April 4, 2014

Captain America: Winter Soldier

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The two Marvel franchises that have gotten Oscar attention are Thor and Iron Man. Captain America, in spite of its period designs and strong visual effects was never nominated for the Oscars. That makes it less likely this film will, but it being the year’s only Marvel entry might help.”
Oscar Results: I made a couple of misstatements in my original post. Thor may have gotten Oscar attention, but it was never nominated. Marvel has two releases in 2014 and the other, Guardians of the Galaxy, while in the same general universe, was not directly tied to the Avengers phase of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, so it slipped my mind. That being said, a lot of visual effects pieces have emerged this year and all of them have tended to eclipse what goes on in Winter Soldier, so I’m guessing the Academy ultimately ignores the modern-set film.
Box Office Prediction: $250 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Strong. Captain America is one of the weaker performing subsets of the Avengers universe, but that may have more to do with a lack of familiarity. It came close to the first Thor and this time, I think it should pass the second Thor without much trouble.”
Box Office Results: $259.8 M
Thoughts: [Success] It certainly met expectations and slightly exceeded them to become the first non-Iron Man-featured Marvel film to pass $250 million. While the film currently sits behind the three Iron Man films and The Avengers, Guardians of the Galaxy is poised to pass it within the next week or two. Still, you can’t say this film’s performance wasn’t good.

Under the Skin

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Doubtful. Johansson is sure to generate a tiny amount of buzz for her portrayal, but don’t look for her to emerge as a real contender.”
Oscar Results: There’s no precedent that would suggest Johansson will be able to build an Oscar campaign off a film that disappointed at the box office like this one did.
Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Scarlett Johansson has two projects opening on the same weekend. Her indie effort is unlikely to spark much attention at the specialty box office, not because it’s not an interesting premise, but because the trailer doesn’t really tell you much about the film and may be too quirky for a lot of indie attendees.”
Box Office Results: $2.6 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The film’s performance doesn’t tell us much about how well Scarlett Johansson would do in a lead role as the poor marketing seems to have left the film ignored by audiences.

April 11, 2014

Draft Day

Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Kevin Costner has been trying hard to make a box office name for himself, but has struggled in his prior two outings. That said, sports dramas tend to do consistent business with audiences. The film, however, is action-lite and may not seem that exciting to prospective viewers. It could be a hit like Jerry Maguire was, though that film had an added romantic subplot that doesn’t seem to be present in this outing. However, that’s the closest comparative to this as that dealt with the behind-the-scenes environment of the sports world and not the actual sport itself.”
Box Office Results: $28.8 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Another sports dud. Kevin Costner just doesn’t have the muscle to sell a blockbuster these days (this is his second mediocre opening in so many years). That paired with a concept that, in the trailer, didn’t look to be too thrilling, cost the film a lot at the box office and the results are not good.

Oculus

Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. For horror films, a great premise can take you a long way. A weak or convoluted premise can keep audiences away. So far, this doesn’t have much promise of delivering a broad audience.”
Box Office Results: $27.7 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] In spite of solid reviews, the film’s confusing trailer only devalued the film’s chances of performing at the box office. Had it spent time in previews and then released at the box office, it might have done a bit better.

Rio 2

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. The first film wasn’t Oscar nominated for Best Animated Feature and unless this is an unqualified success, both critically and financially, I cannot seee the film triumphing over likely more “important” features this year.”
Oscar Results: There’s been virtually no buzz surrounding the film and I doubt that it will conjure up any Oscar magic as a result.
Box Office Prediction: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Its predecessor did under $150 million in business, so the sequel should surpass it. With few children’s films in the area, it could do better than expected. However, the Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs sequel didn’t improve on its predecessor, which was a reasonably popular film, like Rio was.”
Box Office Results: $131.5 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Minor Success] The dearth of animated films this year hasn’t really bolstered attendance as one would expect. This sequel should have done a bit better than it did. That’s not to say this result is stingy, but it’s not the heights to which many expected the film to soar.

St. Vincent de Van Nuys

Box Office Prediction: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. On the one hand, you have Melissa McCarthy who is wildly popular right now. On the other hand, you have Bill Murray who hasn’t had a hit in nearly two decades and those that were within that timeframe weren’t hits because of his presence. This seems to be a film in the style of About Schmidt, so it could still do reasonably well.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: The film was bumped from the schedule and won’t be released until later in 2014, if at all.

April 18, 2014

Bears

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. DisneyNature just can’t make inroads at the Oscars. That may largely be the fault of the current Documentary branch, which seems to favor more politically challenging documentaries that tackle important topics. As much as cute animals are important, especially to environmentally-conscious Hollywood, they just aren’t significant enough for Oscar consideration.”
Oscar Results: No Oscar for you.
Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The DisneyNature docs haven’t been a box office force. They’ve been consistent, but not exceptional.”
Box Office Results: $17.8 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] About on par with the slow devaluation of the DisneyNature brand, the film didn’t quite become the weakest performing documentary in the five-film line-up, but it didn’t even come close to surpassing the second title in the franchise.

A Haunted House 2

Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. The first film did well tapping into the consistent horror spoof fanbase. The sequel shouldn’t have trouble building on that reputation and increasing its numbers, but the franchise will eventually collapse like the Scary Movies did. Just not this time out.”
Box Office Results: $17.3 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Last year, a great deal was made over Haunted House‘s significant improvement on the latest incarnation of Scary Movie. This was suggesting a new franchise in the horror spoof genre to take flight. Yet, the second film was a severe disappointment and pretty much showcases just how little is left to milk in the genre.

Heaven Is for Real

Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The title makes one think that this is one of those Christians-only films extolling the virtues of God. However, this appears to be a singularly Hollywood production. That said, it could still appeal to that demo and pull in a few other fans of the novel as well. Whether that means more than a middling success or not is uncertain.”
Box Office Results: $91.4 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] To make a big success of a Christian-themed film, either Mel Gibson has to be involved or it has to appeal to a broader cross-section of the religious community. This film managed to succeed where others have failed. Whether this means a genuine attempt to pull Christian audiences to the theater by Hollywood, or a one-off cash cow remains to be seen, but the upcoming spate of Bible-themed projects might prove to be lucrative, especially if they can keep from being preachy.

Transcendence

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. If it’s any good, there might be some buzz for it, especially Depp’s performance or the screenplay, but I wouldn’t bet anything on that distant possibility.”
Oscar Results: Stick a fork in this one. It’s done.
Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. The premise is unique enough that it could position itself for a nice return, but sci-fi is often a dicey proposition at the box office. Having Johnny Depp star may help with that, but releasing in April probably won’t.”
Box Office Results: $23.0 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Science fiction is one of the most uneven genres currently getting produced in Hollywood. With a big star whose not had a lot of box office clout in recent years, the film so far underperformed that it will be a surprise if anyone really tries to get Johnny Depp into a leading role in a potential blockbuster again, unless it’s a Pirates of the Caribbean sequel.

April 25, 2014

Brick Mansions

Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Releasing wide may give it a boost that it wouldn’t have had at the specialty box office, but producers are likely building the film’s hopes too much on the popularity of source film District B13. Paul Walker’s passing might boost the curiosity factor, but I’m not sure it can get past its quasi-futuristic setting, a typical box office stumbling block. There isn’t a lot of precedent out there for films featuring Parkour in any meaningful way, so it could do well based on an action-heavy trailer or audiences may just not care enough to step out of their comfort zone.”
Box Office Results: $20.4 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Parkour is popular with the young demographic at which this film was targeted, but that doesn’t mean a lot when the films continue to perform poorly at the box office. Unless it’s part of an established franchise like Bourne Ultimatum, there’s really not much chance of wide-spread cinematic profitability.

The Other Woman

Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. While there have been other romantic comedies at the box office this year, this film seems to be a much bigger potential box office hit than those others. Cameron Diaz has a certain popularity that may enable the film to launch high. Pair that with a genuinely funny trailer and it could be one of the few stand-outs of April.”
Box Office Results: $83.9 M
Thoughts: [Success] R-rated comedies continue to perform strongly. While not all of them are successes, this one had the benefit of weak competition and a trio of funny ladies headlined by Cameron Diaz to propel it past the $80 million mark.

The Quiet Ones

Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Another questionable horror prospect, this one trying to create a new premise out of an aging one. Attempting to create a poltergeist instead of battling one might give the film a boost, but the trailers are going to be downright chilling to tackle something so untested in the marketplace.”
Box Office Results: $8.5 M
Thoughts: [Flop] A dismal and disastrous box office total for a film that wanted so desperately to milk the poltergeist/found footage marketplace for easy money. It didn’t work, but that’s not going to stop the next attempt.