For our fifth Rundown article, we look at the supporting women. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Supporting Actress as well as general commentary about the race. Tomorrow, we’ll cover the men.

Best Supporting Actress

Winner Predictions

• Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine
• Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle
• Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave (WL O) (PP O) (TB O)
• Julia Roberts – August: Osage County
• June Squibb – Nebraska

Runner-Up Predictions

• Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle (WL O) (PP R) [New] (TB O)

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Wesley Lovell: The Golden Globes would have you believe that this race comes down to Lupita Nyong’o versus Jennifer Lawrence. Yet, when you look at all the other precursors, especially the Screen Actors Guild, the race looks to be over with Nyong’o far in the lead. It’s possible American Hustle will find its lone chance to pick up an Oscar in the upper categories here, but Nyong’o has delivered some fantastic speeches, which may win over some voters and others may balk at giving Lawrence her second Oscar so soon after her first (she would be the youngest two-time Oscar winner in history if she won). A lot can happen between now and Oscar night, but right now, Nyong’o is the most likely victor.
Peter J. Patrick: Despite early predictions that 12 Years a Slave would take three acting Oscars, it has come down to Nyong’o as its best shot at an acting Oscar. The newcomer will win for her elegance and charm and as a representative of all the Patseys (her character) in history who can’t speak for themselves. Jennifer Lawrence would seem to be her closest competition for American Hustle. The popular star would be a bigger threat if she hadn’t won in the lead category last year. June Squibb could pose an upset for her comic turn in Nebraska, but I think for an 84-year-old actress no one seems to have heard of before, the nomination will prove to be the reward. Neither Julia Roberts nor Sally Hawkins seem to have much traction. Roberts because of August: Osage County‘s largely negative reviews and Hawkins because all the glory for Blue Jasmine is going to Cate Blanchett.
Tripp Burton: Lupita Nyong’o has the SAG Award, Jennifer Lawrence has the Golden Globe, and that says that this should be a fight to the finish (at least until the BAFTA clarifies things a little bit). But Jennifer Lawrence won last year, and is probably a little too young for a second win, while Lupita Nyong’o is the best chance for 12 Years a Slave to be awarded at this point. Look for the newcomer to triumph here.

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