Below is a wrap-up of the predictions I made several months ago, an exploration of what succeeded and what failed, and how I observe things to have gone.

December 2, 2022

Violent Night

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: No change.
Box Office Prospects: $45 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Poor. There isn’t a lot of good history for Christmas-set horror, most of the films go direct to video or to a streaming service that caters to such films. This one will be an interesting test of the genre.”
Box Office Results: $50.1 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] It’s been a long time since a Christmas-themed horror film released and to no one’s surprise, this one did very well.

Emancipation (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. AppleTV+ is trying desperately to replicate its CODA success. The problem is they have a toxic cast member whose apology tour never commenced, is banned from the Oscars itself and likely any related events, so he can’t promote the film, which is for the best. Had Will Smith actually gone out and done some good in the community, it would have gone a long way towards repairing his self-damaged reputation, but he hasn’t and that’s going to hinder this film’s chances. I won’t say that the Academy would punish the film for his transgressions, but the new Birth of a Nation didn’t get anywhere, did it?”
Oscar Results: Failure. The film was thought to be AppleTV’s chance at returning to the Oscars, but they miscalculated the appeal of giving Will Smith a chance so soon after The Slap. It proved to be too much for them to overcome, not to mention the uninspired critical reception.
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. It’s unlikely that AppleTV+ will leave this one in theaters very long and considering the downward trend in Will Smith’s Q score, I doubt the film can make much bank in its likely short tenure in release.”
Box Office Results: N/A
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] The film ultimately released only on Apple TV+, so it’s assumed the film wasn’t going to do well at the box office even if it hadn’t been released streaming-only.

Women Talking (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Good. The film earned strong reviews early in the season and with sucha strong female cast with an important subject matter, I can imagine it working very well with the Academy. While it might struggle for acting citations with such a large supporting cast, several categories are within reach.”
Oscar Results: Minor Success. The film managed to pick up only two nominations, a mite short of what was originally expected, but it pulled off a victory in Adapted Screenplay, which may have made up for the slights everywhere else.
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. For an indie, this could do decently well. However, the film is unlikely ever to go wide and while it might generate Oscar attention, that won’t be enough to make it a major hit.”
Box Office Results: $5.5 M
Thoughts: [Unexceptional] It’s hard to judge the success of a movie like this. $5.5 million isn’t great, but for an indie, especially one that struggled in the precursors, it’s pretty good.

December 9, 2022

The Whale

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. While star Brendan Fraser is almost certain a nomination, Darren Aronofsky’s latest film hasn’t gotten an otherwise strong reception, so that could be the film’s only citation.”
Oscar Results: Success. While the film pulled off three nominations, its tally was a bit lower than some expected. Even without that, it managed to carry off two Oscars and that’s pretty good for such a minor film.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. This is an Oscar-capable film and it’s releasing wide? Not many titles like this can succeed and with the recent flop of Bros, clearly audiences aren’t willing to put down money on gay-oriented features.”
Box Office Results: $17.5 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] While you wouldn’t exactly call $17.5 million great business, for an indie film, it’s pretty good. That said, it was an indie film that went wide to start rather than platforming and that may have cost it a few million.

Spoiler Alert (Expanding)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: No change.
Box Office Prospects: $10 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Going for the platform release, the studio is no doubt trying to do better than Bros did, but I can’t imagine that strategy succeeding with this particular film.”
Box Office Results: $1.4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] It’s unfortunate that all these gay dramas and comedies aren’t pulling in box office bank, but weepies just haven’t been drawing audiences anyway, so these numbers are pretty anemic.

Empire of Light (Limited)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. This is one of the last films to be seen in Oscar season and the delay is either sign of trouble or a poorly calculated attempt to elicit late viewings. Unfortunately, the film is coming out after a slew of other titles are getting to inboxes and that could put it behind without strohng support from critics. It has the pedigree of a film that could do great with the Academy, but it’s still a major question mark.”
Oscar Results: It had a concept that Oscar voters typically like, but the film wasn’t as well received as expected and the hits kept coming except for Best Cinematography, the unifying element of the film that managed to beat the odds and still generate an Oscar nomination.
Box Office Prospects: $5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. It’s an Oscar-bait period film. I can’t imagine audiences wanting to give this one a go.”
Box Office Results: $1.2 M
Thoughts: [Flop] With the limited critical support and a lack of Oscar playbook, this number is surprisingly high, but still terrible.

December 16, 2022

Avatar: The Way of Water

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. Another of the last-to-be-screened features, there’s no doubt that James Cameron wants this to be both a box office success and replicate his prior film’s Oscar performance as well. The problem is that it is coming far too long after the last film that most people probably won’t remember it well enough to have the fond memories needed to score it more than below-the-line attention at the Oscars.”
Oscar Results: Success. It managed to pull off a number of Oscar nominations, but its prospects outside of Best Visual Effects were never good.
Box Office Prospects: $400 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. It’s been 15 years. Is anyone really excited about taking a trip back to Pandora? Cameron’s films are spectacle and that could help it do well, but it will have to be a major spectacle with lots of repeat business to even come close to its predecessor’s near-$800 million tally.”
Box Office Results: $684 M
Thoughts: [Success] (STILL IN LIMITED RELEASE) The first film did incredibly well, taking in $785 million domestic. That was 13 years earlier. Adjusted for inflation, that number rises to $929.8 million, which is a far cry from this film’s performance. Absence did not make the heart grow fonder.

December 23, 2022

I Wanna Dance with Somebody (on 12.21.2022)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. This seems like a film that may be waiting because it’s not as good as one would hope. That said, it’s following the Bohemian Rhapsody-style push and that could either be a winning combination or a dismal failure. At this point, it’s impossible to be certain.”
Oscar Results: Failure. While there was light chatter about star Naomie Ackie being an Oscar contender, the Best Actress slate was fierce and even two of the top contenders didn’t make the list.
Box Office Prospects: $60 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. The film wants to make tons of money like Bohemian Rhapsody and Whitney Houston is the kind of figure people can get behind. However, the film doesn’t seem like a strong Christmastime release.”
Box Office Results: $23.7 M
Thoughts: [Major Flop] Whitney Houston was a major entertainer, one of the most popular in music history. Yet, her rise to fame couldn’t produce more than this middling result.

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (on 12.21.2022)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “None.”
Oscar Results: Success. While sequels seldom have Oscar hopes, this film managed to defy expectations, especially in a weak year for animated features, and pick up that coveted Oscar nomination.
Box Office Prospects: $100 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. While the Shrek franchise fizzled out some time ago, Puss in Boots is still out there, but 11 years after the predecessor isn’t a profile in potential success.”
Box Office Results: $185.5 M
Thoughts: [Major Success] Disney and Pixar used to be the dominant studios at the box office, but Disney’s poorly thought out plan to release to streaming most of its films set the expectation that if people waited long enough, they didn’t have to go to the theater. That allows films like this, which still enjoy a full-throated box office release, will do so well. While this isn’t Disney/Pixar levels of success. It’s still one of the best animated feature box office results in recent memory.

Babylon (on 12.23.2022)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. The film was screened late, but some have seen it and the early buzz isn’t as strong as one would expect from the La La Land filmmaker. Of course, First Man didn’t do well either and it was right up the Academy’s alley. The mediocre response may foretell the film’s struggle with Oscar voters with only a small amount of buzz for Margot Robbie and some decent below-the-line options.”
Oscar Results: Minor Success. In spite of its drubbing from critics and audiences, the film still managed several Oscar nominations, though its lack of popular support probably cost it a more-than-deserved win in Production Design.
Box Office Prospects: $30 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Like Amsterdam, this film just doesn’t seem like the kind of title that can open wide and make lots of money. A platform release might have helped it build buzz, but if it isn’t that great, then this might be their best option to catch people off guard.”
Box Office Results: $15.4 M
Thoughts: [Flop] The critics didn’t care for the film and it released wide, likely to avoid a bruising platform release, so they likely hoped it would do better than this, but without critics’ support, the film languished in theaters and closed quickly.

Corsage (Limited on 12.23.2022)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. It’s a festival player so it should have already built buzz, but it hasn’t. Right now, its only likely chances are in Production Design and Costume Design and even those are iffy at present.”
Oscar Results: Failure.There were a lot of period films in release and this film never managed to make it past the starting gate in terms of Oscar consideration.
Box Office Prospects: $1.5 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. Audiences just don’t love period films, so I wouldn’t imagine it doing much business.”
Box Office Results: $0.7 M
Thoughts: [Flop] Without the bolstering of a good Oscar campaign, the film performed dismally at the box office.

Living (Limited on 12.23.2022)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. There was a raft of strong buzz for Bill Nighy when this was first seen, but that buzz has almost all died away with the emergence of Brendan Fraser. Nighy could still contend, but it’s a stacked category and the film just isn’t building the right profile at the right time.”
Oscar Results: Minor Success. The film never seemed like a major contender, but it was well liked by critics in general, but Bill Nighy’s performance was ecstatically received, which bolstered its Oscar chances and pushed it into a double Oscar nomination for Nighy and Adapted Screenplay.
Box Office Prospects: $1 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Weak. It’s an indie film with an actor who has no cult following, so I wouldn’t expect it to do much business outside of the art house circuit.”
Box Office Results: $3 M
Thoughts: [Minor Success] This isn’t the kind of film that burns up the box office, but for a small indie, the film did surprisingly well when it didn’t have a lot going for it.

A Man Called Otto (Limited on 12.25.2022)

Oscar Prospects: What I said: “Uncertain. This is another of the last films to be seen and the fact that it’s a remake of Oscar nominee A Man Called Ove should give anyone pause. That star Tom Hanks isn’t playing an excessively-aged character suggests this one will be an Oscar no-show.”
Oscar Results: Failure. The original film this was based on received an Oscar nomination for Best Makeup & Hairstyling along with one for Best Foreign Language Film. Neither were assured. Yet, this film didn’t bother aging up Tom Hanks and the song written for the film, while well liked, couldn’t sneak past the other contenders in the category.
Box Office Prospects: $15 M
Box Office Expectations: What I Said: “Uncertain. Tom Hanks could help the film build buzz and some bank, but the platform release strategy might not be the way to go.”
Box Office Results: $64.3 M
Thoughts: [Success] It’s a bit surprising to see Tom Hanks doing so well at the box office after his last several films performed poorly, but the material and the star wattage helped secure the film a strong box office result.