May 3-5, 2013

Iron Man 3

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Strong. The first film earned two Oscar nominations. The second picked up one. While that doesn’t give the film a lot of hope, it’s sure to be a contender in Best Sound Mixing, Best Sound Editing and Best Visual Effects, the latter seemingly like its best shot at the Oscar. The film could even make an appearing in Best Makeup thanks to its work on Ben Kingsley as The Mandarin.”
Oscar Results: The Visual Effects and Sound categories are sure to be heavily contended this year, which could edge out the year’s biggest box office feature. Still, never count out the sole member of the individual Avengers franchise that’s had any measure of Oscar success.
Box Office Prediction: $350 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Strong. The first two films both eclipsed $315 at the box office, so I see little reason that the sequel wouldn’t equal that number and considering it’s a bit darker, has 3D and is coming off the uber-successful The Avengers, I’m predicting a modest uptick from the prior installments.”
Box Office Results: $409 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] With help from the hugely successful The Avengers film, Iron Man soared at the box office. Employing a stronger plot than its predecessor likely helped it keep its legs.

The Iceman (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Decent. Before his surprise Oscar nomination for Revolutionary Road five years ago over his more name-recognizable co-stars (Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet), Michael Shannon has been getting a lot of buzz around his performances. He was thought to be in the race for Best Actor for Take Shelter two years ago and he’ll undoubtedly be on the shortlist again this year. This more challenging and slightly more accessible story might give him his best shot at a second nomination, but he’ll need a fairly heavy push to get going.”
Oscar Results: Shannon hasn’t had a lot of success lately and with such a strong slate of potential Best Actor contenders, it’s very likely he will be ignored again.
Box Office Prediction: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unknown. Depending on how the film is marketed, I could see this becoming a decent hit with the general public, but it’s starting out in limited release and even if critics support it, it will take a bang-up campaign to get it out there further.”
Box Office Results: $1.9 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] An indie crime drama should have done better than this, though as a limited release feature, a low total isn’t unexpected.

What Maisie Knew (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. Another film that had small buzz last year for one of its actors, young actress Onata Aprile as the title character, didn’t get much traction and was pushed into 2013. Like another film I’ll discuss later in this post, getting shunted to another year doesn’t always help support an Oscar campaign and even having Julianne Moore on the bill isn’t likely to give this one much hope.”
Oscar Results: The film has gained almost no traction with the Oscars and looks to be headed towards the ignore column.
Box Office Prediction: $3 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unknown. This is a film that needs word of mouth badly to overperform. However, looking at the make up of the cast and the festival-borne nature of the whole thing, I doubt it will be successful outside of the specialty box office.”
Box Office Results: $1.1 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] All things considered, this isn’t a bad total for an indie with no great marketing effort, but it’s still a bit disappointing compared to the hype it could have had.

May 10-12, 2013

The Great Gatsby

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Strong. The excesses of Baz Luhrmann haven’t kept him away from the Oscars. Even his critically-maligned Australia snagged his wife a Best Costume Design nomination. That category and Best Production Design seem like locks to me, Best Visual Effects, Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing also have slim-to-decent chances. The big question is whether critics will revile the 3D version of a literary classic or if his many naysayers will support this film like they did Moulin Rouge. Best Picture and other major categories have to be considered possible depending on how critics and audiences react.”
Oscar Results: The film wasn’t the hit with critics that we might have expected last year when it was going to release in prime Oscar contending space and we now know why. Yet, the costuming and production design should still be solid contenders, especially considering how much the Academy loves Catherine Martin.
Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. Even Baz Luhrmann’s least potent box office film after Moulin Rouge came close to $50 million, so I don’t see a reason not to expect at least that. However, with the huge advertising push and the star turn of Leonardo DiCaprio, I can imagine a larger number of curiosity-seekers will make their way to the cineplex. After all, The Great Gatsby in 3D seems like a strange enough decision to get people interested.”
Box Office Results: $144.8 M
Thoughts: [Success] Even adjusted for ticket price inflation, this is easily Luhrmann’s top grossing film ever owing a lot to the presence of Leonardo DiCaprio. It may no longer be an major Oscar contender, but there’s little doubt that Luhrmann had a hit.

Peeples

Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Mediocre. Tyler Perry’s a nice box office draw for his low-budget films, but he isn’t directing this one, which leads me to believe it will underperform most of his other films.”
Box Office Results: $9.2 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] I expected it to underperform Tyler Perry-directed films, but not to flop this badly. There are no metrics to suggest that this wasn’t a dismal failure.

May 17-19, 2013

Star Trek: Into Darkness

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Solid. The first J.J. Abrams outing managed a franchise best four Oscar nominations, taking home the series’ first Oscar for Best Makeup. Whether that will happen again remains to be seen (since there doesn’t appaer to be a lot of makeup work at play in the trailers we’ve seen), but pencil it in for Best Sound Mixing, Best Sound Editing and Best Visual Effects if nothing else.”
Oscar Results: There’s a strong presence in the year-end tech categories and it’s possible that Abrams’ film could be ignored for loftier and more acclaimed films…or at least showier ones.
Box Office Prediction: $225 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. The first film in the rebooted franchise earned more than $250 million with seemingly little issue. Much of that was from Trek fans who turned out in droves opening weekened. While not all of them were disappointed, enough were that the film may have some issues getting them all back to the theaters. Of course, the franchise also picked up significantly more fans than it lost, so it could overperform its predecessor.”
Box Office Results: $228.8 M
Thoughts: [Success] This tally is nothing to sneeze at, but it has to be considered a bit of a disappointment compared to the $257 million its predecessor made (adjusted to $282 million for inflation). That’s not to say these numbers aren’t great, but backlash against Abrams’ recycling of legendary Trek villain Khan may have had something to do with its step down at the box office.

Frances Ha (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. Last year, there was minor talk of an Oscar nomination for star Greta Gerwig. Since the film was pushed into 2013, I’m not sure it will have what it takes. A strong push by critics could help, but I don’t think that will materialize.”
Oscar Results: Noah Baumbach may have to keep trying to get Oscars for his features as the film doesn’t seem to have made a lasting impression. Of course, the solid box office performance could keep it in the conversation, but Best Actress is heavily competitive this year, which means it probably won’t end well for the film.
Box Office Prediction: $2 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. A black-and-white indie serio-comedy? I cannot see this movie succeeding anywhere other than in art house theaters”
Box Office Results: $4.1 M
Thoughts: [Success] Baumbach seems to have found a sweet spot at the box office. After the $7 million triumph of his The Squid and the Whale, the $2 million poor performance of Margot at the Wedding suggested he might have been a one-trick pony at the specialty box office. However, this marks his second $4 million-plus tally, showing critics that he’s still got a following.

Stories We Tell (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Modest. Sarah Polley had a spectacular feature debut a few years ago with Away from Her, but her second feature didn’t gain much traction. This time, she’s tackling an unusual style of documentary filmmaking, which will test the openness of the Academy’s Documentary Branch.”
Oscar Results: Even three/four months after it opened, the film is still mentioned by critics as one of the year’s most fascinating documentaries. That could bolster its chances, but getting past the notoriously picky documentary nominating committee will be te hard part.
Box Office Prediction: $0.5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Documentaries have a tough time at the box office and even some of the great ones struggle to amass small fortunes. I’m perhaps being a bit pessimistic on this one, but unless critics stand up and cheer and word of mouth builds, I can’t predict it doing that well.”
Box Office Results: $1.6 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Success] Documentaries don’t typically do well at the box office, especially not ones without huge political statements or major awards already in tow. This is a solid, if not greatly impressive tally for a documentary that doesn’t have a major marketing component.

May 24-26, 2013

Epic

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. Any animated film that comes out will go on the short list, but by the looks of this film, I don’t envision a Best Animated Feature slate where it’s on the final ballot.”
Oscar Results: It was enough of a success that it could still be an Oscar contender, but critics were lukewarm. Still, in this landscape of animated disappointments, that weak, but still positive, performance could work in its favor.
Box Office Prediction: $110 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Average. It’s animated, so it has to do decently well. It’s the only animated film on the immediate horizon, so I can imagine it doing much better than I’m predicting, but the trailer just doens’t look that original and without a heavy parental presence, box office numbers will be suppressed a bit.”
Box Office Results: $107.5 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] It performed exactly at expectations. It sits firmly in the realm of standard animated performance at the box office for films NOT associated with DreamWorks or Disney/Pixar.

Fast & Furious 6

Box Office Prediction: $180 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Strong. The fifth film in the franchise was its best performer, leading to an inevitable sequel and a surprising number of them so far. The franchise only failed to pass $120 million once and that was when most of the cast was removed from the third film. Most of the key players are back and more have been added, so we’ll see if the series can continue its epic pace. I don’t think it will hit the $209 million high of its predecessor, but I think it should easily beat out the other four features.”
Box Office Results: $238.7 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] I don’t imagine anyone expected the sixth film to perform as spectacularly well as this one. A $238 million total for a franchise that’s six films deep shows amazing growth potential. Even adjusted for inflation, this is the best the series has performed and marks the second film in a row to best its predecessors overall.

The Hangover, Part III

Box Office Prediction: $225 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Solid. Diminishing returns isn’t putting much of a dent in this series’ numbers, the second film still surpassing the $250 million mark. Will returning to Las Vegas push the third film over its predecessors or will a been-there-done-that mentality set in and a further reduction in box office receipts occur. I’m leaning towards the latter.”
Box Office Results: $112.2 M
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Too much was enough. Audiences must have been put off by the departure the second film took from its predecessor. Even though the second film was a huge hit, that disappointment may have generated ho-hum opinions of the sequel even though it promised to return the film to its roots. The critically drubbing the film receive may have also contributed.

Before Midnight (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Strong. The second film in this well respected film series from Richard Linklater should be a strong contender for a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination, since the prior installment picked up the same nomination in 2004. It probably won’t result in a win, though. And with the new rules for Best Picture, a dedicated group of fans of the franchise could push it into the final Best Picture slate, but that will be an overwhelming task.”
Oscar Results: On the indie landscape, there are few more celebrated directors than Richard Linklater, yet many of them have entered the crowded Oscar race this year. I imagine Woody Allen will take the year’s indie-auteur slot at the Oscars and Linklater may have to accept a screenwriting nomination as consolation. Things could change if the film performs well at the critics’ awards.
Box Office Prediction: $7 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Decent. One of the few limited-release franchises out there has come up with a third entry and while none of them have built out of their niche cinematic comfort zone, the prior two films both made just over $5.5 million. Adjusting for ticket price inflation, leads me to push the total up slightly over that, but I hestitate to say that it will do much better than this.”
Box Office Results: $8.1 M
Thoughts: [Success] Time certainly has improved this franchise’s appeal as this film easily outperforms its predecessors.

May 31-Jun. 2, 2013

Now You See Me

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Weak. If it were a particularly poor year in visual effects, I could see a movie like this pulling off a surprise nomination; however, there’s nothing weak about visual effects these days.”
Oscar Results: There’s nothing about the film that screams Oscar.
Box Office Prediction: $120 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unknown. It’s hard to know how a non-franchise vehicle will perform in the midst of a franchise-heavy summer environment, but if there’s one film I can see as a potential breakout hit, it’s this one. Mixing the popular heist genre with prestidigitation is an interesting concept and with the right marketing, I could imagine it doing very well at the box office.”
Box Office Results: $117.7 M
Thoughts: [Success] I expected the film to perform well, but many others didn’t. What chance did a non-franchise film about street magicians have against a crowded niche-market Summer. Yet, the film still managed to perform quite well… Well enough even for a sequel.

After Earth (NOT PREVIEWED)

Box Office Prediction: N/A
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Nothing.”
Box Office Results: $60.5 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The film was originally scheduled for June 7, but was pushed up a week to compete with Now You See Me instead of against The Internship. Whether the move hindered or hurt isn’t an issue. They probably moved it back so it didn’t get clobbered a week later by Man of Steel and instead ended up clobbered by Now You See Me becoming a flop for all involved.