The end of the year brings the most combative environment for films trying to become Oscar winners. The next four months will be an interesting proving round.

October 3, 2014

Annabelle

Premise: From IMDb: “John Form has found the perfect gift for his expectant wife, Mia – a beautiful, rare vintage doll in a pure white wedding dress. But Mia’s delight with Annabelle doesn’t last long. On one horrific night, their home is invaded by members of a satanic cult, who violently attack the couple. Spilled blood and terror are not all they leave behind. The cultists have conjured an entity so malevolent that nothing they did will compare to the sinister conduit to the damned that is now… Annabelle.”
Box Office Prospects: $90 M
Expectations: Decent. The Conjuring was a sizable horror hit and a sequel to a popular film tends to be popular in tandem. While I don’t expect this one to quite match its predecessor, I think a solid outing for October could be expected.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Gone Girl

Premise: From IMDb: “With his wife’s disappearance having become the focus of an intense media circus, a man sees the spotlight turned on him when it’s suspected that he may not be innocent.”
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Expectations: Good. David Fincher’s box office history has been very strong in spite of his sometimes more cerebral elements. With Ben Affleck in lead and a fascinating murder mystery to boot, I see little problem with this film topping the century mark.
Oscar Prospects: Good. Fincher is one of the unheralded modern directors the Academy seems most on the verge of recognizing. Although he should have already been Oscared twice, this could be his year, but a lot depends on the competition.

Left Behind

Premise: From IMDb: “A small group of survivors are left behind after millions of people suddenly vanish and the world is plunged into chaos and destruction”
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: Decent. While not all Christian-oriented films are box office behemoths, the combination of a popular novel and a charged environment that has made Christian films perform better than they have historically, it seems like Nicolas Cage might have his first hit in some time.
Oscar Prospects: None.

The Good Lie

Premise: From IMDb: “A Sudanese refugee is taken in by a straight-talking American woman in their new home in the United States.”
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: Poor. Reese Witherspoon has never been a box office darling and this film, despite its uplifting nature, just isn’t going to be the film to lead her to success.
Oscar Prospects: Poor. If it weren’t for the strong word of mouth on her film Wild, Witherspoon might have had some minor, but unlikely chatter about this role. Uplifting films do hit Academy voter interests, but this one seems almost too generic. Critics will determine its fate.

Men, Women & Children

Premise: From IMDb: “A look at the sexual frustrations that young teenagers and adults face in today’s world.”
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Jason Reitman had some success at the box office when he was doing big Oscar work, but since then his films have been failing to catch on. If this is an Oscar contender, I fully expect it to perform well at the box office. If not, you can probably lower my prediction by $45 million.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. The last two films Reitman put out had potential, but the critics weren’t that impressed. If they are more enamored with this project, he could be back at the Oscars.

October 10, 2014

Addicted

Premise: From IMDb: “A wife is tested when she cheats on her husband, and it threatens to ruin her and her family.”
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Expectations: Poor. It’s opening wide, but has no major stars and doesn’t seem to have a premise that demands repeat viewership. I suspect the film will not open well and might barely make the top ten in its first week.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day

Premise: From IMDb: “Alexander wakes up with gum in his hair, and things just get worse as his day progresses.”
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: Decent. Disney seems to be struggling lately with its live-action films, none of which have performed very well at the box office. This could break that trend as its based on a hugely popular novel and features Steve Carell doing what people like best from him.
Oscar Prospects: None.

The Judge

Premise: From IMDb: “Big city lawyer Hank Palmer returns to his childhood home where his father, the town’s judge, is suspected of murder.Hank sets out to discover the truth and, along the way, reconnects with his estranged family.”
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Uncertain. With Robert Downey Jr. at the top of the billing, this has to be seen as a decent prospect at the box office. However, the premise doesn’t seem nearly as engaging as it would need to be to make lots of money at the box office. If critics support it and the Oscars begin taking notice, it could do much better than predicted.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. There’s buzz surrounding the film, Downey Jr. and supporting actor Robert Duvall. I could see Duvall picking up another career-based nomination, but so far the movie doesn’t seem like Oscar bait.

Kill the Messenger (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A reporter becomes the target of a vicious smear campaign that drives him to the point of suicide after he exposes the CIA’s role in arming Contra rebels in Nicaragua and importing cocaine into California. Based on the true story of journalist Gary Webb.”
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Expectations: Uncertain. The premise would play well at the box office if political pictures were doing better with audiences. Unfortunately, they aren’t, which could mean this film has to sustain itself on positive word of mouth. That might help a little, but I can’t see this one doing much better than predicted.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Whiplash (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A young musician struggles to make it as a top jazz drummer.”
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Expectations: Weak. The concept might be enough to make it some bank on the specialty circuit, but beyond that it doesn’t seem like a cross-over kind of hit.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. The film has some minor Oscar potential based on its positive reception on the festival circuit, but other than J.K. Simmons in supporting actor, I can’t imagine where it would place.

October 17, 2014

The Best of Me

Premise: From IMDb: “A pair of former high school sweethearts reunite after many years when they return to visit their small hometown.”
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: Uncertain. The idea has merit and the stars are appealing enough that it could generate some decent heat at the box office, but a hit I doubt it will be.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Book of Life

Premise: From IMDb: “Manolo, a young man who is torn between fulfilling the expectations of his family and following his heart, embarks on an adventure that spans three fantastic worlds where he must face his greatest fears.”
Box Office Prospects: $130 M
Expectations: Good. While Fox hasn’t had a lot of non-Ice Age hits, it’s possible this one bolsters itself on the strong increase in attendance from Spanish-speaking audiences. That addition should help alleviate some of the burn off from those white audiences who aren’t as enamored with the animation style or Hispanic premise.
Oscar Prospects: Good. There aren’t a lot of hits for the Oscars to take under their wings so far this year, so this one, if any good, could be one of the few.

Dracula Untold

Premise: From IMDb: “The origin story of the man who becomes Dracula.”
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Uncertain. It’s not strictly a horror film, so building on the Halloween box office concept isn’t likely and the trailer doesn’t promise a film that’s all that different from the myriad other stylistic horror-esque films of recent memory. I suspect this one will do poorly overall, especially against stronger content for general audiences.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Fury

Premise: From IMDb: “April, 1945. As the Allies make their final push in the European Theatre, a battle-hardened army sergeant named Wardaddy commands a Sherman tankand her five-man crew on a deadly mission behind enemy lines. Outnumbered and out-gunned, and with a rookie soldier thrust into their platoon, Wardaddy and his men face overwhelming odds in their heroic attempts to strike at the heart of Nazi Germany.”
Box Office Prospects: $85 M
Expectations: Decent. War films aren’t always easy to predict at the box office. Sometimes they do far more than expected, sometimes far less. In this case, the presence of Brad Pitt may bolster the film’s chances, but the trailers suggest that the film will have a heavy anti-war bent to it, which could keep a lot of more “patriotic” folk away muting it’s chances.
Oscar Prospects: Strong. Brad Pitt has done much better with the Academy in recent years and, as a result, his chances of a win keep increasing. This seems like the kind of role that could certainly nab him a Best Actor nod, but if the film is as good as it has the potential to be, it could be Oscar catnip.

Birdman (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A washed-up actor who once played an iconic superhero must overcome his ego and family trouble as he mounts a Broadway play in a bid to reclaim his past glory.”
Box Office Prospects: $90 M
Expectations: Uncertain. I’m hedging my bets here suggesting that it will be a surprise hit after it makes its run of the specialty box office. The premise is a bit oblique for some audiences, but the presence of Michael Keaton deconstructing his post-Batman fame (or lack thereof) could appeal to a whole generation of comic book fans who grew up on the Tim Burton films.
Oscar Prospects: Good. The critics seem to be enthusiastic about the film and many are suggesting this could be Michael Keaton’s chance at an Oscar. The film is eclectic looking, but with Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu behind it, you should definitely not count it out (all four of his previous films, Amores Perros, 21 Grams, Babel and Biutiful were Oscar nominees, three of them in acting categories.

Camp X-Ray (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A soldier assigned to Guantanamo Bay befriends a man who has been imprisoned there for eight years.”
Box Office Prospects: $2 M
Expectations: Poor. Friendship in Guantanamo Bay between an inmate and a female soldier sounds like just the type of hokum that gets utterly ignored by audiences. Not only will it be too political, Kristen Stewart has shown no affinity for winning viewers at the specialty box office.
Oscar Prospects: Poor. I have seen Stewart mentioned once as a possible Oscar nominee. That one time is enough to require comment. While it’s interesting to see Stewart tackle a role (soldier) that doesn’t require anything remotely emotional; however, she’s not even come close to proving herself a capable actress and the Academy isn’t going to give her the time of day, no matter how good she is.

The Tale of Princess Kaguya (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “An old man makes a living by selling bamboo. One day, he finds a princess in a bamboo. The princess is only the size of a finger. Her name is Kaguya. When Kaguya grows up, 5 men from prestigious families propose to her. Kaguya asks the men to find memorable marriage gifts for her, but the 5 men are unable to find what Kaguya wants. Then, the Emperor of Japan proposes to her.”
Box Office Prospects: $1.5 M
Expectations: Weak. Anime films out of Japan seldom dominate the American box office, which should be the case with this film. If legendary Hayao Miyazaki has to struggle at the box office, I don’t see this film having a better opportunity.
Oscar Prospects: Strong. In recent years, the Academy’s animation branch has given recognition to small efforts, not submitted by the major studios. One potent player in that game is GKids. Their ability to snag Oscar nominations might some day become the stuff of legend. They represent this film and should have little trouble appealing to the Academy’s anime fans to get it a nomination. A win is entirely unlikely, though.

October 24, 2014

Laggies

Premise: From IMDb: “A woman stuck in permanent adolescence lies to her fiancé about going on a retreat and spends the time hanging out with friends instead.”
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: Weak. A modestly likable cast, this film doesn’t feel like a box office magnet, meaning it might do better on a platform release rather than a direct-wide release.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Ouija

Premise: From IMDb: “A group of friends must confront their most terrifying fears when they awaken the dark powers of an ancient spirit board.”
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Expectations: Uncertain. While films about possession have done well recently at the box office, most of them have featured adults being scared out of their wits. The traditional model of teens-in-peril hasn’t been generating the type of box office success it used to. combining the two might result in a box office force, but I suspect a solid, but not exceptional tally is more in the offing.
Oscar Prospects: None.

St. Vincent

Premise: From IMDb: “A young boy whose parents just divorced finds an unlikely friend and mentor in the misanthropic, bawdy, hedonistic, war veteran who lives next door.”
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Expectations: Uncertain. The film has been kept largely under wraps since it was originally supposed to debut earlier this year. It has a kind of Wes Anderson vibe, but without the Wes Anderson flair. That might give it legs at the specialty box office, but becoming a break-out hit might be a bit more difficult.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. Knowing little to nothing about the film will make it hard to assure what kind of Oscar contender it is. Some who’ve seen it think it might be, but it hasn’t really had much of a festival roll-out yet, so we’ll just have to wait and see at this point.

White Bird in a Blizzard (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “In 1988, a teenagegirl’s life is thrown into chaos when her mother disappears.”
Box Office Prospects: $4 M
Expectations: Poor. There’s no denying Shailene Woodley is becoming a second-tier Jennifer Lawrence, but this film’s odd aesthetic and premise aren’t going to help it cross-over to general audiences. On top of that, the specialty box office isn’t as forgiving of weirdness as it used to be.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. Gregg Araki is a well known and respected director in certain circles, but he’s never had an Oscar-capable success. I sincerely doubt this film will make that happen.

October 31, 2014

Before I Go to Sleep

Premise: From IMDb: “A woman wakes up every day, remembering nothing as a result of a traumatic accident in her past. One day, new terrifying truths emerge that force her to question everyone around her.”
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Expectations: Weak. The last time Nicole Kidman tried to be a box office star, it didn’t work out too well for her. This film seems only slightly more mainstream than her previous genre films (Stoker, The Invasion) and may be more in line with a film like Trespass. However, you have to go back almost a decade to find an unqualified hit.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Nightcrawler

Premise: From IMDb: “A young man stumbles upon the underground world of L.A. freelance crime journalism.”
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Expectations: Uncertain. The hardboiled crime drama hasn’t had a lot of success in recent years, but film noir may be destined for a comeback and this seems like just the kind of film to make it. Dan Gilroy has been a screenwriter on some pretty major productions, so it’s entirely possible he could craft a hit. It’s definitely not a slam-dunk, though
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. Gilroy’s directorial debut might not be the stuff of Oscar legend, but some buzz has built around Jake Gyllenhaal, who was last nominated for Brokeback Mountain nearly a decade ago. With his impressive slate of specialty titles in recent years, he might have paid his dues enough to earn some respect from the Academy. It will be a tough competition for Best Actor this year, though, so he may just end up an also-ran.