June 6, 2014

Edge of Tomorrow

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. Just like audiences don’t care if Tom Cruise stars in a new movie, the Oscars don’t seem to care if he’s in one either. Most of the films he’s been in in the last few years have failed to muster support for Oscar nominations, so don’t expect much here. If it does show up, only the sound and visual effects categories are possibilities.”
Oscar Results: As I suspected, the landscape doesn’t look good, especially for a film that was considered to be such an under-performer that the studio changed the title of the film for its home video debut.
Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Mediocre. Although science fiction has been doing well at the box office, Tom Cruise has had trouble tapping into that market. Other than guaranteed successes in franchises, Cruise’s original films have been successful, but not much so. This is around the average of his non-tentpole efforts and although he’s got a prime Summer position, there’s too much before and after to keep him in the money for long.”
Box Office Results: $100.2 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Weak. Tom Cruise hasn’t been a box office titan for some time, but his films always perform adequately. This one exceeded most expectations, though it wasn’t the level of hit the studio really wanted.

The Fault in Our Stars

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Doubtful. If critics love the film, it could be an Oscar contender, but it will require a sizable box office to be remembered by year end. A 6-month window for an indie drama that has no guarantee of box office legs won’t be helpful. It could still prove attractive to Oscar voters if the stars align.”
Oscar Results: The critics were surprisingly amenable to the film and it did quite well with audiences. That could make it a stealth nominee in several top categories. Ultimately, I doubt that the film will be remembered well enough by year’s-end to really give it much of a go.
Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Mediocre. Some think that this film will be a hit since it’s based on a popular book. However, the conventional nature of the trailer and the lack of recognizable faces (Shailene Woodley now has the Divergent hit bolstering her visibility, but looks little like her familiar self in the trailer) won’t give the film much versatility at the box office. It could be a word-of-mouth hit, but that didn’t help films like The Spectacular Now or The Perks of Being a Wallflower.”
Box Office Results: $124.9 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] Far exceeding my personal expectations, the beloved book on which the film is based apparently drove audiences to the theater in spite of its clearly weepy narrative.

June 13, 2014

22 Jump Street

Box Office Prediction: $125 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. The first film was a nearly-$140 million success. That’s enough for a sequel, but sequel fatigue often sets in no matter how popular a prior film was. There are exceptions to this rule, but I doubt this will be one of them.”
Box Office Results: $191.1 M
Thoughts: [Success] Proof that a popular concept executed well and with critics behind it can soar in its second outing.

How to Train Your Dragon 2

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. If the first film hadn’t been up against awards juggernaut Toy Story 3, it would have handily won Best Animated Feature. This time out, the film has notably weaker competition, but will have to be equal or better than the original to be taken seriously for consideration. Animated sequels have been disappointing in recent years, so it may not be able to live up to expectations.”
Oscar Results: While a Best Animated Feature nominee may be all but certain, the film is destined to lose out to either The Lego Movie or Big Hero 6 in spite of the very strong reception from critics.
Box Office Prediction: $250 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. The first film stunned with a tally north of $200 million. I think the sequel will climb beyond that. Animated sequels frequently do better than their predecessors when the subsequent chapter seems necessary. How to Train Your Dragon is one of DreamWorks’ most popular animated films and with very little in the way of family entertainment over the Summer, it could climb even higher than predicted.”
Box Office Results: $176.7 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] What does this franchise need to do to score a victory. In spite of a hugely popular original, which spawned a regular television series, the second film failed to ignite the box office like many expected it to. Could it be the father-son relationship that doesn’t typically appeal to young girls and their mothers? Possibly, but there are plenty of adult geeks out there that are male and should have flocked to the theater for this one.

The Rover (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Animal Kingdom earned Jacki Weaver her first Oscar nomination. However, the film was otherwise ignored. This time out, I’m sure there will be a modest push for the film to get some consideration, but it would have to be damned good and the acting would have to be near-miraculous to be much of a competitor this early in the year.”
Oscar Results: David Michod’s new outing is unlikely to generate Oscar buzz. Critics weren’t ecstatic and audiences didn’t watch it.
Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. David Michod’s prior film, Animal Kingdom had no big names, but plenty of good notices. That didn’t help its box office profile. Four years later, his directorial follow-up has bigger names attached (Guy Pearce and Robert Pattinson), so it could do much better than Animal Kingdom, but Pattinson and Pearce haven’t done any major box office work in some years, so don’t count on it.”
Box Office Results: $1.1 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] On the specialty circuit, it’s not surprising that the film topped out barely over a million. The problem is that it featured some familiar names, which should have netted it a bit more than this.

June 20, 2014

Jersey Boys

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Like Les Mis, a big musical adaptation should have an easy road to the Oscars even if it’s received with little enthusiasm by critics. Add the Eastwood name and this becomes one of the more likely contenders for Oscar consideration in several categories, including the most likely nod in Best Sound Mixing if nowhere else.”
Oscar Results: Comparisons to Les Mis were premature. Clint Eastwood’s was lukewarmly received by critics and audiences didn’t seem to care much for it. The Oscars are likely to follow suit, though there could be some possibilities in the creative categories.
Box Office Prediction: $110 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. When Clint Eastwood directs, people pay attention, but if he’s not the star the box office doesn’t align. His typical total in recent years has been around $35 million for non-starring roles. What makes this film different is that it’s a departure of genres for him. He hasn’t directed a music-oriented film since his Oscar-winning 1988 film Bird about Charlie “Bird” Parker. This touches on the same ground as Bird, which won’t necessarily help the box office, but the film will be quite popular with older audiences who are familiar with Frankie Valli and the Four Seasons. Musicals in recent years have also done quite well with most pulling in around $100 million if the base for the adaptation is well known. I’m cautiously predicting on the lower end since the musical hasn’t had time to grow in the estimation of audiences like Les Misérables did.”
Box Office Results: $47.0 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] The audience for a film like this wasn’t nearly as big as the studio likely thought. Those familiar with the subjects of the film might have been interested, but the film failed to entice new or unfamiliar viewers into the theater.

Think Like a Man Too

Box Office Prediction: $85 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The first film was one of the most popular in its genre. It may have been awhile since the prior film, but I’m certain it’s well regarded and remembered with the demographic producers expect to turn out.”
Box Office Results: $65.2 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Sequels aren’t doing nearly as well this year as they have in previous years, especially for a film with a built-in audience like this.

June 27, 2014

Transformers: Age of Extinction

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. This franchise has secured several Oscar nominations, deserved or not. There’s little doubt the film will still figure in the sound and visual effects categories. Anywhere else is impossible.”
Oscar Results: In spite of its box office failure, the film will still likely compete in the sound and visual effects categories, though competition will be a bit more aggressive this year than in prior.
Box Office Prediction: $300 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Without Shia LaBoeuf, one might be tempted to say that the Transformers series will feel too different to be as successful as its predecessors. The change in style and time period may have an impact, but Michael Bay commands large attendance for his action films even if the critics hate them. I don’t see this film not doing well even considering what changes have gone through.”
Box Office Results: $245.4 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Without the familiar settings and stars of the prior films, this future-set follow-up did well at the box office, but significantly underperformed its predecessors. That doesn’t mean the audience won’t come back for the next film or that a subsequent film won’t be made, but it does signify that Michael Bay has lost some of his mojo and needs to find a new creative outlet.

Snowpiercer

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. Harvey Weinstein won’t actively promote a film that he lost the battle on (the director won the publicity battle), so don’t expect this to be a major competitor. Those who’ve seen it suggest Tilda Swinton is a powerful force to be reckoned with, but I doubt she’ll make it to year’s end. If the editors want to support Joon-ho Bong in his desire to have full artistic control, the directors or the editors could give the film a nod, though I doubt they’ll remember to do so.”
Oscar Results: I doubt the film gets pushed too heavily even though Weinstein has few other options this year. The animosity between Harvey and Joon-ho is likely to keep the film from getting more than a paltry light push.
Box Office Prediction: $12 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Average. The public fight over the film’s editing won’t matter much to audiences who don’t seem to love Korean imports. It could be a breakaway hit, but I suspect it will have a mid-level genre performance at the box office.”
Box Office Results: $4.6 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] In spite of the bungled and pathetic roll-out the film received, it still managed to do big numbers at the box office even while being launched simultaneously on VOD.