As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

Two guilds handed out awards this week, the Art Directors Guild and the American Cinema Editors. While their selections are somewhat enlightening, they aren’t necessarily instructive. In addition, the Spirit, Hollywood Critics Association, and Online Film & Television Association awards were given out, so we have some interesting and not so interesting results to discuss this week.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 15(TUE-MON)

Tuesday, Mar. 8 – Visual Effects Society (Awards) (Official)
Wednesday, Mar. 9 – Costume Designers (Awards) (Official)
Saturday, Mar. 12 – Annie Awards (Awards) (Official)
Saturday, Mar. 12 – Directors Guild (Awards) (Official)
Sunday, Mar. 13 – Critics Choice (Awards) (Official)
Sunday, Mar. 13 – Sound Editors (Awards) (Official)
Sunday, Mar. 13 – British Academy (Awards) (Official)

Big Winners

King Richard pulled off a surprise victory at the American Cinema Editors. It had already surprised with an Oscar nomination, but this ACE victory suggests that perhaps the film is a stronger competitor than imagined. While this doubtlessly will cause some exclaim it’s now in the Best Picture race, I think this victory just suggests that Dune has some competition for the editing award.
tick, tick…BOOM! is also in the hunt for the Oscar for editing. While King Richard had the tennis matches, tick, tick…BOOM! has so much more editing, which could be appealing for the voters.
Nightmare Alley picked up a much needed award from the Art Directors Guild. Some were thinking Nightmare Alley was in trouble against Dune, but that might not be the case.
Dune still has a chance, though, as it also won at the ADG. That gives both this film and the aforementioned a strong shot at the Oscar and provides some decent competition.
The Power of the Dog may have been fading a bit in recent awards races, but the OFTA kept the film afloat with six above-the-line honors this year. While they aren’t an influencer, they can sometimes reflect popular sentiment, which is still high.
CODA got good news out of the Hollywood Critics Association with its Best Picture award. That might be an outlier since that group had given the film far more nominations than any other body this year. However, paired with the SAG victory, it at least has to be considered in the race.
The Lost Daughter did incredibly well at the Spirit Awards, but only one of the categories it won will have any impact at the Oscars since the film was nominated only for three Oscars, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Adapted Screenplay. The award it won, Best Adapted Screenplay, might show the film has broad support, especially after the validation the film received from the USC Scripter Awards. That said, it lost in Supporting Actress and wasn’t nominated for Actress (shockingly), so that might not be much help.

Big Losers

Don’t Look Up couldn’t overcome tick, tick…BOOM! at ACE, which is a bad sign for the film as it heads into this weekend’s BAFTA awards and having also lost ADG, there doesn’t seem to be as broad of support for the film as initially thought. This would have been its best opportunity for a guild win, though.
West Side Story created a lot of wonderful sets, but the Art Directors Guild didn’t care enough for them to overcome more elaborate designs. That doesn’t mean the film is struggling, but it won’t help it as it moves into the final competition for Best Picture.
Belfast has been blanking everywhere. Not only did it struggle for guild recognition, it came up empty-handed at the OFTA, SAG, and other places it was nominated. The film really should have been walking away with a lot more if it was a serious contender for Best Picture.