There are no two bigger months at theaters. While the Summer may provide box office swing, both box office and Oscars dominate the final two months of the year with November likely the biggest of them all. This year, a number of top notch films will compete for audience dollars and critics’ appreciation going into the final weeks of pre-Oscar wrangling. This November features one of the most impressive line-ups Oscar has seen in some time, with many of them strong contenders for one or multiple nominations. (UPDATE, 10/31/13: I unintentionally re-wrote most of these items and even added a few that weren’t here before, so I’m adding the updated comments just for the sake of completeness)

NOVEMBER 1, 2013

Ender’s Game

Premise: From IMDb: “70 years after a horrific alien war, an unusually gifted child is sent to an advanced military school in space to prepare for a future invasion.”
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Expectations: Decent. All the publicity the film has received against Ender’s Game author Orson Scott Card’s abhorrent views will likely boost the film’s performance enough to negate the impact of any boycott against the film. That should permit it to cross the $100 million mark. However, be warned: science fiction isn’t having a great year and a number of films we thought would be hits have ended up flops, which bolsters the potential that, apart from Gravity, there may not be much interest in sci-fi at the box office.
Oscar Prospects: Mediocre. If it’s a breakaway box office hit, it could do well with the Oscars. Releasing late in the year may also keep it fresh in minds, but there is so much competition in categories where the film could do well that I ultimately think it’s going to sit the Oscars out.

Ender’s Game (UPDATED VERSION)

Premise: From IMDb: “The International Military seek out a leader who can save the human race from an alien attack. Ender Wiggin, a brilliant young mind, is recruited and trained to lead his fellow soldiers into a battle that will determine the future of Earth.”
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Expectations: Good. Even if reviews are mediocre, the likelihood of this late-year sci-fi picture being successful is high. While it won’t meet Gravity-size expectations, it should still do decent business. Of course, comparisons to Gravity might diminish the film’s potential as it adheres to a Star Wars-esque sensibility towards the genre and not a 2001: A Space Odyssey approach.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. Early reviews haven’t been great and while that doesn’t always mean Oscar failure, the films that have surmounted negative reviews to gain Oscar nominations have typically been films that were box office hits. With strong competition on release weekend from Last Vegas, Ender’s Game could have a tough time finding a toe-hole in its climb up the box office mountain and if that’s the case, no manner of great visual effects will give it an edge up over better received and better rewarded sci-fi films already in release this year.

Free Birds

Premise: From IMDb: “Two turkeys from opposite sides of the tracks must put aside their differences and team up to travel back in time to change the course of history – and get turkey off the holiday menu for good.”
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Expectations: Decent. There has never been a hugely successful Thanksgiving film, but Relativity Media hopes to change that with this animated features with turkeys as protagonists. The problem is that Relativity is untested in the animation marketplace. This is the specialty studio’s first animated film and their history suggests they aren’t terribly great at selling their wares. It’s a bit easier to push an animated feature, especially when there aren’t many others in the cineplex at the same time, so it could do quite well, but the previews don’t suggest it will be that good.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. In spite of a lackluster field of potential Best Animated Feature contenders, there’s little to suggest that Free Birds will be amang them. It will require strong box office and a lot of support from critics to become much of a contender.

Free Birds (UPDATED VERSION)

Premise: From IMDb: “Two turkeys from opposite sides of the tracks must put aside their differences and team up to travel back in time to change the course of history – and get turkey off the holiday menu for good.”
Box Office Prospects: $120 M
Expectations: Good. With no major animated films on the horizon, Free Birds will have plenty of time to strut through the Thanksgiving holiday to a solid opening and extended performance. Judging by the look of it, however, not many will want a second helping.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. There’s a lot of competition each year for Best Animated Feature, but this year it’s a bit different. This year, there are no major frontrunners already established in the race and many films that might have been considered shoe-ins for nominations have tanked at the box office and with critics leaving a few holes that could easily be filled by equally-lackluster but more successful projects. This could be one of those if it can hang on through the Thanksgiving holiday as it has a strong hold on family audiences for that time.

Last Vegas

Premise: From IMDb: “Three sixty-something friends take a break from their day-to-day lives to throw a bachelor party in Las Vegas for their last remaining single pal.”
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Expectations: Good. While none of these actors have a lot of experience opening movies alone, together they may be a formiddable team. The lovable codgers motif should prove attractive in the Thanksgiving season when few outright comedies are vying for viewers. Yet, the second trailer isn’t as funny as the first, which may ultimately sink its prospects.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Last Vegas (UPDATED VERSION)

Premise: From IMDb: “Three sixty-something friends take a break from their day-to-day lives to throw a bachelor party in Las Vegas for their last remaining single pal.”
Box Office Prospects: $150 M
Expectations: Good. Comedy has been doing great business this year, especially from older audiences. What could be better paired with such audiences than a comedy about older actors living it up in Vegas. It’s already being called The Hangover for the elderly, but I suspect it has broad-demographic appeal and will trade that in for excellent business.
Oscar Prospects: None.

About Time (NEWLY ADDED)

Premise: From IMDb: “At the age of 21, Tim discovers he can travel in time and change what happens and has happened in his own life. His decision to make his world a better place by getting a girlfriend turns out not to be as easy as you might think.”
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Expectations: Decent. Starting in limited release, the filmmaker who brought the well-liked Love Actually to the screen takes a new twist on the formula and sets us on a time-bending journey that picks up elements from Groundhog Day, with less comedic strength. The film will take time to get going, but should eke out a decent living at the box office with no real rom-com-petition hanging around.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Dallas Buyers Club

Premise: From IMDb: “The story of Texas electrician Ron Woodroof and his battle with the medical establishment and pharmaceutical companies after being diagnosed as HIV-positive in 1986, and his search for alternative treatments that helped established a way in which fellow HIV-positive people could join for access to his supplies.”
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Expectations: Good. For an indie, this one has been getting a lot of buzz, particularly around its performances. Both Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto have been earning raves from pre-release screenings, which could lead them both to the Oscars. That alone sould bolster its chances at the box office.
Oscar Prospects: Decent. The film hasn’t released yet, so the buzz may be unfounded, but McConaughey has been on a career high the last few years, which may give him his best shot at an Oscar nomination and, with it, an Oscar, he’s had in awhile. Leto hasn’t been on the same kind of trajectory, though, so if critics love it it’s possible he could end up nominated. The supporting races aren’t as populated, so he might have a chance at a nomination.

Dallas Buyers Club (UPDATED VERSION)

Premise: From IMDb: “The story of Texas electrician Ron Woodroof and his battle with the medical establishment and pharmaceutical companies after being diagnosed as HIV-positive in 1986, and his search for alternative treatments that helped established a way in which fellow HIV-positive people could join for access to his supplies.”
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Uncertain. It’s an Oscar contender and Matthew McConaughey is a well liked figure; however, he hasn’t been able to sell a box office behemoth in some time and the challenging subject matter is sure to struggle to find more than a niche audience. Still, if the Academy decides to fete the film, it could have a long stay at the specialty box office and finish well above what I’ve predicted.
Oscar Prospects: Good. A film that would have been at home in the early 1980’s when AIDS dramas were finding wide appreciation and distribution, this historical look at a pro-sports star who takes on the pharmaceutical establishment and works to ensure fellow HIV-positive sufferers have protection from greedy practices. The film has earned quite a lot of attention, especially for Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto’s performances in the film, but that high profile nature could benefit the film with chances in other categories, including Best Picture and screenwriting.

Diana

Premise: From IMDb: “During the last two years of her life, Princess Diana embarks on a final rite of passage: a secret love affair with Pakistani heart surgeon Hasnat Khan.”
Box Office Prospects: $1.5 M
Expectations: Poor. While there are many fans of Princess Diana in the world, the reaction out of the United Kingdom suggests the film is terrible, which will severely dampen its potential audience in the U.S. Curiosity alone may help it make some money, but not a lot.
Oscar Prospects: Poor. With the reaction from across the pond largely negative, I don’t see how Watts can ride a wave of support to a nomination and after her multitude of nods in recent years, it’s possible that voters may think she’s had enough if they don’t think she’s good enough in the role.

Diana (UPDATED VERSION)

Premise: From IMDb: “During the last two years of her life, Princess Diana embarks on a final rite of passage: a secret love affair with Pakistani heart surgeon Hasnat Khan.”
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Expectations: Weak. Like the many other poorly-written biopics in the last few years, it’s unlikely this film would make anything resembling a boatload of cash. Previous biopics have had the benefit of Oscar campaigns to bolster their attendance, but even then they find it fairly difficult to collect enough cash to make it seem worth it. The Academy might help, but is equally as likely to forget the film, which puts this mid-October release in a bind.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. Once upon a time, this was considered the vehicle that would finally win Naomi Watts an Oscar after two Oscar nominations and countless near-misses. Yet, as with many other biopics in recent years, the subject matter was pieced together poorly for the screen and critics have been largely dismissive, sinking her chances at an Oscar, but also damaging her chances at a nomination. Although she’s pulled out some surprise nominations on less high-profile efforts, the hefty competition for the Best Actress category will make it a challenge for her to get nominated, but if she can make it for this, she can make it for just about anything…until she wins that is.

NOVEMBER 8, 2013

Thor: The Dark World

Premise: From IMDb: “Faced with an enemy that even Odin and Asgard cannot withstand, Thor must embark on his most perilous and personal journey yet, one that will reunite him with Jane Foster and force him to sacrifice everything to save us all.”
Box Office Prospects: $205 M
Expectations: Excellent. The first film made $181 million at the box office, which is really good except when compared to Iron Man and The Avengers. However, with the added exposure since that film’s release, look for a goose in attendance to this Marvel character’s stand-alone film.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. The Academy has proven it doesn’t adore superhero films and while it could get a Best Visual Effects nomination, the fact that the previous film did not doesn’t bode well for its chances, especially with Iron Man 3 in the competition.

Thor: The Dark World (UPDATED VERSION)

Premise: From IMDb: “Faced with an enemy that even Odin and Asgard cannot withstand, Thor must embark on his most perilous and personal journey yet, one that will reunite him with Jane Foster and force him to sacrifice everything to save us all.”
Box Office Prospects: $205 M
Expectations: Excellent. There’s little question this sequel to Thor and secondary follow-up to the box office bonanza The Avengers will make heaps of cash. The question here is how much. While this wasn’t the top performer of the four Avengers stand-alone films, the character (and its actor Chris Hemsworth) have built a lot of energy since then and I suspect that it would easily surpass its predecessor, but not by enough to topple the Iron Man films.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. The first film, in spite of its bountiful visual effects, was an Oscar no-show and this year, that’s a distinct possibility again, except that this one is releasing late enough in the year that memories won’t be as forgetful about its existence. Outside of the sound and visual effects categories, I wouldn’t expect too much and even there the film is a bit of an underdog.

The Armstrong Lie (NEWLY ADDED)

Premise: From IMDb: “An exposition of cyclist Lance Armstrong as he trains for his eighth Tour de France victory.”
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Expectations: Uncertain. The film’s success will be directly tied to how much energy Armstrong’s former fans and current detractors about reliving the lies that are so fresh in their memory. It’s quite possible the film will struggle at the box office but might be buoyed by Oscar consideration.
Oscar Prospects: Decent. Documentarian Alex Gibney has an uneven history with the Academy. Twice, he’s been nominated for Best Documentary Feature, winning once in a surprise win for Taxi to the Dark Side. This year, he has another shot at a nomination with this film that was originally intended to be a documentary about Lance Armstrong’s struggles to overcome cancer and become a world champion cyclist. He began working on this prior to the revelation that Armstrong had cheated and transformed it into an exposé of the “Livestrong” athelete using actual interview footage from Armstrong to tell the story. That unique twist of purpose coudl be enough to land it on the nomination block, especially in the deft hands of Gibney.

The Book Thief (PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED TO RELEASE 11/15/13)

Premise: From IMDb: “While subjected to the horrors of WWII Germany, young Liesel finds solace by stealing books and sharing them with others. Under the stairs in her home, a Jewish refuge is being sheltered by her adoptive parents.”
Box Office Prospects: $3 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Little has leaked out about the film and it hasn’t been playing festivals (it will only hit two minor ones before its release) which doesn’t bode well for its fortunes. At this point in the year, a limited festival run means little to no interest.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. The premise seems like it would be manna to Oscar voters, but the film hasn’t been picking up any buzz and that doesn’t typically mean the film will do very well anywhere.

The Book Thief

Premise: From IMDb: “While subjected to the horrors of WWII Germany, young Liesel finds solace by stealing books and sharing them with others. Under the stairs in her home, a Jewish refuge is being sheltered by her adoptive parents.”
Box Office Prospects: $6 M
Expectations: Weak. The difficult subject matter, the specialty release and the bountiful bunch of Oscar contenders already in release (and yet to open) should guarantee that the film performs very poorly at the box office, though strong word of mouth after strong reviews could bolster its chances.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. On paper, this would sound like the perfect Oscar contender, a small, family drama taking place during the Holocaust. The Academy has always shown a willingness to forgive even the slightest weaknesses when considering these films. The problem is that the film has gotten very little attention this year and lacking visibility could very well hurt the film’s chances, which could have competed in any number of categories this year based on premise alone.

The Starving Games (NEWLY ADDED)

Premise: From IMDb: “In this Hunger Games spoof, Kantmiss Evershot must fight for her life in the 75th annual Starving Games, where she could also win an old ham, a coupon for a footlong sub, and a partially-eaten pickle!”
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Spoofs can still make piles of dough, but a lot depends on the accessibility of the material. Aaron Seltzer and Jason Friedberg haven’t made a lot of money at the box office with their films, but with the film’s parodied successor coming in two weeks, added interest might help the film mak a bit more than they are accustomed to. Regardless, for as little as these films cost to make, any tally still banks them plenty of cash.
Oscar Prospects: None.

NOVEMBER 15, 2013

The Best Man Holiday

Premise: From IMDb: “When college friends reunite after 15 years over the Christmas holidays, they will discover just how easy it is for long-forgotten rivalries and romances to be ignited.”
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Average. Films targeting black audiences have been somewhat successful in recent years generating strong debuts, but quick descents down the charts. So, expect this one to open strong and finish middling.
Oscar Prospects: None.

The Best Man Holiday (UPDATED VERSION)

Premise: From IMDb: “When college friends reunite after 15 years over the Christmas holidays, they will discover just how easy it is for long-forgotten rivalries and romances to be ignited.”
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Will this be the latest narrow demographic-targeted film to bomb at the box office. Tyler Perry remains the only figure that can adequately sell this type of film, though people keep trying. It’s possible the dearth of such films may give this film legs; however, with others on the immediate horizon, it won’t have very long legs.
Oscar Prospects: None.

The Wolf of Wall Street (RESCHEDULED TO RELEASE 12/25/13)

Premise: From IMDb: “Based on the true story of Jordan Belfort, from his rise to a wealthy stockbroker living the high life to his fall involving crime, corruption and the federal government.”
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Expectations: Uncertain. I characterize this as uncertain largely because I don’t know that the film will make its release date. At over 3 hours, the studio seems to be pushing Martin Scorsese to cut the film down, which may delay the film’s release. Still, Scorsese’s crime films and thrillers perform very well at the box office, so with the marketing push the film is receiving, I have little doubt it will ultimately turn a tidy profit.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. If Scorsese can’t get the film released by the end of the year, even for a one-week run, then it won’t be eligible this year. However, I think Paramount really wants the film in the Oscar competition this year, so they’ll do whatever they can to push for at least a qualifying run. This means the film will likely receive multiple nominations as critics love Scorsese even when he’s not at his best. Look for nominations for Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor (Matthew McConaughey) for sure and Best Director, Best Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio), Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Editing as strong possibilities. Everything else might be a struggle since this is a non-period film with seemingly few visual effects and major sound pieces.

Nebraska

Premise: From IMDb: “An aging, booze-addled father makes the trip from Montana to Nebraska with his estranged son in order to claim a million dollar Mega Sweepstakes Marketing prize.”
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: Decent. Alexander Payne’s films may not be classified as blockbusters, but they are consistent. Of his three films in the last decade, all have made (adjusted for inflation) more than $85 million, but seldom much more. This would normally be a good target number, if the film weren’t in black-and-white and starred more recognizable (to mass audiences) faces than Bruce Dern. Still, a decent $60-million-plus total wouldn’t be shocking.
Oscar Prospects: Good. Bruce Dern has famously quipped that he refuses to go Supporting Actor though he’s being pressured to. Getting him into the very-tight Best Actor race would be a great coup for him and vindication for his position against the whoring out of leads in the supporting categories. Of course, the race is so tight that failure to make it will be seen as a blow and may lead to more category gerrymandering. Still, Payne is always a key Oscar player and each of his last three films have earned at least one Oscar nomination in the acting categories and two of them were nominated for writing, directing and picture. His chances at nomintaions in these categories are only hindered by so many tight competitions this year.

Nebraska (UPDATED VERSION)

Premise: From IMDb: “An aging, booze-addled father makes the trip from Montana to Nebraska with his estranged son in order to claim a million dollar Mega Sweepstakes Marketing prize.”
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: Good. It might be a tough sell, but if there’s a director today that could make money off a black-and-white dramedy, it’s Alexander Payne. His last several films, in spite of somewhat depressing subjects and quirky premises, have been successes at the box office. This story may stretch his ability to sell his films, but it should still make suitable funds, especially if it makes it through to the Oscars.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. Never underestimate Alexander Payne who has a stellar history with the Academy and this film should be considered a solid contender. However, the buzz died down after the festival and until it’s seen by wide audiences, it’s uncertain if the film can follow his previous films Sideways and The Descendants.

NOVEMBER 22, 2013

Delivery Man

Premise: From IMDb: “An affable underachiever finds out he’s fathered 533 children through anonymous donations to a fertility clinic 20 years ago. Now he must decide whether or not to come forward when 142 of them file a lawsuit to reveal his identity.”
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Vince Vaughn isn’t the biggest name at the box office, but he has enough credit to continue making movies. This one is a remake of an English-language indie, which won’t endear it to critics, but audiences might be drawn to the crazy nature of the premise giving it a good, thought doubtfully great outcome.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Delivery Man (UPDATED VERSION)

Premise: From IMDb: “An affable underachiever finds out he’s fathered 533 children through anonymous donations to a fertility clinic 20 years ago. Now he must decide whether or not to come forward when 142 of them file a lawsuit to reveal his identity.”
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: Poor. Adaptations of little-seen films don’t always do well at the box office and Vince Vaughn has had strouble succeeding in recent months. The film could still be a hit, and while it might seem a good counter-programming move opposite The Hunger Games sequel, guys aren’t going to be rushing out to see a movie about a man impregnating hundreds of women and are more likely going to accompany their significant others to The Hunger Games instead.
Oscar Prospects: None.

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Premise: From IMDb: “Katniss Everdeen and Peeta Mellark become targets of the Capitol after their victory in the 74th Hunger Games sparks a rebellion in the Districts of Panem.”
Box Office Prospects: $450 M
Expectations: Excellent. The first film barely passed the $400 million mark, but sequels to tween films, once they’ve sold themselves as strong filmic outings, generally improve the second time out. Of course, with a new director, the quality of the picture is in doubt. Ultimtaely, even a crappy director isn’t likely to sink the Hunger Games juggernaut.
Oscar Prospects: Poor. If the acclaimed and popular first film couldn’t crack the Oscar’s glass ceiling, I doubt the sequel will be able to.

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (UPDATED VERSION)

Premise: From IMDb: “Katniss Everdeen and Peeta Mellark become targets of the Capitol after their victory in the 74th Hunger Games sparks a rebellion in the Districts of Panem.”
Box Office Prospects: $400 M
Expectations: Excellent. Sequels, especially to tween-targeted films, don’t have a lot of history of success. Even the Twilight sequels hvae struggled to get to or much beyond their predecessors. Although The Hunger Games was targeted at tween audiences, the books, and thereby the film, managed to surpass what’s possible for a film that targets such a narrow demographic. The wide ranging support among other types of audience members will ultimately help the film get close to its predecessor and maybe surpass it, but I doubt that at this juncture.
Oscar Prospects: Weak. As with the original film, the technical achievements are astounding, but the Academy relegates this film to the same space it sets aside for other tween films. The sequel could still compete in some categories for nominations, but I doubt it will make it through with a nomination outside of Best Original Song, which still seems very iffy.

Philomena (NEWLY ADDED)

Premise: From IMDb: “A world-weary political journalist picks up the story of a woman’s search for her son, who was taken away from her decades ago after she became pregnant and was forced to live in a convent.”
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Decent. The film is sure to be an Oscar contender, but will it be a contender outside of the specialty box office. Harvey Weinstein has a history of making smaller films hits and the universality of the subject matter might make it quite a popular film. Reviews will be positive, but whether the film can become a break-out hit in a sea of adult-targeted films over the winter remains to be seen.
Oscar Prospects: Decent. As usual, Judi Dench has entered the conversation with a new role as a mother desperately seeking for the son taken from her shortly after he was born. It’s a tough race this year, but Dench is said to deliver a powerhouse performance filled with exacting range. She might even pull the film in for more nominations, including a first for Steve Coogan, likely in Best Supporting Actor.

NOVEMBER 27, 2013 (WEDNESDAY)

Black Nativity

Premise: From IMDb: “A street-wise teen from Baltimore who has been raised by a single mother travels to New York City to spend the Christmas holiday with his estranged relatives, where he embarks on a surprising and inspirational journey.”
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Expectations: Uncertain. The long list of flops at the demo-targeted box office suggest a major hit is seldom guaranteed. The cast in this one might be enough to bolster it’s chances.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Black Nativity (UPDATED VERSION)

Premise: From IMDb: “A street-wise teen from Baltimore who has been raised by a single mother travels to New York City to spend the Christmas holiday with his estranged relatives, where he embarks on a surprising and inspirational journey.”
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Uncertain. On the heels of Best Man Holiday, strong word of mouth will be required for this film to become much of a success (not that Holiday will either). Regardless, it’s a shrewd move positioning this film on Thanksgiving, which might give it a chance to access audiences that don’t typically make it out to the theater for lack of interesting options.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Frozen

Premise: From IMDb: “Fearless optimist Anna teams up with Kristoff in an epic journey, encountering Everest-like conditions, and a hilarious snowman named Olaf in a race to find Anna’s sister Elsa, whose icy powers have trapped the kingdom in eternal winter.”
Box Office Prospects: $180 M
Expectations: Good. It’s Disney animation which has been consistently strong in the winter marketplace. Their last two original properties (Tangled and Wreck-It Ralph) handily passed the $180 million mark. The only issue is that by now advertising should be everywhere, but they’ve only just released their first non-teaser. Of course, this is the perfect time of year to release an animated film, which should do boffo business over Thanksgiving.
Oscar Prospects: Good. There isn’t much out there that could be considered a guarantee for a Best Animated Feature nomination, so Frozen stands an excellent chance of making the slate. Since their last four blockbusters each earned a nomination, it could be considered something of a guarantee.

Frozen (UPDATED VERSION)

Premise: From IMDb: “Fearless optimist Anna teams up with Kristoff in an epic journey, encountering Everest-like conditions, and a hilarious snowman named Olaf in a race to find Anna’s sister Elsa, whose icy powers have trapped the kingdom in eternal winter.”
Box Office Prospects: $200 M
Expectations: Excellent. First, it’s Disney. Second, it’s animated. Third, there isn’t much else around since Free Birds will have been in release for four weeks by this point. Four, an animated film from a major powerhouse animation studio releasing over Thanksgiving should be a slam dunk.
Oscar Prospects: Strong. There are three studios you should always expect to see in the Oscar race for Best Picture: DreamWorks, Disney/Pixar and regular Disney. This falls into that third category and with the level of mediocre hits in the medium this year, it stands a very good shot of becoming Disney’s first stand-alone Best Animated Feature winner in history. Pixar’s won several times (including last year over the significantly better Wreck-It Ralph) as has DreamWorks; however, Disney, whose craftsmanship in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s led to the modern animation revival that resulted in this category to begin with, has never won.

Homefront

Premise: From IMDb: “A former DEA agent moves his family to a quiet town, where he soon tangles with a local meth druglord.”
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Expectations: Weak. Opening over Thanksgiving will help, but Jason Statham isn’t a popular figure at the box office, so don’t expect too much.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Homefront (UPDATED VERSION)

Premise: From IMDb: “A former DEA agent moves his family to a quiet town, where he soon tangles with a local meth druglord.”
Box Office Prospects: $20 M
Expectations: Weak. When was th elast time Jason Statham had a hit? The Expendables. When was the last time he had a solo hit? Never, really. This is one of the biggest go-to action actors working today, yet none of his films have made much money at all. This should continue for a film that will easily get lost over Thanksgiving.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Oldboy

Premise: From IMDb: “Obsessed with vengeance, a man sets out to find out why he was kidnapped and locked up into solitary confinement for 20 years without reason.”
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Mediocre. Spike Lee has never been a box office icon, though the indie crowd loves him. In addition, remaking an acclaimed foreign classic will pique many interests; however, if the film is seen as too derivative or not as good as its predecessor, the film will quickly fade. Thanksgiving is probably not the best time to release such a film and with it competing for male audiences with Homefront, both could take quite a hit.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Oldboy (UPDATED VERSION)

Premise: From IMDb: “Obsessed with vengeance, a man sets out to find out why he was kidnapped and locked up into solitary confinement for 20 years without reason.”
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Uncertain. Spike Lee hasn’t had a hit in awhile and it’s likely this film, which goes against his typical filming style will bolster those chances. Still, curiosity seekers could give the film a chance and fans of the original might be interested just to see how close or different this American remake is from it.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

Premise: From IMDb: “A chronicle of Nelson Mandela’s life journey from his childhood in a rural village through to his inauguration as the first democratically elected president of South Africa.”
Box Office Prospects: $3 M
Expectations: Uncertain. The premise and cast have led to claims that the film is a strong Oscar contender, but even after festival showings no one seems to be buzzing about the film the way they need to for an Oscar and limited box office hit. Still, strong reviews and a solid marketing effort could give it a decent box office tally.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. Idris Elba and co-star Naomie Harris have been on Oscar shortlists for months now, but with the rise of 12 Years a Slave, talk of Mandela has diminished significantly. Not that either film really has to do with the other, but the Academy hasn’t typically rewarded multiple black-cast films in one year, so I wonder if people think it will fail in the shadow of the more abundantly praised 12 Years. I think that’s hogwash. The Academy has never had such a bevy of films to choose from and its entirely possible the film could still be a major player, just not in as many categories as 12 Years. Elba will have a fight on his hands for Best Actor, but Naomie Harris could still sneak into a weaker lineup in Best Supporting Actress.

Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (UPDATED VERSION)

Premise: From IMDb: “A chronicle of Nelson Mandela’s life journey from his childhood in a rural village through to his inauguration as the first democratically elected president of South Africa.”
Box Office Prospects: $2 M
Expectations: Uncertain. A satisfactory showing at the specialty box office is a given. Whether the film can break out beyond that remains to be seen. With Lee Daniels’ The Butler and 12 Years a Slave already draining the coffers of those interested in films exploring the struggles of race relations over the last two hundred years, it’s likely this one will get lost in the shuffle, even with strong reviews and a possible Oscar nomination or two.
Oscar Prospects: Uncertain. Cinema has found a new gold mine in examining the black experience. This year alone, three films (Fruitvale Station, Lee Daniels’ The Butler and 12 Years a Slave) have tackled different aspects of history’s stance on slavery, Civil Rights and prejudice. Add this fourth film and voter fatigue may settle in. Idris Elba and possibly Naomie Harris have a chance of getting nominated for the film, but I have my doubts about whether the film can strike out beyond this with both 12 Years and The Butler dominating conversations this year. Even Fruitvale is starting to get lost in the shuffle.