April 5, 2013

Evil Dead

Box Office Prediction: $75 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Above Average. It’s a cult classic these days and regardless of how idiotic the trailer looks, people will line up to pay homage to one of the ’80s horror legends. Will that translate into a Paranormal Activity-type box office juggernaut? Unlikely.”
Box Office Results: $54.2 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Studios had hoped that after two decades of cult status, an Evil Dead remake would rake in boat-loads of money. But without original helmer and in spite of decent, but not overwhelmingly ecstatic reviews, the film managed mid-ranged horror box office numbers, treated like an inevitable sequel instead of a re-launch of a famed franchise.

Jurassic Park 3D

Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unknown. Most 3D conversions have been colossal failures, but this was one of the biggest hits of the 1990’s. It has a persistent fanbase and could very well surpass expectations.”
Box Office Results: $45.4 M
Thoughts: [Success] On par with most other 3D-converted re-releases, this tally well exceeded the cost to make the conversion, marking it a success and likely confirmation that the technique will continue for the forseeable future.

April 12, 2013

42

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “It’s releasing far too early in the year to be a likely Oscar contender, but the cast alone suggests it could compete. Above-the-line categories are decent, including one for Best Actor and possibly one in Best Supporting Actor, but critics could easily sink the film’s chances if they aren’t suitably impressed. Below-the-line categories are unlikely unless the film becomes a huge hit with both audiences and critics.”
Oscar Results: It was a box office hit, but in spite of buzz surrounding the film on its release, most of that buzz has faded as other year-end releases have started showing up. It’s still possible the film could see a nomination for supporting actor Harrison Ford, the likelihood has diminished significantly and the film seems to have fallen far behind a number of other more prominent films on race relations, a popular topic this year.
Box Office Prediction: $35 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Unknown. It’s a baseball film, which gives it an immediate strike. It’s historically-set, which adds a second. But it’s about one of the most important baseball figures in history and it could end up being a huge hit. With little other competition, it could end up on a long road to a much higher total than I’ve predicted.”
Box Office Results: $95.0 M
Thoughts: [Success] Unlike the sport which hasn’t been pulling the numbers it used to, historical films on baseball have been doing increasingly well. With Moneyball a likely starting point, the genre has picked up steam with this very popular foray into the world of baseball records and the struggles Jackie Robinson faced when he became the first black professional baseball player. The cross-demographic makeup of the audience helped make this film a success.

Scary Movie V

Box Office Prediction: $65 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Above Average. It’s been 7 years since the last film in the franchise was released, which gives it a huge hurdle to clear; however, the franchise has been one of the most consistent of the spoof genre, with no film performing lower than $70 million and two of them topping $100 million. However, because of the lackluster performance of A Haunted House earlier this year, the market for spoofs isn’t as strong as it was when Scary Movie was churning out films in the 1990s. However, the name alone should help it surpass the Wayans version even if the two of them share common elements according to the trailers.”
Box Office Results: $32.0 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] Too long has this franchise been absent from the marketplace and too similar was it to A Haunted House that audiences just didn’t seem that interested. Like the Scream franchise that this film was intended to poke fun at, the long-absent follow-up just couldn’t hold a candle to its predecessors.

To the Wonder

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Malick has a lot of fans in the Academy as evidenced by the peformance of The Tree of Life at the Oscars. The film had faded through the precursor season in spite of its several prizes and by the time the Oscar nominations came out, no one was even certain it would make the expanded field. It did. So, look for this one to build decent buzz through awards season. Of course, The New World proves the Academy doesn’t always love Malick. Yet, that film did business on par with Tree of Life, so it’s a better sign of box office potential than Oscar potential.”
Oscar Results: Box office and critical bombs, especially ones from legendary filmmakers, dont do well at the Oscras. There’s still the possibility that a cinematography nomination could occur since even Malick’s least popular films before have gotten in there, but it’s far from a done deal.
Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. As an independent film, the bar for success is set much lower and when it comes to Terrence Malick, a $15 million showing is pretty good (that’s what his last film The Tree of Life made). The question is where this can approach his biggest success, his prior Best Picture nominee The Thin Red Line which took $36 million 15 years ago. I doubt it will reach that point even in 2013 dollars, but a lot depends on whether the weak buzz for the film that came out of the festival circuit last year is to be believed. Brad Pitt couldn’t bring Tree of Life to a mass audience, so I doubt Ben Affleck will have much luck either.”
Box Office Results: $587.6 K
Thoughts: [Flop] If you’re a prominent filmmaker, the best way to ensure dismal box office numbers is to make a film that critics largely dislike. With horrid reviews, To the Wonder marks what could be the beginning of the downfall of legendary Terrence Malick.

April 19, 2013

Oblivion

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “It will be a big player in the Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects categories, but branching into places like Production Design will be a huge challenge for this kind of genre.”
Oscar Results: The film could still earn some tech nominations, but there have been far more visible features in release this year. Ultimately, I think the film’s chances were contingent on much higher box office numbers.
Box Office Prediction: $300 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Excellent. Tom Cruise may not be able to turn every turd into a hit, but when he tackles action films, you can bank on him to outperform expectations. The futuristic sci-fi elements of Oblivion might temper its performance potential, but with Morgan Freeman in support, the film should do terrific business.”
Box Office Results: $89.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] I may have far over-estimated this film’s potential, but it’s final tally isn’t terrible for a sci-fi picture, especially in a marketplace that seems to have become over-saturated with them.

April 26, 2013

The Big Wedding

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Genre pictures like this seldom make plays for Oscar consideration. I doubt this one will buck that “tradition.””
Oscar Results: Critics hated it and audiences didn’t care, so chalk this one up as a no-way.
Box Office Prediction: $110 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. If the cast alone means anything, this should do exceedingly well at the box office. Whether it will be a smash hit or a decent $100-million-plusser depends on just how bad it is. The tidbits I’ve seen have suggested it isn’t so great, but that doesn’t always mean anything.”
Box Office Results: $21.8 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Critics don’t always kill this kind of film, but terrible marketing does. Having an all-star cast can’t always rescue a film that doesn’t resonate with audiences. Had this come out in June during the more traditional wedding season, it might have done better, but nothing short of a full-blown marketing effort was likely to help.

Pain & Gain

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Without the explosions and visual effects that typically accompany a Michael Bay film, I’m not sure how this one will do. Sound Mixing and Sound Editing are probably its only chances.”
Oscar Results: Heist films don’t do well with the Academy and even with a technically proficient director like Michael Bay, this film just doesn’t look like it will go the distance.
Box Office Prediction: $130 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Good. A more likely hit than The Big Wedding, Pain and Gain has the name Michael Bay behind it plus the box offie draw of Mark Wahlberg and Dwayne Johnson. Combined, I think this could help the film become a very big hit. Of course, it’s been a long time since Bay did anything outside of the Transformers universe, so its prospects aren’t certain.”
Box Office Results: $49.9 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] For Michael Bay, this was plenty of pain with absolutely no gain. Heist films usually do better at the box office, but Michael Bay hasn’t found much success outside of his blockbuster pyrotecnic mold. Bay found success with Bad Boys, but it doesn’t seem like he’s able to make that type of hit anymore.