January 3, 2014

Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones

Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The fourth outing of the Paranormal Activity franchise didn’t do very well compared to its predecessors. This isn’t technically the fifth outing, that’s coming in October 2014. This is a Hispanic-targeted pseudo-spin-off. I doubt that fact will help it do very well.”
Box Office Results: $32.5 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The Latino heir to the extremely popular Paranormal Activity crown proved to be less interesting to the fans of the franchise, who dismissed the film as another knock-off even with the titular imprint attached.

January 10, 2014

Hercules: The Legend Begins

Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. It’s the only mega release slated for the second weekend of the year, but the previews don’t really set it apart form the normal fare of this time of the year and with no major names attached, I suspect it will have one week to prove itself and then drop precipitously from there. Being the first Hercules film out of the gate doesn’t necessarily mean it will succeed.”
Box Office Results: $18.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Other than to distinguish it from the other Hercules film due out this year, did they seriously believe this would be the first in a new franchise? No big names? That it was a box office flop tells you all you really needed to know.

January 17, 2014

Devil’s Due

Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. It’s the only horror film around and tackles devil-possession, so it could do well; however, there’s been very little advertising and against higher profile male-targeted fare, it may suffer. Finding information about this film is like searching for a needle in a haystack, so when I say there’s been very little advertising, I mean almost non-existent.”
Box Office Results: $15.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The year didn’t start out well for the horror genre with a paranormal activity film performing weakly and now a demon-possession flick bombing. Are these types of film in danger or were these exceptionally bad and poorly marketed? I’m guessing the latter.

Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit

Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. It’s the only high profile action film on the schedule for January and with hot-property Chris Pine, it could perform much better than his prior rom-com outing. Still, Jack Ryan may suffer a similar fate to Tom Cruise’s attempt to start up a Jack Reacher franchise. Jack Ryan, though, already has Hollywood bona fides, so it could do well. Right now, I expect this film to finish about where Reacher did.”
Box Office Results: $50.6 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Another potential franchise reboot was met with mixed reactions and an indifferent public proving that Chris Pine is not the man to launch anything and had very little to do with the success of Star Trek (much to the studio’s chagrin, I’m sure).

The Nut Job

Box Office Prediction: $12 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. This is only the third computer animated film to release in January. The prior two released in 2007 and 2008 and failed to pass $16 million at the box office and at least one of those had a much larger reputation backing it. Still, families might want something else to watch post-holidays, but I doubt this will be their choice.”
Box Office Results: $64.3 M
Thoughts: [Success] When you have no kiddie fare, even films with poor reviews can become successes. While this is nothing compared to the big studios’ efforts, this is enough to warrant a sequel and mark it as a success.

Ride Along

Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Black audiences love to go to the movies when they have protagonists worth watching. Ice Cube and Kevin Hart have pretty solid reputations and could pull in a solid cross-demo audience, making this a decent hit.”
Box Office Results: $134.2 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] As Eddie Murphy proved in the 1980’s, the cop comedy genre is ripe for success. With successful franchises built around Beverly Hills Cop, Lethal Weapon and Die Hard, it’s no surprise that another new franchise was born by the success of this particular adventure.

January 24, 2014

I, Frankenstein

Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. While using the film’s tangential Underworld connections may help find an audience, the film looks like mostly a rehash and won’t do incredibly well for those who aren’t fans of the source material.”
Box Office Results: $19.1 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Poor Aaron Eckhart can’t catch a break, nor can any franchise built around the dark, World of Darkness-styled environments that have been significant flops in recent years. None of replicated the success of Underworld, but they keep trying. This might be the final nail in that coffin.

January 31, 2014

That Awkward Moment

Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Zac Efron keeps trying to find a hit and continues to struggle in his post-High School Musical years. Unless teen audiences turn out in droves, I expect this to be another dud for him.”
Box Office Results: $26.1 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] It did better than I expected, but it wasn’t the success the studio anticipated when the signed on three top young talents. The premise may have been very appealing to the tween audiences, but the marketing was all over the place and audience’s just didn’t seem to think this was worth driving out to the movies to see. My guess is that it doesn’t satisfactory but unexceptional business on home video.