The American Society of Cinematographers is not the best predictor of the guilds because they have very specific predilections. There isn’t an exact overlap with the Oscars, but if one of the films in that overlap wins, an Oscar win could be foreshadowed.

AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CINEMATOGRAPHERS AWARDS

Best Cinematography

The Batman
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
Elvis (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Empire of Light
Top Gun: Maverick (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Three of the five Oscar nominees are on this list and one of them isn’t Top Gun: Maverick. Until the Oscars failed to nominate the film, it was expected it would sweep the Oscar and other prizes. Yet, that’s not what happened. I suspect they’ll rally to the film they thought should have been nominated, especially since it used a lot of new tricks to capture its aerial shots. Elvis is also flashy and thus is my runner-up prediction. That said, never count out industry favorite Roger Deakins and Empire of Light, which also made the Oscar list alongside Bardo and Elvis.
Peter J. Patrick: They won’t be able to brag that their winner went on to win the Oscar this year if they give it to Top Gun: Maverick but I have a feeling they will do so anyway.
Tripp Burton: No predictions provided.
Thomas LaTourette: With All Quiet on the Western Front not nominated here, this would seem a likely win for Top Gun: Maverick. But since it was not able to win the BAFTA perhaps it will go to Elvis instead.

Documentary

All That Breathes (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Chef’s Table: Pizza – “Franco Pepe”
This Stolen Country of Mine (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: This is a tough category as I hadn’t really heard of the second two films. Thus the Documentary Feature Oscar nominee is my pick.
Peter J. Patrick: The Oscar-nominated All That Breathes should take this one.
Tripp Burton: No predictions provided.
Thomas LaTourette: The lone Oscar nominee, All That Breathes, would seem the likely winner.

Spotlight Award

God’s Country (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
The Quiet Girl (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
War Sailor (RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: The Quiet Girl is an Oscar nominee, albeit for International Feature. The other two have potential, but I’m leaning towards Quiet.
Peter J. Patrick: The Quiet Girl’s cinematography is breathtaking. It should be an easy winner here.
Tripp Burton: No predictions provided.
Thomas LaTourette: The Quiet Girl was noted for its cinematography and probably will win. War Sailor is partially set during WWII, which should give it a chance for exciting cinematography and will make it a competitor.