For our eleventh Rundown article, we stage our predictions for Actor. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Actor as well as general commentary about the race. Tomorrow, we’ll cover Actress.

Best Actor

Winner Predictions

• Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos
• Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog (WL O) (PP O)
• Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM!
• Will Smith – King Richard (TB O) (TL O)
• Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

Runner-Up Predictions

• Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog (TB O)
• Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM! (PP O) (TL R) [New]
• Will Smith – King Richard (WL O)

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Wesley Lovell: The Screen Actors Guild did nothing to clarify this race. Benedict Cumberbatch was leading through the critics groups, Will Smith emerged at SAG and Andrew Garfield has been gaining traction. Javier Bardem and Denzel Washington are also-rans at this point. Smith seemed like a popular choice and it’s no surprise SAG went there, which only hurt Garfield, not Cumberbatch. Cumberbatch has been impressive since his emergence and I still think he has what it takes to win. If BAFTA resolves differently, it might be worth considering revising this prediction, but for now, I’ll leave it as-is.
Peter J. Patrick: Will Smith is the perceived favorite, but Benedict Cumberbatch and Andrew Garfield gave superior performances and are my prediction in that order.
Tripp Burton: This year feels like it is quietly Will Smith’s time.
Thomas La Tourrette: Will Smith has been the front runner all season long, though he always seemed a weak one for his work in King Richard. He is good in the role, but it feels more like he is winning because he has not before rather than excitement over this role. I kept waiting to see if someone else would rise to challenge his status, but that just has not happened. For awhile I wondered if Benedict Cumberbatch might make his way to the front, but it just has not happened. Perhaps it is because he plays such an odious character in The Power of the Dog. Javier Bardem and Denzel Washington never seemed to be contenders. That leaves Andrew Garfield for his surprisingly fun turn as composer Jonathan Larson in tick, tick…Boom! It was a huge change of pace for the actor, and he did win the Golden Globe in the Comedy/Musical category. However, he just does not seem to have the momentum necessary to win. With his Golden Globe win and especially his Screen Actors Guild award, Will Smith seems destined to become an Oscar winner.

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