There are no two bigger months at theaters. While the Summer may provide box office swing, both box office and Oscars dominate the final two months of the year with November likely the biggest of them all. This year, a number of top notch films will compete for audience dollars and critics’ appreciation going into the final weeks of pre-Oscar wrangling. This November features one of the most impressive line-ups Oscar has seen in some time, with many of them strong contenders for one or multiple nominations.

April 4-6, 2014

Captain America: Winter Soldier

Premise: From IMDb: “Steve Rogers struggles to embrace his role in the modern world and battles a new threat from old history: the Soviet agent known as the Winter Soldier.”
Box Office Prospects: $250 M
Expectations: Strong. Captain America is one of the weaker performing subsets of the Avengers universe, but that may have more to do with a lack of familiarity. It came close to the first Thor and this time, I think it should pass the second Thor without much trouble.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. The two Marvel franchises that have gotten Oscar attention are Thor and Iron Man. Captian America, in spite of its period designs and strong visual effects was never nominated for the Oscars. That makes it less likely this film will, but it being the year’s only Marvel entry might help.

Under the Skin (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “An alien seductress preys upon hitchhikers in Scotland.”
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Expectations: Weak. Scarlett Johansson has two projects opening on the same weekend. Her indie effort is unlikely to spark much attention at the specialty box office, not because it’s not an interesting premise, but because the trailer doesn’t really tell you much about the film and may be too quirky for a lot of indie attendees.
Oscar Prospects: Doubtful. Johansson is sure to generate a tiny amount of buzz for her portrayal, but don’t look for her to emerge as a real contender.

April 11-13, 2014

Draft Day

Premise: From IMDb: “The General Manager of the Cleveland Browns struggles to acquire the number one draft pick for his team.”
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Kevin Costner has been trying hard to make a box office name for himself, but has struggled in his prior two outings. That said, sports dramas tend to do consistent business with audiences. The film, however, is action-lite and may not seem that exciting to prospective viewers. It could be a hit like Jerry Maguire was, though that film had an added romantic subplot that doesn’t seem to be present in this outing. However, that’s the closest comparative to this as that dealt with the behind-the-scenes environment of the sports world and not the actual sport itself.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Oculus

Premise: From IMDb: “A woman tries to exonerate her brother, who was convicted of murder, by proving that the crime was committed by a supernatural phenomenon.”
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: Weak. For horror films, a great premise can take you a long way. A weak or convoluted premise can keep audiences away. So far, this doesn’t have much promise of delivering a broad audience.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Rio 2

Premise: From IMDb: “It’s a jungle out there for Blu, Jewel and their three kids in RIO 2, after they’re hurtled from that magical city to the wilds of the Amazon. As Blu tries to fit in, he goes beak-to-beak with the vengeful Nigel, and meets the most fearsome adversary of all – his father-in-law.”
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Expectations: Good. Its predecessor did under $150 million in business, so the sequel should surpass it. With few children’s films in the area, it could do better than expected. However, the Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs sequel didn’t improve on its predecessor, which was a reasonably popular film, like Rio was.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. The first film wasn’t Oscar nominated for Best Animated Feature and unless this is an unqualified success, both critically and financially, I cannot seee the film triumphing over likely more “important” features this year.

St. Vincent de Van Nuys

Premise: From IMDb: “A young boy whose parents just divorced finds an unlikely friend and mentor in the misanthropic, bawdy, hedonistic, war veteran who lives next door.”
Box Office Prospects: $55 M
Expectations: Uncertain. On the one hand, you have Melissa McCarthy who is wildly popular right now. On the other hand, you have Bill Murray who hasn’t had a hit in nearly two decades and those that were within that timeframe weren’t hits because of his presence. This seems to be a film in the style of About Schmidt, so it could still do reasonably well.
Oscar Prospects: None.

April 18, 2014

Bears

Premise: From IMDb: “A look at the life of bears living in Alaska’s coastal mountains and shores.”
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Expectations: Weak. The DisneyNature docs haven’t been a box office force. They’ve been consistent, but not exceptional.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. DisneyNature just can’t make inroads at the Oscars. That may largely be the fault of the current Documentary branch, which seems to favor more politically challenging documentaries that tackle important topics. As much as cute animals are important, especially to environmentally-conscious Hollywood, they just aren’t significant enough for Oscar consideration.

A Haunted House 2

Premise: From IMDb: “Having exorcised the demons of his ex, Malcolm is starting fresh with his new girlfriend and her two children. After moving into their dream home, however, Malcolm is once again plagued by bizarre paranormal events.”
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Expectations: Good. The first film did well tapping into the consistent horror spoof fanbase. The sequel shouldn’t have trouble building on that reputation and increasing its numbers, but the franchise will eventually collapse like the Scary Movies did. Just not this time out.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Heaven Is for Real

Premise: From IMDb: “A small-town father who must find the courage and conviction to share his son’s extraordinary, life-changing experience with the world.”
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Expectations: Uncertain. The title makes one think that this is one of those Christians-only films extolling the virtues of God. However, this appears to be a singularly Hollywood production. That said, it could still appeal to that demo and pull in a few other fans of the novel as well. Whether that means more than a middling success or not is uncertain.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Transcendence

Premise: From IMDb: “A terminally ill scientist downloads his mind into a computer. This grants him power beyond his wildest dreams, and soon he becomes unstoppable.”
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Expectations: Decent. The premise is unique enough that it could position itself for a nice return, but sci-fi is often a dicey proposition at the box office. Having Johnny Depp star may help with that, but releasing in April probably won’t.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. If it’s any good, there might be some buzz for it, especially Depp’s performance or the screenplay, but I wouldn’t bet anything on that distant possibility.

April 25, 2014

Brick Mansions

Premise: From IMDb: “An undercover cop tries to take down a ruthless crime lord with access to a neutron bomb by infiltrating his gang.”
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Expectations: Weak. Releasing wide may give it a boost that it wouldn’t have had at the specialty box office, but producers are likely building the film’s hopes too much on the popularity of source film District B13. Paul Walker’s passing might boost the curiousity factor, but I’m not sure it can get past its quasi-futuristic setting, a typical box office stumbling block. There isn’t a lot of precedent out there for films featuring Parkour in any meaningful way, so it could do well based on an action-heavy trailer or audiences may just not care enough to step out of their comfort zone.
Oscar Prospects: None.

The Other Woman

Premise: From IMDb: “After realizing she is not her boyfriend’s primary lover, a woman teams up with his wife and plots mutual revenge.”
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Expectations: Good. While there have been other romantic comedies at the box office this year, this film seems to be a much bigger potential box office hit than those others. Cameron Diaz has a certain popularity that may enable the film to launch high. Pair that with a genuinely funny trailer and it could be one of the few stand-outs of April.
Oscar Prospects: None.

The Quiet Ones

Premise: From IMDb: “A University physics professor assembles a team to help create a poltergeist.”
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Another questionable horror prospect, this one trying to create a new premise out of an aging one. Attempting to create a poltergeist instead of battling one might give the film a boost, but the trailers are going to be downright chilling to tackle something so untested in the marketplace.
Oscar Prospects: None.