December 6, 2013

Out of the Furnace

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. There’s talk about the film being an Oscar contender and the names attached to the film might indicate that; however, Killing Them Softly had similar buzz and ended up almost completely ignored. I suspect the same fate here.”
Oscar Results: No one even remembers this film, let alone voted for it.
Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The previews aren’t terribly good and it doesn’t seem like the film has generated anything in the way of buzz. That combination with the post-Thanksgiving slotting should keep the film from doing very well. Scheduling it here suggests the studio doesn’t have much confidence. They hope for a hit, but they don’t expect it. As a frame of reference, the same thing happened to Brad Pitt’s Killing Them Softly last year, but this may be a bit more accessible than that film.”
Box Office Results: $11.3 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The post-Thanksgiving launch window is terrible and this result is in line with past results.

Inside Llewyn Davis (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. With ten nomination slots for Best Picture possible, there’s little doubt their latest won’t enter the list. Even A Serious Man managed a nomination even if some consider it minor Coens. This film is doing far better with critics it seems and has more accessible material in it, which should help it win over audiences, which could bolster its chances at the Oscar. I suspect, though, that other than the creative categories, this film will probably end up with A Serious Man-level above-the-line support with some acting nominations also possible.”
Oscar Results: The year’s Best Picture race was so clustered that the Coens missed the top slate by a narrow margin, surprising a lot of prognosticators in the process. It still managed a small handful of nominations, but it was a far cry from what we would have expected months before.
Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. For indie directors, Joel and Ethan Coen have done fairly strong business on the open marketplace. While it’s unlikely the film will touch their top film today (True Grit), it won’t be as dismal a performer as A Serious Man. I expect it will generate business on the Burn After Reading level and possibly as high as No Country for Old Men if Oscar takes notice.”
Box Office Results: $13.2 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] With no Oscar attention to bolster its chances, the Coens faithful may have been the only ones who made it out to the theater and even some of them appear to have waited for home video with one of their worst box office performances ever.

December 13, 2013

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. While the first three films were all Oscar juggernauts with all of them earning Best Picture nominations, the weaknesses of the first Hobbit torpedoed its chances in the above-the-line categories. It still earned three Oscar nominations. It may not seem like much, but it’s still a good result. I suspect this film will follow a similar path, though much beyond three isn’t really expected unless it turns out to be a far better film than its predecessor (at least in some eyes).”
Oscar Results: While not in the same categories as its predecessor, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug ended up with exactly three nominations.
Box Office Prediction: $340 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. Peter Jackson is guaranteed to top $250 million with his fifth film set in the J.R.R. Tolkien universe. While An Unexpected Journey lagged behind the prior three films slightly, it still topped $300 million. This second adventure is a lot more action oriented and features the famed dragon of the novel, Smaug. With the promise of more compelling action than its predecessor, I suspect The Desolation of Smaug will out-perform Journey and possibly approach beating The Two Towers.”
Box Office Results: $258.4 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Unless you live up to expectations, it’s impossible to seem like much of a success. In spite of the box office power of its predecessors, The Desolation of Smaug suffered typical middle-chapter syndrome.

Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas

Box Office Prediction: $70 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Tyler Perry’s defining character is Madea, a character he plays in drag to great success. Other than Big Happy Family, all of his Madea films have passed $60 million even when his non-Madea efforts have struggled to keep up. Combine that with the Christmas-themed elements and you could see a decent-sized holiday hit.”
Box Office Results: $52.5 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] While a tally like this is nothing to shake a stick at, Tyler Perry’s brand may have faded back to its pre-super-popularity phase with a respectable, but unexceptional total.

American Hustle (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. On name alone, the film should be a strong contender. However, it’s one of the last Oscar contenders not yet seen by critics. If it’s exceptionally good, it could be a strong contender and even if it isn’t, the nominations in the creative categories should be assured.”
Oscar Results: Critics did embrace the film and it ended up securing 10 nominations. Yet, it now shares a dubious distinction of being one of the most nominated films in Oscar history to receive zero awards.
Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Subject matter and cast should help the film succeed, though that prospect should have helped a film like Gangster Squad and didn’t. Still, this cast has a lot more going for it than that film and the director’s on something of a populist renaissance in recent years.”
Box Office Results: $150.1 M
Thoughts: [Success] While its Oscar fortunes were strong, but unrewarded, at least the producers can look back and say they made some money. Not only was the film a success, it well surpassed expectations.

Saving Mr. Banks (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The film has generated a lot of buzz since it started making appearances at festivals, but full fledged reviews haven’t made the circuits yet. Still, the positive receipt of the film could go a long way in securing it Oscar consideration. Whether it can make it into Best Picture or not is a big question, but Emma Thompson is sounding more like an assured Best Actress nominee every day. Tom Hanks, as Walt Disney, is now being pushed in Best Supporting Actor, but there’s backlash brewing over this decision, so he may end up non-nominated. The film could also end up in several creative categories if it’s fanciful enough.”
Oscar Results: While the film’s prospects built up after my intiail post, the film ultimately flopped with Oscar earning a single nomination, one that few had expected to be its sole representation: Best Original Score.
Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. The Disney connection is the selling point of the film and it’s being positioned as a family feature with romantic elements, which could give it broad cross-category appeal. Whether the movie can do huge business depends on whether it really is a universal story or if the only selling points are Disney and Mary Poppins and little else. Criics may help, but they won’t be definitively supportive.”
Box Office Results: $83.3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] While not as huge a hit as Mary Poppins around which this film is based, the film still did decent box office. I’m sure parent Disney isn’t terribly impressed, though.

December 20, 2013

Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues

Box Office Prediction: $135 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Strong. The first film rode strong word of mouth to a $85 million tally back in 2004. After nine years and lots of anticipation, the studios are bringing the ’70’s newscasters back for another go at the box office. With the popularity of the property from the home video market and critics alike, it’s likely the film will pull in quite a bit more than its predecessor. How much more is uncertain.”
Box Office Results: $125.2 M
Thoughts: [Success] Nostalgia. The film may have been steeped in it, but audiences didn’t quite respond as expected. The tally is satisfying, but still a tad disappointing considering the purported popularity of the original.

Walking with Dinosaurs

Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. It’s a family film that might not appeal too much to families. Dinosaur films haven’t had the best of luck at the box office, Jurassic Park exclusive. Entering the holiday fray requires some great marketing and so far this film hasn’t gotten a very good push. It could do so-so business, but I wouldn’t expect much.”
Box Office Results: $36.1 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] It wasn’t the go-to family film of the season, but it still performed within expectations.

Her (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Decent. [Being John] Malkovich earned three Oscar nominations, one in acting, one in direction and one in writing. Adaptation. nabbed three acting nominations and one writing nomination. It’s possible that Her will also pick up an acting nomination; although Best Actor is very tight this year, Joaquin Phoenix already pushed through to a nomination once for The Master, thus it’s quite possible. It’s best opportunity is in writing where it would more easily follow his first two films’ trajectories. Other than that, a 10-wide field for Best Picture could give it a chance there, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.”
Oscar Results: The film did extremely well at the Oscars nabbing five Oscar nominations including Best Picture and taking home the prize for Best Original Screenplay. This is the kind of performance we would have expected from Inside Llewyn Davis.
Box Office Prediction: $22 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. Spike Jonze has made three films prior to this, Being John Malkovich, Adaptation. and Where the Wild Things Are. He’s been making videos in between, but the limited output has made it difficult for anyone to latch onto his name as a go-to box office draw. His first two films made just over $22 million each while the more kid-friendly Wild Things managed about $77 million. This doesn’t have the broad-audience appeal of the latter film and seems more along the quirky lines of his first two, thus why I’m predicting a similar $22 million.”
Box Office Results: $25.6 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] It was a tough concept to sell to audiences, but they turned out in steady numbers, making this one of Spike Jonze’s best outings (not if you adjust for inflation, though).

The Past (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. It’s one of the key players in this year’s Best Foreign Language Film race, with a likely nomination coming out of it. A victory, however, is unlikely.”
Oscar Results: Twice isn’t the charm for Farhadi who failed to pick up a second Best ForeigN Language Film nomination. The film had positive, though not superlative reviews, which may have contributed to the sense of “not good enough” that kept it off the Academy’s short list.
Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. For a foreign language film, it should do well; however, like Asghar Farhadi’s prior film, a broad appeal is unlikely to materialize even with excellent notices from critics and Oscars in the bank.”
Box Office Results: $1.3 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] No Oscars. No adoration from critics. Combined, the film fell on the deaf ears of audiences.

December 25, 2013

47 Ronin

Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. The martial arts subgenre has struggled in the U.S. marketplace. Even with a globally popular actor like Keanu Reeves on board, there’s not much indication that this film will be terribly successful. Of course, the fantastical elements could easily make it a modest hit for the genre, but anything more than that seems unlikely.”
Box Office Results: $38.4 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] It scored about on par with other films of the genre and did slightly better than my estimations. In spite of the low total, this isn’t an embarrassing loss.

Justin Bieber’s Believe

Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Concert documentaries haven’t done particularly well in recent years, though Justin Bieber still commands a legion of followers. His last theatrical outing, two years ago, nabbed $73 million. It won’t make that level this year considering the prior film released in February when there was hardly anything else at the theater. Now, Bieber must compete with traditional holiday audiences which aren’t terribly keen on giving trifles their time or money.”
Box Office Results: $6.2 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Beliebers weren’t that interested. Not only did the film not make its predecessor’s bankroll, it made less than 10% of its predecessor, which is a colossal disaster and proof that the genre is not only fading, it’s dead.

Grudge Match

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None. The Academy doesn’t typically love comedy and the trailer makes this look like a film that isn’t even going to approach Oscar consideration.”
Oscar Results: None it was.
Box Office Prediction: $85 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. It’s Rocky versus Raging Bull. That isn’t how it’s being sold, but those of a certain age will immediately come to that realization. Well past their prime, Sylvester Stallone and Robert De Niro are playing that up in a comedy that’s sure to excel in a comedy-light holiday environment.”
Box Office Results: $29.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] After a small handful of successes with films targeting older audiences, the temptation to make anything and everything that appeals to the “geriatric” set is being met with general disinterest by that target audience. My guess is they have seen enough movies in their lifetimes that they don’t want to waste their money on films that are a far cry from the films they loved when they were younger.

The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Some are saying this is going to be a major Oscar contender, but nothing about this remake gets me to thinking that’s possible. There’s a lot of competition this year and critics would have to be bowled over for this film to trump a lot of what’s out there. However, until the reviews come in, it’s impossible to tell just how much Oscar traction the film will have outside of the creative and technical categories.”
Oscar Results: With weak to hostile reviews, the audiences didn’t turn out and no one seemed to care if this film got Oscar consideration or not. Even the interesting visual effects on display in the trailer weren’t favored enough for an Oscar nomination.
Box Office Prediction: $200 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. In spite of his major dud with The Watch, most of Ben Stiller’s box office performances in recent years have been impressive. He typically excels when he’s starring alone with a small, but reliable band of supporting actors of notable repute. That doesn’t mean he’s always going to be successful, but considering the release window for this film and the fantastical elements showcasing Stiller’s more subdued talents, I expect this to be the season’s biggest original hit.”
Box Office Results: $58.2 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Critics didn’t bite. Oscar didn’t bite. No one seemed to care and Ben Stiller has another bomb on his hands.

The Wolf of Wall Street

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. If Scorsese’s been a hit with the box office, he’s done just as well, if not better with the Oscars, capturing his first Oscar for The Departed seven years ago. Other than Shutter Island, Scorsese has earned a Best Picture nomination for each of his films released since 2000. Add to that the sheer bounty of Oscars given to those films and it’s almost guaranteed that his film will be a nominee in several categories, even Best Picture.”
Oscar Results: Bouncing back from a disastrous run through the critics awards (largely thanks to Warner’s sometimes hostile and mostly belated treatment of critics), Scorsese scored a number of nominations. It received five nominations including Best Picture but went home empty-handed, a not-infrequent occurrence for Scorsese.
Box Office Prediction: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. Since 2000, Martin Scorsese has been a guaranteed hit maker. The weakest performer of his fiction films in the last thirteen years was two years ago with Hugo, which still managed $73 million. With Leonardo DiCaprio hot off his hit The Great Gatsby and the premise of the film likely striking a chord with middle America, I think we’re looking at a performance close to, if not surpassing century mark.”
Box Office Results: $116.9 M
Thoughts: [Success] The film didn’t quite appeal to middle America, but that didn’t stop them from showing up in droves to see the debauchery first hand.

August: Osage County (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. Once thought to be unbeatable going into the 2013 Oscar race, several films have emerged that make the film’s potential success diminish. Look for a decent showing at the Oscars with Harvey Weinstein behind it, but I wouldn’t expect too many opportunities for the film to take home Oscars this year.”
Oscar Results: Harvey Weinstein had a terrible year at the Oscars. Other than Philomena, which did decently well, the rest of his year-end fodder failed to catch on. This was one of those films, nabbing only two nominations for stars Meryl Streep and Julia Roberts. It couldn’t even manage an Adapted Screenplay nomination.
Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. With Meryl Streep and Julia Roberts on board, you would think the film had a strong chance at being a hit. However, neither have had much luck in recent years and adaptations of stage plays have been even more dismal performers. Still, the familial subject matter and release window, combined with Oscar consideration, should propel the film to a decent tally.”
Box Office Results: $37.7 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Flop] Critics weren’t impressed and audiences didn’t see much worth dashing out to catch. It had a briefly strong run, but word of mouth didn’t spread and the film ultimately faded fast.

Labor Day (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Poor. Based on the reception of Reitman’s first three films, he was supposed to be a new it-boy for the Oscars. The problem is his fourth film managed to be unimpressive and early word is Labor Day isn’t better. The Oscars, with plenty of other voices to recognize this year won’t even give him the time fo day, not even with Oscar wunderkind Kate Winslet starring.”
Oscar Results: Jason Reitman went from darling of the Oscars to pariah. Two films in a row that have left Academy voters cold. It also didn’t help that the film got a terrible box office roll-out, meaning most voters didn’t get to see it in time.
Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Unlike his contemporary, Alexander Payne, Reitman has never completely connected with audiences giving him two hits out of the four films he’s directed. Unlike Up in the Air and Juno, nothing about Labor Day suggests he’ll do that much business and indications are strong that he’ll more likely do business closer to his last filmed failure Young Adult.”
Box Office Results: $13.4 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] It could have been a romantic drama hit with the right marketing push. However, everything with the film went wrong, including the disappointment of bad reviews.