There are three or four months every year that are considered dumping grounds for movies no one thinks will amount to much and definitely wouldn’t against strong competition. January and February are two of them, so look for no huge hits out of this list, but a few strong performances will still occur.

February 7, 2014

The Lego Movie

Premise: From IMDb: “An ordinary LEGO minifigure, mistakenly thought to be the extraordinary MasterBuilder, is recruited to join a quest to stop an evil LEGO tyrant from gluing the universe together.”
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Expectations: Strong. The Lego animation properties that have proliferated the video gaming world have proven so popular the company thinks it can make a mint at the box office. The film’s few trailers haven’t been that exciting, but it could still do quite well with little family competition at this time of year.
Oscar Prospects: It could be nominated for Best Animated Feature, but opening so early in the year might harm its chances.

The Monuments Men

Premise: From IMDb: “An unlikely World War II platoon are tasked to rescue art masterpieces from Nazi thieves and return them to their owners.”
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Expectations: Uncertain. It was pushed back to focus on a box office roll-out, but the trailers haven’t really given an indication that the film will be hugely successful. If it finds an audience, it could be.
Oscar Prospects: It was thought to be one of the biggest contenders of last year, but was pushed into early 2014 presumably to avoid competition and go for a box office push instead of an Oscar push. Still, if it isn’t a bad movie, it could still end up a consideration for the Oscars next year, but that move didn’t help Gangster Squad from last year.

February 14, 2014

About Last Night

Premise: From IMDb: “New love for two couples as they journey from the bar to the bedroom and are eventually put to the test in the real world.”
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: Good. I saw this trailer before American Hustle on Christmas day. It was a packed auditorium filled mostly with white audiences. Although the film is decidedly targeted at black audiences, there was a lot of laughter for the trailer, which suggests the film could have strong cross-over appeal and might break the traditional mold for this type of film. Of course, I could have been with an uncharacteristically open audience and the film has no cross-over appeal or it could be that people laugh but still wouldn’t make a night at the movies for it. We shall see.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Endless Love

Premise: From IMDb: “The story of a privileged girl and a charismatic boy whose instant desire sparks a love affair made only more reckless by parents trying to keep them apart.”
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Poor. Did anyone really need a remake of a film that earned much derision back when it was released? Not really. As recent romantic remakes prove, it’s not a genre that’s easy to mine for box office success and although it’s intended to capitalize on the Valentine’s Day holiday, there are a lot of films trying and this looks to be the third most likely to succeed of the three. If it’s a success, though, we may have to suffer through countless banal remakes of 80’s movies that most people have forgotten.
Oscar Prospects: None.

RoboCop

Premise: From IMDb: “In 2028 Detroit, when Alex Murphy (Joel Kinnaman) – a loving husband, father and good cop – is critically injured in the line of duty, the multinational conglomerate OmniCorp sees their chance for a part-man, part-robot police officer.”
Box Office Prospects: $90 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Speaking of remakes no one asked for. The studio has front-loaded this film with major genre names like Michael Keaton and Samuel L. Jackson, so it’s possible the film could be hugely popular in spite of itself, but this is another genre that has struggled to find success with remakes.
Oscar Prospects: It might be nominated in the tech categories (Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects), but I seriously doubt it.

Vampire Academy

Premise: From IMDb: “Rose Hathaway is a Dhampir, half human/vampire, guardians of the Moroi, peaceful, mortal vampires living discretely within our world. Her legacy is to protect the Moroi from bloodthirsty, immortal Vampires, the Strigoi. This is her story.”
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Expectations: Poor. Another example of studios trying to elicit a hit out of Young Adult properties. This mystical seriocomedy tackles vampires much like Twilight did, but without the must-see qualities. If they don’t revise the trailer, my prediction above could be far above what the film ultimately takes in. Against all the other competition on this weekend, I’d hazard to guess that the film might not even top $10 million.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Winter’s Tale

Premise: From IMDb: “A burglar falls for an heiress as she dies in his arms. When he learns that he has the gift of reincarnation, he sets out to save her.”
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Expectations: Good. With Russell Crowe and Colin Farrell, it’s likely this film will perform better at the Valentine’s Day box office than anything else releasing. It’s period portion mixing with a modern love affair should bolster interest and may help float it to the top of the heap. Of course, this could be the bomb of the weekend and Endless Love surpass it. At this point, i don’t think that’s going to happen, but it could.
Oscar Prospects: None.

February 21, 2014

3 Days to Kill

Premise: From IMDb: “A dying Secret Service Agent trying to reconnect with his estranged daughter is offered an experimental drug that could save his life in exchange for one last assignment.”
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Weak. Kevin Costner was never an action star, so this sudden change of directions might turn out to be like Liam Neeson’s sudden emergence as the most popular action star working today. Still, everything I’ve seen on the film so far makes it look like a Jason Statham movie without the Statham. Wether or not it exceeds expectations depends on the studio executing a much better marketing effor than so far seen and Pompeii being its own disaster of a release this weekend.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Pompeii

Premise: From IMDb: “A slave turned gladiator finds himself in a race against time to save his true love, who has been betrothed to a corrupt Roman Senator. As Mount Vesuvius erupts, he must fight to save his beloved as Pompeii crumbles around him.”
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: Uncertain. While I’m sure it will be mildly popular, it also faces a similar fate to The Legend of Hercules. It’s a film that’s heavily reliant on visual effects and hopes to tell a love story. That the film throws in a ridiculously fictitious love story into a disaster that literally killed people in their sleep because they didn’t realize it was coming, suggests that the ridiculousness will utlimately lead to failure at the box office. That is if anyone actually knows anything about the disaster.
Oscar Prospects: Another tech-only contender, but ultimately I think Visual Effects is its best and only option and even that seems like a long shot.

The Wind Rises

Premise: From IMDb: “A look at the life of Jiro Horikoshi, the man who designed Japanese fighter planes during World War II.”
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Expectations: Weak. Unless Disney/Touchstone launches a massiave advertising blitz, the film is likely to perform just as well as any of Miyazaki’s other American releases. His most popular film didn’t eclipse $15 million at the box office and that film was largely dismissed as inferior (Ponyo). Even adjusted for inflation, his most famous films (Spirited Away and Princess Mononoke) didn’t perform above $15 million. I don’t have much hope for Miyazaki’s last film, but a superb marketing campaign might help.
Oscar Prospects: This film is eligible for the 2013 Oscars, so won’t be participating in this coming year’s prizes. Having said that, it’s a key contender for Best Animated Feature, but the box office dominance of Frozen will ultimately trump it.

February 28, 2014

Non-Stop

Premise: From IMDb: “An air marshall must spring into action aboard an international flight.”
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Expectations: Decent. Apart from his Taken films, Liam Neeson is still a modest box office star, but it’s no doubt he has quite a bit of pull. This film looks more in line with his Taken wheelhouse than his last few outings, so it’s very likely, it will tkae off, especially considering there’s no other competition. I could also be entirely overestimating its potential. The last Neeson film didn’t do overwhelmingly great box office and audiences may only respond to the Taken films, not anything else he does. Time will tell, but I’m leaning towards success at this juncture.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Son of God

Premise: From IMDb: “The life story of Jesus is told from his humble birth through his teachings, crucifixion and ultimate resurrection.”
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Expectations: Uncertain. This is one of those situations where it’s impossible to know how audiences will become interested in the film. The Passion of the Christ this film isn’t, but it tackles a broader history of the life of Jesus than Mel Gibson’s film did. However, it’s unlikely to be as violent, which might not make it as sensational a film as Passion was. Still, it’s likely Church Groups will turn this into an Easter phenomenon, but how big will it be? That’s not certain. Apart from Gibson’s film, the next highest grossing Christian-themed film is The Nativity Story with less than $40 million receipts. Several films are in the mid-$30 million range, so I’d normally expect this film to finish around there, but something makes me think that there’s going to be a bigger push to make this a huge event, just like they tried to turn Passion into an annual go-to film for Christians. That didn’t work. I’m not sure this will, but I’m hedging my bets to the high end.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Welcome to Yesterday

Premise: From IMDb: “A group of teens discover secret plans of a time machine, and construct one. However, things start to get out of control.”
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Expectations: Weak. There’s ben almost no advertising for the film so far and although teen-targeted sci-fi/action films have done decently well in recent years, apart from a few exceptions, they’ve all generally been modest bombs. I don’t see this one really catching fire, but I could be surprised.
Oscar Prospects: None.