February 1, 2013

Bullet to the Head

Box Office Prediction: $40 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Apart from his collaboration with other big name action stars in The Expendables, Sly hasn’t had a very good history with the box office in recent years. This looks like another in a long line of career duds for Stallone.”
Box Office Results: $9.5 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Not only was it a dud, but I severely overestimated its potential. A sub $10-million total doesn’t cover much, making this a very costly flop.

Stand Up Guys

Box Office Prediction: $25 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “A cast that isn’t populated with box office stars might appeal to a narrow demographic of older voters, but even those may be turned off by the violent prospects of the film.”
Box Office Results: $3.3 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Issuing in limited release isn’t a boon, but even then it should have performed better than this with that cast.

Warm Bodies

Box Office Prediction: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Sometimes the film that has the most unusual premise does exceedingly well at the box office. This zombie romantic comedy could be the right mood-setting feature for a cold February trip to the cineplex.”
Box Office Results: $66.4 M
Thoughts: [Success] As expected, Warm Bodies met expectations with its $66 million total. Its obscure premise helped bolster its numbers making it one of the few hits of the first two months of 2013.

February 8, 2013

Identity Thief

Box Office Prediction: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “When Bateman teams up, his films do better than when he appears by himself or in a genre pic. This time, he has the added benefit of the now-popular Melissa McCarthy. Although the concept seems a bit thin, those who enjoy road trip movies infused with lunacy will find something to get excited about. And with few major threats over the month, it could do solid business.”
Box Office Results: $134.5 M
Thoughts: [Success] Melissa McCarthy cannot be beaten. Even when I estimate a strong showing for her films, she significantly outperforms them.

Side Effects

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Soderbergh should always be in the conversation, but is typically not. I don’t see this one becoming a rare breakthrough for him.”
Oscar Results: Critics were supportive, but not overly so. I still think the film will be ultimately ignored by the Academy.
Box Office Prediction: $20 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Duds or hits. Soderbergh can’t seem to find a middle ground. Contagion is probably the only film in his long career that has done solid box office numbers without surpassing $100 million. The rest of his films seem to soar or flop and this one doesn’t seem like it’s going to take off. Little advertisement and a handful of recognizable but box office anemic names won’t help.”
Box Office Results: $32.2 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] Neither soaring, nor flopping, Side Effects didn’t have the advertising push it needed to perform better, but this result is well above what is typical for a small, indie Soderbergh film.

February 15, 2013

Beautiful Creatures

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Never let anyone tell you that films aimed at the tween demographic have a chance at the Oscars. As The Hunger Games proved last year, strong reviews and a tween audience do not an Oscar nominee make.”
Oscar Results: XXXX
Box Office Prediction: $90 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Hype, hype and more hype. This film needs serious hype to overcome the ennui some audiences may be feeling over these teen-centric titles. Unlike The Hunger Games or Twilight, Beautiful Creatures doesn’t have the rabid base of support to make it an instant hit. However, the formula is there and a strong performance is possible.”
Box Office Results: $19.5 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Disney was hoping to replicate the Twilight and Hunger Games successes, but overestimated the popularity of the source material and underestimated what they would have to do to drive attendance.

Escape from Planet Earth

Box Office Prediction: $115 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “In the last few years, it’s rare for an animated film to falter at the box office. With no competition naerby, Escape from Planet Earth should have little problem overcoming the likely lukewarm reviews to be a decent February hit. It’s starting a month earlier than Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax did last year, so the waters haven’t quite been tested for this window.”
Box Office Results: $56.8 M (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE)
Thoughts: [Minor Flop] Animated films should do better than this, especially when there isn’t much competition around. Still, the film looked like it was going to be uninteresting from the trailers and proved to be so, keeping most new and repeat business away.

A Good Day to Die Hard

Box Office Prediction: $120 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “In spite of its cheesy premise, the Die Hard franchise is dependable, each film having met the $100 million threshhold. Only 1995’s entry barely hit that number, but the price of tickets has inflated, so we shouldn’t have much doubt that John McClane can do it again.”
Box Office Results: $67.3 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The Die Hard franchise is fading, though its final gross won’t be enough to discourage further attempts. The cheesy promotional material and the shifted focus toward a father-son actioner would have better fit in the Father’s Day box office corridor, not the doldrums of February.

Safe Haven

Box Office Prediction: $80 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Nicholas Sparks has a decent box office reputation. His films have typically hit the sweet spot for audience anticipation of romantic dramas. His weakest performance at the box office to date was $41 million and his best was $81. I expect this one to come in at the higher end of that thanks to its key, pre-Valentine’s Day positioning.”
Box Office Results: $71.3 M
Thoughts: [Success] While it didn’t do as well as I expected, it says something when the weekend’s most popular film is a romcom. Benefiting slightly from the Valentine’s Day influx, Safe Haven didn’t disappoint, but didn’t overperform much either.

February 22, 2013

Dark Skies

Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Supernatural horror films are one of the most reliable genres at the box office. While $50 million might not sound like much, frequently that’s a 1000% return on investment, which is why these films seem to be churned out at a decent rate. This one looks like it will end up in that same range without much problem.”
Box Office Results: $17.4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Apperances can be deceiving. Apparently the marketing that went towards the film didn’t do a very good job selling it as it bombed out against a film starring The Rock.

Snitch

Box Office Prediction: $50 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “The Rock has never [passed] $60 million off of one of his pure action films. His action-comedies and family adventure films do quite well with audiences, but little else. This might do decent business, but with so many solid holdovers at the cineplex when it releases, I doubt we’ll be surprised by the result.”
Box Office Results: $42.9 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] His box office performance was about as expected, though a little south of the $50 million range, which makes it an unexceptional performance, but one which won’t disrupt plans to continue trying to make The Rock an action star. At least he’s doing better than Jason Statham.