Let’s talk about the upcoming Oscars.

11 is a magic number at the Oscars. It represents the number of most awards any film has won, which happened three times with Ben-Hur (1959), Titanic (1997), and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2023). It also represents the most nominations received by a film without a win. It happened twice with The Turning Point (1977) and The Color Purple (1985). This year Everything Everywhere All at Once leads the nominations with 11 but it can’t win all 11 unless there is a tie for Best Supporting Actress between Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu, which is extremely unlikely. On the other hand, it can tie the record held by The Turning Point and The Color Purple for the most losses. That, however, is unlikely to happen as well.

Everything Everywhere All at Once is heavily favored to win Best Supporting Actor for former child star Ke Huy Quan in one of the most remarkable comebacks in film history. It is also a strong contender for Best Actress for the film’s star, Michelle Yeoh, Best Direction for Daniel Kwan and Daniel Sheinert who are affectionally referred to as “The Daniels.” Having won the preponderance of year-end critics’ awards it is extremely likely that the fantasy film will get more first place votes for Best Picture than any other film this year. That, though, doesn’t mean it will win with the preferential ballot, a system whereby a film must get 50% of the votes plus one to do so.

If the film with the most votes fails to reach 50% plus one, the ballots for the film with the lowest total votes are then counted toward the film in second place on their ballots and so on until the 50% percent plus one vote outcome is attained by one of the films that hasn’t yet been eliminated from the competition. That film could be the one that received the most first place votes or one that received fewer initial votes but appears higher on the ballots of the films being eliminated through the process. That’s why since 2009, when this system was put in place, there have been so many upset winners.

Under this system, two films with 9 nominations each could easily emerge as this year’s winner.

All Quiet on the Western Front could do what West Side Story couldn’t last year, become the first remake of an Oscar-winning Best Picture to also take home a Best Picture Oscar. Heavily favored to win Best International Film, the German remake of the Oscar-winning 1930 World War I antiwar film is also a strong contender for Cinematography, Score, and Sound, and a possible upset winner for Adapted Screenplay.

The Banshees of Inisherin has won most of the year’s Best Picture awards that Everything Everywhere All at Once didn’t. The Irish comedy-drama is the front-runner for Best Actor for Colin Farrell and Original Screenplay for writer-director Martin McDonagh. It is also a strong contender for Supporting Actress Kerry Condon and Score.

Which film with the most nominations this year is most likely to go home empty-handed?

I give that distinction to Elvis. It has 8 nominations including Best Picture, but I don’t see it winning any of them. That doesn’t mean it’s a bad film, just that the competition is strong in all categories where it might have had a shot at winning in a weaker year.

Which film could win Best Director and lose Best Picture?

That no longer rare distinction could go to The Fabelmans this year. With 7 nominations, Steven Spielberg’s thinly disguised autobiographical film of his early years could well win him his third award for direction following Schindler’s List and Saving Private Ryan but has a tougher chance winning the top prize. It is not favored in any other category although it could pull off an upset win for 91-year-old John Williams for Best Score.

What could upset in both Best Picture and Directing?

Tár with 6 nominations is the little movie that could. Cate Blanchett is heavily favored to win her third Oscar for her portrayal of the titled composer-conductor and first female director of a major German orchestra, but writer-director Todd Field is very much in the running for Best Directing his first film since 2006’s Little Children. The combined strength of Blanchett’s performance and Field’s direction could propel the film to a surprise win over the higher profile Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Banshees of Inisherin for Best Picture and Steven Spielberg and The Daniels for Best Directing.

Where do the year’s top two moneymakers stand?

Top Gun: Maverick has 6 nominations and Avatar: The Way of Water has 4. The Top Gun sequel is likely to win Best Film Editing but is in a tough race with the Avatar sequel for Sound and Visual Effects. I have a feeling they will split those two with Top Gun: Maverick taking Sound and Avatar: The Way of Water taking Visual Effects.

What will this year’s biggest surprise nominee, Triangle of Sadness, get?

Sadly, probably nothing, Its 3 nominations will likely end up being its reward, that and raising its profile to hopefully pull in more viewers.

What will this year’s least nominated Best Picture get?

Women Talking is likely to win in its other nominated category, Adapted Screenplay, where its only real competition is All Quiet on the Western Front .

What were the best films not nominated for Best Picture this year? My vote goes to Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, the frontrunner for Best Animated Feature, and Damien Chazelle’s Babylon, which could pull off a win in the only category in which it is nominated, Best Score, over All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, and The Fabelmans.