There are no two bigger months at theaters. While the Summer may provide box office swing, both box office and Oscars dominate the final two months of the year with November likely the biggest of them all. This year, a number of top notch films will compete for audience dollars and critics’ appreciation going into the final weeks of pre-Oscar wrangling. This November features one of the most impressive line-ups Oscar has seen in some time, with many of them strong contenders for one or multiple nominations.

September 6-8, 2013

Riddick

Premise: From IMDb: “Left for dead on a sun-scorched planet, Riddick finds himself up against an alien race of predators. Activating an emergency beacon alerts two ships: one carrying a new breed of mercenary, the other captained by a man from Riddick’s past.”
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Expectations: Unexceptional. Opening so soon after Labor Day is typically a bad sign for a film. While it’s not the official Labor Day weekend when kids and young adults are spending the last days of Summer enjoying their freedom, it’s close enough that I wouldn’t expect much from the film. The original film in the franchise made just over $57 million while the second and most recent entry scored under $40 million. Time has gone by and the character or Riddick has a dedicated following, but I don’t think they’re as potent a market as the studio is expecting.
Oscar Prospects: None.

September 13-15, 2013

The Family

Premise: From IMDb: “The Manzoni family, a notorious mafia clan, is relocated to Normandy, France under the witness protection program, where fitting in soon becomes challenging as their old habits die hard.”
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Expectations: Solid. You have to believe that Robert De Niro and Michelle Pfeiffer playing an ex-Mafia couple would drum up plenty of interested business. And it’s possible the film could play well to a demographic that hasn’t had much to see at the theater; however, the film hasn’t gotten nearly the advertising campaign that it needs to be a runaway success.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Insidious Chapter 2

Premise: From IMDb: “The haunted Lambert family seeks to uncover the mysterious childhood secret that has left them dangerously connected to the spirit world.”
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Expectations: Uncertain. The first film was a modest horror success, which typically means a sequel will perform well at the box office. However recent trends suggest sequels aren’t necessarily performing better if they don’t seem necessary. Take for example The Last Exorcism, Part II, which was a flop earlier this year in spite of a successful predecessor.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Blue Caprice (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A narrative feature film inspired by the events known as the Beltway sniper attacks.”
Box Office Prospects: $4 M
Expectations: Uncertain. The events the film depicts are ripe for tension and creativity, however the film hasn’t gotten a lot of advance buzz or advertisement. That it’s so near releasing is not a positive thing.
Oscar Prospects: Depending on how critics and audiences respond to the film, it could be a contender, but I’m guessing it ends up overshadowed by other more prominent festival entries.

Jayne Mansfield’s Car (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “Alabama; 1969: The death of a clan’s estranged wife and mother brings together two very different families. Do the scars of the past hide differences that will tear them apart, or expose truths that could lead to unexpected collisions?”
Box Office Prospects: $1.5 M
Expectations: Uncertain. The film has a catchy title and has been long chatted about as Billy Bob Thornton’s first film in over a decade and only his third since his highly successful and acclaimed debut Sling Blade. That so little attention is being afforded the film does not bode well for its chances.
Oscar Prospects: Since 1996, when he won the Oscar for Sling Blade, Thornton has received one Oscar nomination for acting in A Simple Plan in 1998. There doesn’t seem to be anyone clamoring for more of the same so far.

September 20-22, 2013

Battle of the Year

Premise: From IMDb: “Battle of the Year attracts all the best teams from around the world, but the Americans haven’t won in fifteen years. Dante enlists Blake to assemble a team of the best dancers and bring the Trophy back to America where it started.”
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Meager. Another dancing competition film. The last several haven’t done much box office, but who knows for sure if the audience will suddenly turn out?
Oscar Prospects: None.

Prisoners

Premise: From IMDb: “A Boston man kidnaps the person he suspects is behind the disappearance of his young daughter and her best friend.”
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: Solid. The film has a strong cast of recognizable faces and touches on a tender subject that audiences may be able to empathize with. It’s hard to know for sure if this formula will work or not, but they’ve been advertising a lot and there aren’t many similar films in the marketplace, so the possibilities are good.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Rush (Limited)

Premise: From IMDb: “A biography of Austrian Formula 1 champion driver Niki Lauda and the 1976 crash that almost claimed his life. Mere weeks after the accident, he got behind the wheel to challenge his British rival, James Hunt.”
Box Office Prospects: $120 M
Expectations: Strong. Ron Howard has a decent track record with the box office. Discarde his comedic failure with The Dilemma and his last film made easily $133 million. Most of his non-mass audience features haven’t been great box office behemoths, but all in all he’s had a very successful history. His trailer for Rush is adrenaline-fueled and should borrow a nice cross-segment of the population.
Oscar Prospects: Howard has an uneven history with Oscar. He’s only had two contenders since he won Best Picture and Best Director for A Beautiful Mind and Cinderella Man struggled with the Academy. Frost/Nixon did much better and is the more recent example. Of course, Rush isn’t much like these films and better conjures images of a film like Apollo 13, which was both a box office hit and an Oscar contender. This year is overflowing with potential contenders, so it’s hard to say if the film can turn its period dramatics into critical and Oscar acclaim, but it’s possible and if all else fails, it should be a strong contender in the tech categories.

September 27-29, 2013

Baggage Claim

Premise: From IMDb: “Pledging to keep herself from being the oldest and the only woman in her entire family never to wed, Montana embarks on a thirty-day, thirty-thousand-mile expedition to charm a potential suitor into becoming her fiancé.”
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Expectations: Weak. Even if the film had Tyler Perry’s name over the title, I still doubt it would be much of a force at the box office. The premise is a bit facile and there has been little in the way of advertising.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2

Premise: From IMDb: “Flint Lockwood now works at The Live Corp Company for his idol Chester V. But he’s forced to leave his post when he learns that his most infamous machine is still operational and is churning out menacing food-animal hybrids.”
Box Office Prospects: $130 M
Expectations: Solid. The first film was a decent hit and I don’t see why the sequel won’t be able to build upon that pre-existing fanbase. I doubt it will reach the level of Pixar or DreamWorks sequels, but a strong tally over $100 million should be easy.
Oscar Prospects: The first film, in spite of decent reviews, never managed to factor in the Oscar competition. This year, however, the film has less laudable competition, which could give it a leg-up in terms of nominations. Still, it’s not from one of the heavy-hitters, so a win isn’t as likely.

Don Jon

Premise: From IMDb: “A New Jersey guy dedicated to his family, friends, and church, develops unrealistic expectations from watching porn and works to find happiness and intimacy with his potential true love.”
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Expectations: Weak. Joseph Gordon-Levitt has yet to open a film well. Last year at this time, he tried an bike-riding action film and didn’t do very well. This concept is a little more appealing to the frequently-ignored female demographic, so it could do well, but a Magic Mike-style success is unlikely.
Oscar Prospects: It has received decent advanced word and was even featured recently in a Hollywood Reporter article about awards season and actor-directors. However, I have a hard time believing this film, especially releasing in August, will make much of a splash with Oscar.

Therese

Premise: From IMDb: “Set in the lower echelons of 1860s Paris, Therese Raquin, a sexually repressed beautiful young woman, is trapped into a loveless marriage to her sickly cousin, Camille, by her domineering aunt, Madame Raquin. Therese spends her days confined behind the counter of a small shop and her evenings watching Madame play dominoes with an eclectic group. After she meets her husband’s alluring friend, Laurent, she embarks on an illicit affair that leads to tragic consequences.”
Box Office Prospects: $2 M
Expectations: Weak. A period sexual drama doesn’t sound like something audiences typically love, at least in this day and age. Gone are the days of Dangerous Liaisons. Jessica Lange might be a prominent actress, but in a supporting role against two actors who’ve yet to try and prove themselves as box office draws, I don’t see much hope outside of the specialty market.
Oscar Prospects: Two films this year use Therese in their title. One is a French foreign language film starring Audrey Tautou. The other is an English-language film set in 1860’s Paris. The plots may not be similar, but the titles are and that kind of confusion could either benefit both or impede both. Regarldess, neither film sound like major Oscar contenders, though the former at least has potential if submitted by France for Oscar consideration.