For our eighth Rundown article, we give our time over to the people who are most responsible for guiding the film to its desired structure. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Directingas well as general commentary about the race. Next week, we’ll start off on Monday with a category that explores life with minimal filters.

Best Directing

Winner Predictions

• The Banshees of Inisherin – Martin McDonagh
• Everything Everywhere All at Once – The Daniels (WL O) (TB O) (TL R) [New]
• The Fabelmans – Steven Spielberg (PP O)
• Tár – Todd Field
• Triangle of Sadness – Ruben Ostlund

Runner-Up Predictions

• The Banshees of Inisherin – Martin McDonagh (WL O)
• Everything Everywhere All at Once – The Daniels (PP O)
• The Fabelmans – Steven Spielberg (TB O) (TL R) [New]

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Wesley Lovell: The DGA suggests that the Daniels are in the lead, but BAFTA thinks otherwise. Of course, the winner at BAFTA isn’t Oscar-nominated, so the Daniels are probably still in the lead as have a lot of the auteurs that have won this award in recent years. A case could be made for Spielberg, but his film hasn’t don’t nearly as well as expected. And if Spielberg, who’s a DGA favorite, can’t even win there, I don’t think he can win at the Oscars either. Ultimately, I think the biggest threat in this batch is Martin McDonagh who has earned a lot of respect in recent years, but a Best Original Screenplay citation could leave this open for a Daniels victory.
Peter J. Patrick: The directing Oscar goes to the DGA winner more often than not, but the Daniels winning over Spielberg was a surprise that may not repeat at the Oscars.
Tripp Burton: No commentary or revised predictions provided.
Thomas La Tourrette: At the beginning of the season, I figured there was no way that Steven Spielberg could lose as best director. A beloved director doing an autobiographical film, it seemed like it would be catnip for the Academy. But then the movie opened to polite but not overwhelming reviews. It sputtered at the box office and was almost totally ignored by the BAFTAs. He might still pull an upset as he did win the Golden Globe, but it seems increasingly unlikely. Whereas when Everything Everywhere All at Once opened months ago, I thought it might pull off a screenplay award but never expected it to get the most nominations of any film this year. Now it looks to be the prohibitive favorite to win for directing. The DGA win by the Daniels did not cement their chances but made it most likely. The BAFTAs surprised with a win to All Quiet on the Western Front, but since Edward Berger is not nominated for the Oscar, he cannot win here. If the Academy had nominated him instead of Ruben Ostlund for Triangle of Sadness, it would be a different race right now. Tar’s Todd Field and The Banshees of Inisherin’s Martin McDonagh will both get a number of votes, but not enough to win. Unless the Academy turns sentimental towards the 76-year-old Spielberg who has not won in almost 30 years, expect the Daniels to hear their names called out on Oscar night.

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