For our twelfth Rundown article, we examine the supporting performers. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Supporting Actor & Best Supporting Actress as well as general commentary about the race. Friday, we’ll cover the leading counterparts.

Best Supporting Actor

Winner Predictions

• Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
• Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway
• Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans
• Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin (PP R) [New]
• Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once (WL O) (TB O) (TL O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin (TB O) (TL O)
• Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin (WL R) [New] (PP R) [New]

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Wesley Lovell: Dominating the precursors, Ke Huy Quan is the prohibitive favorite. He’s won 81.13% of them, which is a great haul and the SAG win was icing on the cake. BAFTA threw a wrench in the works with its choice of Barry Keoghan, who seems a decent spoiler, but this is Quan’s to lose.
Peter J. Patrick: Ke Huy Quan is the presumed frontrunner thanks to his winning most of the year’s precursors for playing Michelle Yeoh’s faithful husband, but the older skewing AMPAS thinks more like BAFTA who gave their award to Barry Keoghan for his heartbreaking portrayal of his town’s punching bag. I think AMPAS may well do the same.
Tripp Burton: No revised predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: This feels like one of the easiest races to call as Ke Huy Quan has dominated the precursors, winning over 80% of them. Except for the not unexpected loss at the BAFTAs Quan has won every televised race this season and the Oscar should prove no exception. He has a great backstory as a child actor who then left the field for decades before returning triumphantly but he also turned in an impressive performance. He clearly is the frontrunner with no one close. Judd Hirsch was memorable in The Fabelmans but his scenes are so short that I had not even expected him to be nominated. Brian Tyree Henry did good work in Causeway but the movie was little seen and he has no traction. Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan were both exemplary in Banshees, but could easily split the vote. The veteran Gleeson had seemed the most likely to give Quan at least a bit of a race but his inability to win the BAFTA even puts that in question. Unless there is a major upset, truly a major one, Ke Huy Quan easily wins.

Best Supporting Actress

Winner Predictions

• Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (WL O) (TB O)
• Hong Chau – The Whale
• Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin (PP R) [New]
• Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once (TL R) [New]
• Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up Predictions

• Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PP R) [New] (TL R) [New]
• Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin (TB O)
• Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once (WL R) [New]

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Wesley Lovell: Angela Bassett won the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice Association awards, which are big broadcast wins, but she came up short at BAFTA and SAG with Kerry Condon winning BAFTA and Jamie Lee Curtis winning SAG. That sets this up as a three-woman fight. Condon has the majority of precursors with 35.42%. Curtis has 14.58% and Bassett has 10.42%. Those aren’t great figures for any of them. Sentiment could work for both Curtis and Bassett, but with the pair splitting the long-time-actress-who-should-have-an-Oscar-by-now vote, Condon might well come out on top. Right now, I’m torn on who to predict.
Peter J. Patrick: Kerry Condon’s no-nonsense sister deserves to win on merit, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that she will. It’s possible that AMPAS will want to honor a veteran performer instead and give the award to either Angela Bassett or Jamie Lee Curtis. If so, I see Bassett’s grieving queen as more likely than Curtis’ IRS lady. but either one is possible.
Tripp Burton: No revised predictions or commentary provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: Until the last two televised awards, this was looking like Angela Basset’s to lose, but now it is looking like she might. I was surprised when she won the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice Award as actors from Marvel movies have never done well, but that was only the first of a few awards. Kerry Condon from The Banshees of Inisherin had many more precursor awards, but Bassett was looking unstoppable. Condon won the BAFTA, which was not surprising, but the race was shaken up with Jamie Lee Curtis’ win at the Screen Actors Guild. I had long thought that Curtis might be the only one who could upset as they are both long term actors without a win, or for Curtis even a previous nomination. The SAG win shows that Curtis might just win, and the momentum may just be hers. The one thing that keeps this from just being a two-woman race is that they could split the older vote and Kerry Condon could sneak in for the win. It is a possibility but I do not think that much of one. Hong Chau and Stephanie Hsu are both deserving of their nominations but stand no chance of winning. It has suddenly turned into a tight race, but Jamie Lee Curtis looks like she just might win it.

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