Although my annual Oscar Hopefuls page has been put together since some time in March, I haven’t really put much effort into it. Then, Friday, I decided I would finally get it together, encouraged by the rules change in an effort to try and make my impression known on what could come out on top this year (at least from the films we know anything about).

And, of course, I forgot to link it anywhere. So, here’s the link: Oscar Hopefuls.

Please note that I had a couple of major changes to do today, but don’t have access to the file to post them today, so I’ll just let you know what they are.

Somehow, despite my initial impressions on the trailer, I forgot to add The Hurt Locker to the list. While I’m not sure it will get nominated in many places, it seems like an ideal film for the Oscar Top 10. So, it has been inserted there (replacing Shutter Island) and is also listed as a contender in several other categories. In addition, I forgot to add Ponyo to the list of Best Animated Feature contenders. So, it has been added and inserted as a nominee in place of Monsters vs. Aliens.

So, perhaps I should explain the rationale to my choices.

There are five films that I had on my radar as Best Picture nominees for some time sight unseen, of course. Peter Jackson’s The Lovely Bones, Clint Eastwood’s Invictus, Rob Marshall’s Nine, Michael Mann’s Public Enemies and Mira Nair’s Amelia. Each of these have the feel of classic Oscar nominees (and probably would have been my prediction for the final five regardless of the Top 10 decision) and I can’t really see a reason, aside from them being utter crap, for any of these five not to make the final list.

Just under these, I have a few bold predictions based on past Oscar capabilities (such as Ang Lee’s Taking Woodstock, which isn’t exactly steaming up the festival circuit), Avatar (based solely on James Cameron’s innovative potential) and Up (based entirely on my belief that the new Top 10 rule will bolster the chances of animated films.

That leaves 2 films that I have a suspicion may benefit from the Top 10 rule. Kathryn Bigelow’s The Hurt Locker is the kind of film that earns raves from critics (as it has already started to receive them), but fails to make Oscar’s final list because of a lack of Oscar history. Bigelow’s films are hardly noteworthy and Renner, although he may have been a long-shot contender for Best Actor for Dahmer, is far from a headlining celebrity. However, it is bound to have a strong, devoted following among Oscar voters, hence its inclusion in my list.

The exact same thing can be said for The Road, which has the added benefit of top-tier talent who have flirted with or received Oscar nominations in the past: Charlize Theron, Robert Duvall, Viggo Mortensen and Guy Pearce are certain to increase the potential prestige of the film and if the trailer is any indication, this could be a critics’ darling just like Children of Men. And, like Children of Men, under the old rules, it would not be a contender had the Top Ten not been created.

Now, there are plenty of other films that could benefit from the rules change, films we never would have talked about as Oscar contenders in the past, but which most certainly are now: Star Trek, Julie Taymor’s The Tempest, Hayao Miyazaki’s Ponyo and Disney’s The Princess and the Frog. However, these have dwindling chances as blockbusters (Up) and potential ones (Avatar, Public Enemies) emerge from the above list. But also keep an eye out on two other films that have either already played well or have the potential to do so: Javier Bardem starrer Biutiful, Jane Campion’s Bright Star and Martin Scorsese’s Shutter Island (removed from the list based on the genre and the fact that the last time he made a film like this, Bringing Out the Dead, he wasn’t even remotely close to Oscar consideration).