Precursor: 27th USC Scripter Nominations (2013)

Typically, it’s the USC Scripter nominations rather than the Writers Guild of America that become the prediction starting point for the Adapted Screenplay category. That’s because the USC doesn’t declare a field of potential nominees ineligible simply because they aren’t working a guild contract. As such, they can be a pretty decent bellwether for the Oscar nominations and especially the winners. This year, however, three assured contenders for the Oscar nomination are absent from this list (August: Osage County, Before Midnight and The Wolf of Wall Street). While Before Midnight makes sense as it was adapted from a previous film, not from a literary source and USC prides itself on its literary associations, The Wolf of Wall Street is a bit more surprising and August, adapted from a play, may have suffered additional stumbling blocks.

Philomena and 12 Years a Slave are also strong contenders, but Captain Phillips is the only film to show up on both lists meaning it could be a nominee. The Spectacular Now was being discussed at one point, but its mentions have largely disappeared while What Maisie Knew was never a contender and is a rather bizarre selection for this group. So, don’t expect more than two or three nods to carry over from here this year. (Comments posted 1/12/14)