August 2, 2013

2 Guns

Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unknown. The two stars have been box office draws in the past, but the concept isn’t terribly fresh or interesting which could cause it to fall on the dud side. And releasing in August is never promising.”
Box Office Results: $75.6 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] It proves that you don’t have to be fresh to sell tickets and these two stars sold tickets. While it didn’t cross the $100 million milestone, it still exceeded expectations for an August release.

The Smurfs 2

Box Office Prediction: $120 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. The first film was a surprise hit and it’s likely the follow-up will do decent business. However, partly-animated films are still a tough sell and a sequel will be equally hard-pressed to match its predecessor’s success. I’m leaning towards decent, but not spectacular sub-original numbers, but it could do quite a bit better than that.”
Box Office Results: $71.0 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] After the tremendous success of its predecessor, a sequel seemed like a good idea. Then it got dumped into August where family films don’t typically perform well. Far underperforming and failing to top the weekend’s other new release, it looks like a safe bet that The Smurfs 3 may not make it to the cineplex.

August 9, 2013

Elysium

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “A lot depends on how this compares to director Neill Blomkamp’s directorial debut, which earned a well deserved Best Picture nomination. If the critics like the film as well or better, it could be a decent contender bringing both Matt Damon and Jodie Foster back to the Oscars, but it would have to be a hugely well regarded film for that to happen. Regardless, I’m guessing it will be a key player in the creative and tech categories.”
Oscar Results: The film didn’t quite live up to expectations, but it did better than some expected at the box office. Still, any above the line category discussion is out of the question, though the film could still appear in several creative categories, but I would bet only Best Visual Effects has any real potential.
Box Office Prediction: $140 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. This may be one of the most anticipated titles in June. With a headliner like Matt Damon and reasonably popular Jodie Foster on board, this sci-fi feature could easily surpass the total of its director’s prior film District 9.”
Box Office Results: $93.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] It isn’t the blockbuster I had predicted, nor is it the failure others had predicted. Still, it’s not far off Blomkamp’s prior effort, though the budget was quite a bit higher this time around. We’ll call it a success for surpassing the weak response from critics.

Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters

Box Office Prediction: $70 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unknown. The first film was a modest hit making about $88 million in the U.S. and another $137 million overseas. It’s surprising with those weaker numbers that the film was greenlit for a sequel when it did only slightly better numbers than The Golden Compass. Critics weren’t in love with the film either, but it must have done very well on home video to encourage a sequel. Releasing against a number of other high profile films isn’t a good thing, but it could surprise again, though I’m thinking even my prediction will be a bit high.”
Box Office Results: $68.4 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Minor Success] It may not have matched its predecessor, but even its predecessor wasn’t a huge box office hit in the U.S. Still, the tally here is about what was expected and if the first film could get a sequel on totals slightly north of this performance, I don’t see why the third film cannot be greenlighted.

Planes

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “If critics reject the film, Disney has other films to fall back on, but it could still be a long-shot player for an Oscar nomination for Best Animated Feature, though I highly doubt it.”
Oscar Results: It was a box office succes, not on the level of Pixar, but still noteworthy enough to merit a sequel. However, the film’s Oscar chances are almost non-existent simply because critics mostly trashed it.
Box Office Prediction: $150 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. I’m guessing that Disney is expectin Cars-like numbers from this marketing-demanded sequel. Yet, planes aren’t as appealing to youngsters as cars are and I’m guessing the August release shows that Disney isn’t particularly certain their film will do great business. I’m estimating a number quite a bit under Cars 2, which was just over $50 million under the original. Curiosity will bring some auds to the theater, but if it isn’t better than Cars 2, then Disney may have to say goodbye to their cash cow.”
Box Office Results: $90.3 M
Thoughts: [Success] Pixar can sell movies to mass audiences like no other studio. Disney has problems with its wares. While it would have been expected to bounce off the success of the Cars films which inspired it, the critics were not pleased and as a result, no one thought it was likely to do as well as it did.

We’re the Millers

Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. This film has disaster written all over it. Advertising has thus far been minimal and neither Jason Sudeikis or Jennifer Aniston have had much success selling films on their own names. I’m guessing it’s a box office dud, especially when released agains three other film that have precedents to support strong business..”
Box Office Results: $150.4 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] The sleeper hit of the Summer comes in the form of Jennifer Aniston. This makes the second Summer comedy featuring Aniston to surprise prognosticators. Audiences just loved the film and kept it going long after its fellow box office competitors fell by the wayside. The shocking part is that it was the top film released in August when so many others could have held that mantle.

August 16, 2013

Jobs

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Before it got pushed back, there was some light chatter of a nomination for Ashton Kutcher. Ignore that conversation and file this one as a no-go…unless it’s actually good. That will change everything. But I wouldn’t hold my breath.”
Oscar Results: Critics hated it. Audiences rejected it. Other than the brief mention months ago that it might be a left-field contender, there’s been no chatter about Kutcher even if he was a dead ringer for Steve Jobs. This one does not compute.
Box Office Prediction: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. Is anyone really interested in a movie about Steve Jobs. This is the kind of project that should likely have found a home on basic cable, not the big screen. Apple may be a highly regarded tech product, but Jobs’ influence can only take things so far. Since it has already been postponed once and now finds itself residing in the doldrums of August, I’d say it’s a stinker and will be treated by filmgoers as such.”
Box Office Results: $16.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] While it wasn’t the success the studio execs that greenlighted it expected, it still met my personal expectations, which has to account for something. Doesn’t it? Nope.

Kick-Ass 2

Box Office Prediction: $55 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Its predecessor made a mere $48 million three years ago. Apparently it has a huge fan following or there wouldn’t even be a sequel. Ignore all the faked flack the film is getting from supporting actor Jim Carrey. His disingenuous railing against the film’s violence (he signed on to appear in a sequel for a film recognized for its brutal and visual violence) is merely meant to flog support from the public, but while I think it may do slightly better than its predecessor, I don’t expect much more. It could even end up a big failure.”
Box Office Results: $28.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] What good is a sequel if it fails to live up to its predecessor’s expectations. That’s the question greeting the release of Kick-Ass 2. The first film wasn’t an qualified blockbustered, but it performed well enough. The sequel was thought to be a good idea to combine the fans of the film with the fans on home video and turn it into a blockbuster. It didn’t work. Not only did it not draw the combined groups, it didn’t draw much more than half of the original audience total.

Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “This is The Weinstein Company tentpole for the year. They will play up the race-relations elements almost to the point of nausea and with added Oscar-pushing power house Oprah Winfrey starring even if the film isn’t any good, it will still likely cart off a boatload of nominations and like Crash, it might even parlay that into an undeserved win. This whole point is moot if it’s actually a good film, which will make it the early frontrunner without much effort.”
Oscar Results: Harvey Weinstein is botching the Oscar contest this year. He filled his plate too full and hasn’t been able to find a single film to rally his impressive capabilities behind. Apart from being a box office success, the film should have done far better with the precursors, at least the mainstream ones like the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild and the Producers Guild of America, all of which gave the film short shrift (the Globes gave it some love, but probably not enough). While it could still be a contender, its chances are dwindling.
Box Office Prediction: $120 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unknown. Even Tyler Perry can’t guarantee good turnout for the core demographic for this type of film. However, this is being flogged heavily by The Weinstein Company who will demand it become a Summer sleeper hit. And since it’s also going to be an Oscar contender whether it’s any good or not, I’d say it does decent busines probably failing to meet popular novel-turned-movie The Help-type numbers, but still doing reasonably well.”
Box Office Results: $116.1 M
Thoughts: [Success] Films that explore the black experience in America have been doing very well at the box office this year. 42 and Fruitvale Station each exceeded expectations, so when The Butler arrived, it’s no surprise that it did well, and it did just about as well as I expected. If it gets Oscar nominations and a re-release, it could slightly increase this tally.

Paranoria

Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. It has a superb cast, but is little more than a standard thriller. That hasn’t stopped similar films from becoming a success, especially with the likes of Harrison Ford and Gary Oldman in tow; however, it just looks predictable and without suspense, a thriller loses much of its appeal.”
Box Office Results: $7.4 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] You don’t have a flop with this cast unless A) the film isn’t very good to begin with or B) the film is poorly marketed. When you combine both, you end up with a colossal flop that tarnishes the box office reputations of its stars. Though, when you look at Harrison Ford’s recent efforts, only 42 managed anything in terms of box office popularity and he wasn’t the key star.

August 23, 2013

The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones

Box Office Prediction: $70 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unknown. Obviously, it’s expected that this will become the new Twilight or The Hunger Games, but is the book series on which the film is based as popular as those other two films? Beautiful Creatures didn’t become a new tween powerhouse and I’m not sure this one will either.”
Box Office Results: $31.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The year of the tween films hoping to become the heir to the Twilight throne continued to generate flops when the third film trying for box office popularity failed to ignite imaginations of tweens. A sequel was in the works for this one already, but has been shelved waiting for home video returns to determine whether it is warranted.

The World’s End

Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Shaun of the Dead, Hot Fuzz and Paul remain popular with a very narrow niche of the public who will turn out, but not in droves for this film. And with another end-of-the-world comedy already in release, I don’t expect this one to surprise.”
Box Office Results: $26.0 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] No surprises, just met-expectations. The Cornetto Trilogy went out with a “meh” as the third film took home little more than anticipated at the box office.

You’re Next

Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unknown. The plot is a bit confused and the marketing has been either non-existent or inconclusive leading me to suspect that this one will come and go and no one will blink. It doesn’t fit into any well recognized subgenres, so I don’t know quite how to categorize it and if I can’t, I imagine others won’t be able to either.”
Box Office Results: $18.5 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] There’s one thing that can be said, this film was not the next big horror hit. After a series of strong performers early in the year, the genre hit a speed bump and generated one disappointment after another with this one meeting my expectations, which weren’t too high to begin with.

August 30, 2013

Closed Circuit

Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unknown. Eric Bana and Rebecca Hall aren’t well known as box office magnets and the premise is unspectacular. Pair this with minimal advertising and a month filled with meek holdover potential and I doubt this one gets past its fellow films on release day.”
Box Office Results: $5.8 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Neither Bana or Hall is a box office name, so a low gross was expected, but no one seemed the least bit interest in this film, which may have resulted in one of the worst wide-release performances of the year.

Getaway

Box Office Prediction: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unknown. With all the other films releasing this month, it’s hard to categorize this one. It could be a light sleeper or it could be a missed opportunity. Action films and thrillers are abundant, so genre confusion and disinterest won’t help it get very far.”
Box Office Results: $10.5 M
Thoughts: [Flop] It looked like some kind of cross between Fast & Furious and Taken without any of the exciting parts. It was a dud, but not the biggest of the year.

One Direction: This Is Us

Box Office Prediction: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Katy Perry is one of the biggest names in music and her concert film barely managed to pass $25 million. The Jonas Brothers made less. Hannah Montana who was incredibly popular and Justin Bieber similarly had strong runs, but One Direction ain’t those two artists. I see it doing better than Katy Perry, but not by much.”
Box Office Results: $28.9 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Boy bands and young male artists are apparently more popular than seasoned artists like Katy Perry. The British band topped Perry’s documentary total, but not by a lot. The trend of turning every popular artist into a marquee idol may be fading fast.

Satanic (a.k.a. Random)

Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. It took a great deal of effort just to find information about this film to do this profile. That’s not a positive sign with so little time left to build up interest in seeing the film.”
Box Office Results: NEVER RELEASED
Thoughts: [Flop] The film never got released. It never got any advertisement and has virtually vanished from existence. Is the film ever going to show up? I’m beginning to think it won’t.