October is one of those months that tries to build the box office out of its September doldrums while ramping up Oscar candidates. This month is spectacularly fitting of that model, with potential Oscar nominees fighting it out with box office contenders and with a number of failures-in-the-making on deck.

October 7, 2011

Ides of March

Premise: A young assistant to a ideological politician causes problems when he delves into dirty politics.
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: While the potential is there, the political nature of the film may keep a large number of people away from the film.
Oscar Prospects: This is one of the year’s stronger contenders. Solid reviews and a likable cast could keep it in strong competition throughout awards season in several top tier categories.

Real Steel

Premise: Where robots have replaced humans as boxers, a down-on-his-luck robot controller finds renewed hope when his son decides to join his father in trying to build the perfect competitive robot.
Box Office Prospects: $125 M
Expectations: Against my better judgement, I’m giving this one a strong chance of making a solid total at the box office. Hugh Jackman despite a few recent duds is still a popular guy and this film has fanboy favorite written all over it.
Oscar Prospects: I doubt the tech categories will be a factor, but Visual Effects, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing might have distant possibilities.

Wanderlust

Premise: An urban couple decides to try to live life in the counter-culture in this comedy starring Jennifer Aniston and Paul Rudd.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Expectations: Comedy is king this year, but this R-rated comedy may be yet another dismal disappointment. So many other fall comedies that looked to key muscle into the race fell flat with audiences.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Texas Killing Fields

Premise: A small town sheriff is forced to investigate a serial killer who’s been dumping bodies in an off-limits and blood-drenched region of the state.
Box Office Prospects: $35 M
Expectations: Audiences have shown little interest in this type of dark potboiler, suggesting it probably won’t do much business.
Oscar Prospects: Despite its festival pedigree and semi-positive word of mouth, the film just doesn’t seem to be igniting the way it needs to in order to be a major contender.

Also Releasing this weekend: Blackthorn, A western drama starring Sam Shepherd as an aging Butch Cassidy hoping to see his home one last time; The Human Centipede 2, a sequel to what has been described as the most disgusting indie horror film of all time; The Way, This Emilio Estevez film stars him and his father Martin Sheen as he travels to France to recover the body of an estranged son who was traveling there.

October 14, 2011

The Big Year

Premise: An annual birdwatching event brings together three avid bird watchers, competing to find the rarest birds in the world.
Box Office Prospects: $50 M
Expectations: It’s so ludicrous a concept that it might actually work. It’s the kind of film that will test Jack Black’s ability to draw people to the theater, which remains limited.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Footloose

Premise: Remaking Kevin Bacon’s successful ’80s dance film finds a young loner in a small town where partying has been outlawed after a tragic accident claims the lives of four youths.
Box Office Prospects: $80 M
Expectations: Remakes of semi-popular ’80s films have hardly done well at the box office, but dance films like this might have a decent shot at making some money.
Oscar Prospects: None.

The Thing

Premise: John Carpenter’s popular ’80s sci-fi horror saga starring Kurt Russell finds new life in this remake.
Box Office Prospects: $65 M
Expectations: The weekend of remakes features another ’80s “classic” hoping for a new audience. The original film is something of a celebrated work among horror enthusiasts, so them turning out for an obvious play at money may not work well.
Oscar Prospects: None.

The Skin I Live In

Premise: Pedro Almodovar’s latest film about a plastic surgeon who attempts to find a synthetic skin impervious to damage.
Box Office Prospects: $3 M
Expectations: Almodovar isn’t a big name at the box office, so its potential is fairly limited. Curiosity seekers, intrigued by the concept might give it a chance, but it won’t help much.
Oscar Prospects: If there’s a Spanish-language director the Academy likes to recognize, it’s Almodovar. However, he hasn’t had much luck in recent years and this may be a bit too bizarre for them.

Also Releasing this weekend: Giorgio Moroder Presents Metropolis, A modern restoration of the classic silent feature from Fritz Lang. Set to a more modern orchestral score, the film hopes to ignite passion in its dedicated fanbase.

October 21, 2011

The Mighty Macs

Premise: A small all-girls Catholic college attempts to form and make a success out of the school’s new basketball team.
Box Office Prospects: $25 M
Expectations: With no major stars and lukewarm reception, the film looks like a dud in the making.
Oscar Prospects: None.

Paranormal Activity 3

Premise: The third film in the franchise finds home video cameras following two young girls as they and their house is haunted by nefarious spirits.
Box Office Prospects: $75 M
Expectations: Even though the second film made less than the original, that never stopped the makers of the Saw franchise. This time around, I expect the total to be further diluted.
Oscar Prospects: None.

The Three Musketeers

Premise: Dartagnan, Athos and Porthos star in this new 3D adaptation of the classic novel.
Box Office Prospects: $110 M
Expectations: It has a lot of promise. A big budget, period action adventure film could do Pirates of the Caribbean numbers, but I’m going to be cautious and suggest a total just north of $100 million.
Oscar Prospects: Art Direction and Costume Design are strong possibilities, but the Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects categories have a lot of contenders, probably too many for this film to sneak in.

Martha Marcy May Marlene

Premise: She escaped a dangerous and abusive cult, but her fractured memories and paranoia must be controlled before she is able to reintegrate herself into the real world.
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Expectations: Even if it catches on the way Winter’s Bone did last year, it won’t manage a very impressive tally.
Oscar Prospects: There is heavy talk of star Elizabeth Olsen picking up an Oscar nomination for the film and it could result in a screenwriting nomination as well. Best Picture and Supporting Actor John Hawkes may also be in the cards.

Red State

Premise: A group of teens eager to cash in their e-mail invitation for sex, encounter a group of religious fundamentalists who want to make a horrific example of them.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Expectations: Kevin Smith has never directed a horror film before, but word is it’s not that good. But when has that ever stopped an audience from checking out a horror film?
Oscar Prospects: None.

Also Releasing this weekend: Margin Call, a drama about the early stages of the financial crisis follows a group of investment bankers and employs as they struggle to cope with the results.

October 28, 2011

Anonymous

Premise: William Shakespeare never wrote a word. That’s what this conspiracy theory film from Roland Emmerich suggests.
Box Office Prospects: $40 M
Expectations: Emmerich hasn’t been doing well commercially with his disaster or action films, so perhaps he’ll have a chance with the pro-Shakespeare crowds.
Oscar Prospects: Normally, the Emmerich name means a film is about to miss the mark in a number of categories, but everything I’ve read about this film suggests that it is a sumptuous feast with strong performances. Whether the film can enter the Best Picture or Best Director race, I am in doubt, but an acting nomination or two and especially Art Direction and Costume Design are definite possibilities.

In Time

Premise: A sci-fi thriller about a young, poor man given the balance of time on a wealthy philanthropist’s life clock seeks to live up to the wealthy man’s expectations while being pursued by government agents who believe he killed the man and stole his remaining time.
Box Office Prospects: $70 M
Expectations: The concept is so original that I think it will find several fans, not only from those who love action films, but also sci-fi geeks who want to take in any clever idea they can find. It’s a potent combination that should do better for this film than it did for Source Code.
Oscar Prospects: Because the film looks like it may be more mainstream than Source Code, I imagine it will not compete in many categories with Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Visual Effects its only hopes.

Johnny English Reborn

Premise: The clutzy British secret agent brings comedian Rowan Atkinson back to the big screen.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Expectations: It’s been eight years since the original and, as far as I’ve ever heard, it’s not a film that people immediately jump at saying should have a sequel. I imagine since the first film only did about $25 million in business, the sequel should under-perform that.
Oscar Prospects: None.

The Rum Diary

Premise: Johnny Depp stars as a freelance journalist working for a run-down newspaper in the Caribbean, struggling to find a purpose in life while those around him are crumbling.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Expectations: Depp can sometimes be a strong box office draw, but at other times (like last year’s pseudo-dud The Tourist), his name alone isn’t enough to bring massive audiences to the theater.
Oscar Prospects: There has been talk since the film was in the pipeline for release last year that Depp could be nominated. Yet, since the film didn’t find a date for theaters until this year, it may not be much of a possibility.

Like Crazy

Premise: Two college students, one American, one British, are separated with the Brit overstays her visa and is banned from re-entry into the U.S.
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Expectations: A suitable indie stream of business should help this film pull solid, but not impressive numbers.
Oscar Prospects: The film won two prizes at the Sundance film festival this year: the Grand Jury Prize and a special prize for acting to Felicity Jones. It could carry those impressive wins into the Oscar, but I suspect it will be overshadowed by a lot of bigger, more Oscar-friendly films.