prospects: $120 M
Expectations: Decent. The first two films made more than $130 million at the box office. sequel fatigue didn’t hit the second film much, but it was off its predecessor. The far-fetched stretching the producers are doing to shoehorn this new film might stretch credulity a bit much. It will still be pretty big, but it will take a steeper drop from the second film than its predecessor.
Oscar Prospects: None.

January 16-18, 2015

Blackhat

Premise: From IMDb: “A man is released from prison to help American and Chinese authorities pursue a mysterious cyber criminal. The dangerous search leads them from Chicago to Hong Kong.”
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Director Michael Mann has a surprisingly strong box office track record and this film falls in a period where carefully crafted action thrillers can perform well. However, I don’t think it will be an outsized hit.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. Michael Mann hasn’t been much of an Oscar competitor in recent years. With the January release, I doubt he’ll be remembered by year’s end.

Paddington

Premise: From IMDb: “A young English boy befriends a talking bear he finds at a London train station. A live-action feature based on the series of popular children’s books by Michael Bond.”
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Expectations: Weak. Moved out of its cushy pre-Christmas release, the film must have serious quality issues to find itself lodged in the family fare dead zone of January.
Oscar Prospects: Poor. The Academy doesn’t typically care about family films as it stands, but ones that are scheduled for Christmas releases and then bumped into the New Year already smell like failures, so no one will even remember it was released eleven months later.

The Wedding Ringer

Premise: From IMDb: “A shy young groom needs to impress his in-laws, so he turns to a best-man-for-hire to help him out.”
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Expectations: Decent. While more recent releases haven’t been as successful, the wedding genre, especially comedies, have been fertile ground for studios over the year and the pure outlandishness of this concept may be enough to turn it into a hit. That and the fact that there’s very little humor available at this point in the year.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Still Alice (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “Alice Howland, happily married with three grown children, is a renowned linguistics professor who starts to forget words. When she receives a devastating diagnosis, Alice and her family find their bonds tested.”
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Expectations: Weak. In spite of this being a frontrunner for Best Actress Julianne Moore, the prospects of the film becoming a box office hit are minimal. The dreary subject matter won’t pique much interest outside of Oscar fans completing their viewing lists, so if it becomes a hit, I think it will be a surprise to everyone.
Oscar Prospects: Good. This is a 2014 contender. Julianne Moore is the oft-nominated actress who everyone in Hollywood seems to think should have an Oscar but doesn’t. She should have won twice before now, but blend the juicy role with her never-won status and she’s become something of a juggernaut. If she can steamroll through the precursor awards, or at least perform exceptionally well, it may be hers to lose.

January 23-25, 2015

The Boy Next Door

Premise: From IMDb: “A divorced woman falls in love with the young man who moves in to the street and finds he has a dark secret.”
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Jennifer Lopez has had hits, but she’s mostly had duds, which this one could very well turn into. It’s not releasing in a window that makes much sense, so a box office victory would be surprising even as counter-programming to Mortdecai.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Mortdecai

Premise: From IMDb: “Art dealer Charles Mortdecai searches for a stolen painting that’s reportedly linked to a lost bank account filled with Nazi gold.”
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: Decent. Having come off a recent streak of poorly reviewed films, Johnny Depp still has a firm grasp on box office. His weakest performers typically pass $50 million with a handful of true duds otherwise. This one plays into his zany wheelhouse well, but that didn’t help either Dark Shadows or The Lone Ranger become unqualified hits.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Strange Magic

Premise: From IMDb: “A fairy tale of goblins, fairies and imps meeting for the first time and the consequent confusions and conflicts the culture clash causes.”
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Expectations: Decent. Disney typically has luck with computer animated fantasies, but they don’t always have luck with non-prime release windows. Typically, January and February have alternating success and failure track records for animated films. They still make decent money, but not always the level of money Disney has typically enjoyed. The film, however, isn’t produced by Disney and is directed by longtime visual effects wizard Gary Rydstrom for Industrial Light and Magic. Whether it can pique the interest of Star Wars fanboys or not may determine just how high it can fly.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. Disney’s going to have Pixar’s Inside Out to plug for this year’s Oscars, but it won’t have one of its own productions until 2016. That means they’ll have some spare resources to push this film, but if it tanks at the box office or with critics, they’ll leave it hanging out to dry.

Mommy (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A widowed single mother, raising her violent son alone, finds new hope when a mysterious neighbor inserts herself into their household.”
Box Office Prospects: $0.5 M
Expectations: Poor. Foreign language films, especially indies, just don’t have the kind of clout necessary to become box office hits, even on at the specialty box office. With an Oscar nomination, it could do satisfactory business, but as last year’s nominees for Best Foreign Language film, only two topped $500K and one topped $2.8 million.
Oscar Prospects: Good. While the film has been labeled as difficult to sell, it’s one of the most prominent foreign language films in the race this year. It won’t likely get the support of regular voters, but a couple of slots on the shortlist are typically chosen by the board who picks less broadly friendly films to include so their lists don’t look like they are entirely disconnected from reality. Those films still don’t have a guarantee of nomination, but they have a better shot of being seen in a field of 9 or 11 films rather than in a group of 83.

January 30-February 1, 2015

Timbuktu

Premise: From IMDb: “A look at the brief occupation of Timbuktu by militant Islamic rebels.”
Box Office Prospects: $0.1 M
Expectations: Poor. Another foreign language film that isn’t likely to light up the box office. This one doesn’t have the pedigree or accessibility of something like Mommy, so it will require Oscar attention to even get close to this prediction.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. Mauritania is a first-time submitter to the Oscars, which won’t give its film any foundation to lobby an effective campaign. It will have to be beloved by those who watch it to make it through.

Project Almanac

Premise: From IMDb: “A group of teens discover secret plans of a time machine, and construct one. However, things start to get out of control.”
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Weak. Another teen-targeted sci-fi/superhero kind of film built on a shoestring budget with no-name actors hoping to draw disaffected teens to the box office. If it’s much of a hit, it will be a surprise.
Oscar Prospects: None.