BAFTA’s overlap with the Oscars this year is discouragingly minimal, which is rather frustrating. We’ve often used them as a barometer going into the Oscars. While something like Best Actor might be helped by that, other races won’t be. Still, we could see trends emerging that might give us a clue.

BRITISH ACADEMY OF FILM & TELEVISION ARTS AWARDS

Best Film

Belfast (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: While there is a pronounced house effect at BAFTA for British actors and productions, they have a separate Best British Film just for that kind of thing. I suspect they’ll split their love between this and that category by giving it to The Power of the Dog here and Belfast there. I could also see Belfast winning out over Power of the Dog as well. Then again, don’t count out Dune as the massive, sweeping epic in the race.
Peter J. Patrick: It would be a shock if The Power of the Dog were to lose this one. Belfast is a strong runner-up but is likely to win the Best British Film award easily. It doesn’t seem likely to win both.
Tripp Burton: Will the BAFTAs go with the most lauded film of the year, or go more British?
Thomas LaTourette: The Power of the Dog has become the film to beat, and I just do not see any of the other films here doing that.

Best Animated Film

Encanto (Tripp, Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Flee (Wesley, Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines

Wesley Lovell: BAFTA is a bit stingy with this award, seldom nominating many films. I could easily imagine them being a bit more snobby than the Oscar and going with Flee. Of course, Encanto is on a bit of a roll, so maybe not.
Peter J. Patrick: If any group is apt to buck the Disney tradition in this category, it’s the BAFTAs, with Flee having an easier shot here than at the Oscars, with Encanto the most likely runner-up.
Tripp Burton: Again, the more popular or the more powerful animated film?
Thomas LaTourette: Encanto should continue its winning ways here unless they go for the more serious Flee.

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Audrey Diwan – Happening
Julia Ducournau – Titane
Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Aleem Khan – After Love

Wesley Lovell: Jane Campion seems like one of the few sure things this year, so I suspect she’s got this one sewn up, but Paul Thomas Anderson and Ryusuke Hamaguchi are possible vanquishers.
Peter J. Patrick: Campion is practically unbeatable, but Hamaguchi is a threat.
Tripp Burton: Jane Campion in a landslide.
Thomas LaTourette: Jane Campion will surely win.

Best Actor

Addel Akhtar – Ali & Ava
Mahershala Ali – Swan Song
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up
Stephen Graham – Boiling Point
Will Smith – King Richard (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: With only two Oscar nominees on this list, I suspect it comes down to a battle between both. Benedict Cumberbatch has the hometown edge, but if Will Smith wins here, the Oscar is very likely his.
Peter J. Patrick: Benedict Cumberbatch should easily take this, with Will Smith his strongest competition.
Tripp Burton: Can Will Smith’s roll continue across the pond, or might hometown favorite Benedict Cumberbatch win one?
Thomas LaTourette: I do wonder if they will not go for Oscar frontrunner Will Smith but the local actor Benedict Cumberbatch.

Best Actress

Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza (Wesley)
Emilia Jones – CODA
Lady Gaga – House of Gucci (RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Renate Reinsve – The Worst Person in the World (Peter, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Wesley)
Joanna Scanland – After Love
Tessa Thompson – Passing (RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: None of the Oscar contenders were selected here, though Alana Haim and Lady Gaga were probably closest to earning those citations from the Academy. While both are musical artists, Licorice Pizza is the better regarded film, so I’m going with her to win. Lady Gaga could still surprise, but Oscar also-ran Renate Reinsve is in this race and I could imagine her winning out over both singers.
Peter J. Patrick: With all of the Oscar nominees missing, this one could go in any direction. Taking a wild guess, I’ll say Renate Reinsve over Tessa Thompson.
Tripp Burton: This is a wild category, and I think we may have a big surprise.
Thomas LaTourette: With none of the Oscar nominees here, it is harder to predict how this will go. I am thinking that the marvelous Renate Reinsve will win as the woman trying to figure out who she is in The Worst Person in the World.

Best Supporting Actor

Mike Faist – West Side Story
Ciaran Hinds – Belfast (Wesley, RU:Peter)
Troy Kotsur – CODA (Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Woody Norman – C’mon C’mon
Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog
Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog (Peter, Thomas, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: There are four Oscar nominees on the list, so we’ll stick to those as the primary contenders. This will be an interesting test of the British Isles-domination of their awards. Ciaran Hinds is a longtime character actor in a potential Best Picture winner. That may well give him the edge over Troy Kotsur who is becoming the season’s sentimental favorite. Don’t count out Kodi Smit-McPhee, though. This is the award he most needs in order to make a case for an Oscar victory. Kotsur winning would end the race.
Peter J. Patrick: I think early favorite Kodi Smit-McPhee will regain his traction with this one, with veteran Ciaran Hinds a possible upset winner.
Tripp Burton: Troy Kotsur just keeps winning.
Thomas LaTourette: While Troy Kotsur has been winning a lot stateside, I wonder if BAFTA will go a different route with the Australian Kodi Smit-McPhee taking this prize.

Best Supporting Actress

Caitriona Balfe – Belfast (Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Ariana DeBose – West Side Story (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Tripp)
Ann Dowd – Mass
Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard
Ruth Negga – Passing (Peter)

Wesley Lovell: Three Oscar nominees grace this list, so we have plenty to choose from. Jessie Buckley has hometown advantage. Ariana DeBose is steamrolling so far this year. Aunjanue Ellis has been trailing all season long. Almost Oscar nominees Caitriona Balfe, Ann Dowd, and Ruth Negga can’t entirely be counted out, though. In the end, I expect DeBose continue her streak, but watch out for Buckley for the steal.
Peter J. Patrick: Ruth Negga would be my choice among the nominees, so I’m going to go with her, with Jessie Buckley leading the charge of the runners-up.
Tripp Burton: The BAFTAs might make up for Balfe’s lack of an Oscar nomination, or they may just go for the favorite.
Thomas LaTourette: West Side Story is such an American story, but I still see the Brits going for Ariana DeBose.

Best Original Screenplay

Being the Ricardos
Belfast (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Belfast has a lot of nominations this year, so it is presumably the one to beat, but Licorice Pizza has done well as well. King Richard could play spoiler, but Being the Ricardos and Don’t Look Up are probably just watching for the dogfight.
Peter J. Patrick: Belfast should take this one easily with Licorice Pizza the next in line.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: Belfast seems likely to triumph over the more American films here.

Best Adapted Screenplay

CODA (Tripp)
Drive My Car (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
Dune
The Lost Daughter (Thomas)
The Power of the Dog (Wesley, Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: If CODA is to become the frontrunner for the Oscar in this category, it must first overcome The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, and Drive My Car, which all seem more likely to pick up this award. British voters are closer to the foreign language market, so they may be more receptive to a Drive My Car victory, but The Power of the Dog is still barely ahead will need this prize to justify an Oscar prediction.
Peter J. Patrick: The Power of the Dog should win this one in a tight race with Drive My Car its closest competition.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: The Lost Daughter seems to be gaining more momentum right now.

Best Original Score

Being the Ricardos
Don’t Look Up
Dune (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)
The French Dispatch
The Power of the Dog (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: There are several races this year that come down to a battle between Dune and The Power of the Dog. This will probably be the closest competition, just ahead of Best Cinematography. Dune is more inventive, but anyone who’s seen The Power of the Dog will appreciate how vital and impressive Jonny Greenwood’s score is. This could point us towards Oscar’s eventual outcome.
Peter J. Patrick: This one is a close call between The Power of the Dog and Dune.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: Dune has slightly more precursors than The Power of the Dog, though this should be one more for Hans Zimmer.

Best Editing

Belfast (Peter)
Dune (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)
Licorice Pizza
No Time to Die (RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) (RU:Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: The Power of the Dog made it in at the Oscars over Summer of Soul, but not here. Dune might then be the runaway favorite to win, but with Summer of Soul nominated, it’s possible that a surprise victory could be at hand.
Peter J. Patrick: This one is probably a close call between Belfast and Dune with Belfast prevailing.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: Dune should best No Time to Die.

Best Cinematography

Dune (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)
Nightmare Alley
No Time to Die (RU:Tripp)
The Power of the Dog (Peter, RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
The Tragedy of Macbeth

Wesley Lovell: There are really only two contenders for this award: Dune and The Power of the Dog. As with the Oscars, it’s all going to come down to whichever drab, barren environment is better appreciated. Of course, if they want to go more vibrant, then Nightmare Alley could be a spoiler.
Peter J. Patrick: This one should be shootout between The Power of the Dog and Dune with The Power of the Dog taking it.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: Dune will probably triumph over The Power of the Dog.

Best Production Design

Cyrano
Dune (Tripp, Thomas, RU:Wesley)
The French Dispatch (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Nightmare Alley (Wesley, Peter, RU:Thomas)
West Side Story

Wesley Lovell: I’ve long doubted Dune‘s dominance of this category and the ADG awards didn’t change that opinion. The first thing everyone talked about when they saw Nightmare Alley was its incredible production design. For Dune, it was the visual effects. As such, while I think Dune has potential in this category, this is Guillermo Del Toro’s film’s award to lose.
Peter J. Patrick: Nightmare Alley should win this one, but the inventive The French Dispatch could provide an upset.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: Dune may beat out the more American Nightmare Alley.

Best Costume Design

Cruella (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
Cyrano (Tripp, RU:Peter)
Dune (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
The French Dispatch
Nightmare Alley (RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Cruella and Dune both one at CDG. Those two films also seem to be prime contenders here. Cruella was the film I initially thought was sure to win this award when I saw its first trailer. Dune has emerged as a major contender for that honor, but I think, in the end, the film ostensibly about fashion is more likely to triumph. Watch out for Cyrano, which had tons of older period costumes and could play spoiler against those two films.
Peter J. Patrick: Could be any of them, but I suspect it will be Cruella over Cyrano.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: Cruella should take this easily.

Best Makeup & Hair

Cruella (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Cyrano
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Wesley, Peter, Thomas)
House of Gucci (Tripp, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: With no Coming 2 America on deck, I imagine this will come down to The Eyes of Tammy Faye and her decades of garish makeup and hair styles or Cruella‘s dazzling hair styles. Don’t count out Dune, though. If it’s going to come back from its MUAHS drubbing, it will be here.
Peter J. Patrick: The Eyes of Tammy Faye is the most obvious choice here, with House of Gucci its toughest competition.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: The Eyes of Tammy Faye just feels like it should win.

Best Sound

Dune (Wesley, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Peter)
Last Night in Soho
No Time to Die (RU:Tripp)
A Quiet Place Part II (RU:Wesley)
West Side Story (Peter, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Dune seems like the odds-on favorite here, but I could see them going with almost any of the others as well just to spread the love.
Peter J. Patrick: Probably the musical remake of West Side Story over remake of the futuristic Dune.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: Dune to win, if not then they will go for a musical.

Best Special Visual Effects

Dune (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Free Guy (RU:Wesley)
Ghostbusters: Afterlife
The Matrix Resurrections (RU:Tripp)
No Time to Die (RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Dune has been the frontrunner since before anyone even saw the film and so far, nothing has stood in its way.
Peter J. Patrick: This should be an easy win for Dune with No Time to Die in the spoiler position.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: I expect Dune to win.

Best Film Not in the English Language

Drive My Car (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
The Hand of God
Parallel Mothers
Petite Maman
The Worst Person in the World (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Drive My Car has the most nominations outside of this category, but The Worst Person in the World has a few as well. It won’t be much of a competition, but you have to pick a runner-up.
Peter J. Patrick: An easy win for Drive My Car with The Worst Person in the World a longshot upset.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: Drive My Car is winning everywhere else, so I think it will here too.

Best Documentary

Becoming Cousteau
Cow
Flee (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
The Rescue
Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) (Peter, Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: This is where Summer of Soul‘s season of dominance ends. The ostensibly American work faces off against more international affairs and Flee seems like just the kind of contender to upset in this race.
Peter J. Patrick: Summer of Soul will likely prevail here over Flee.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: I am thinking that Summer of Soul may just be too American for them, so Flee may sneak out a win.

Best Casting

Boiling Point
Dune (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)
The Hand of God
King Richard (RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
West Side Story (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: This isn’t a very old category, so it’s hard to guess where they are going to go with this. They clearly didn’t recognize the best ensembles as neither Belfast nor The Power of the Dog were nominated. Among these, the largest cast was West Side Story while Dune had the most eclectic ensemble.
Peter J. Patrick: Once again, the remake of West Side Story over the remake of Dune, but it’ll be close.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: West Side Story has a large and diverse cast, and I could see it taking this award.

Best British Short Animation

Affairs of the Art (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Do Not Feed the Pigeons (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Night of the Living Dead

Wesley Lovell: Affairs of the Art is the only Oscar nominee on the list, so that’s my prediction. The rest is just a guess.
Peter J. Patrick: No idea, this one’s pure guesswork.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: I will go with the Oscar nominee, even though I did not like it very much.

Best British Short Film

The Black Cop (Peter, Tripp)
Femme (RU:Tripp)
The Palace
Stuffed (RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Three Meetings of the Extraordinary Committee (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: With no Oscar nominees, I fall back on my typical prediction pattern in these cases: best titles.
Peter J. Patrick: Again, no idea, another guess.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: I am going with the best title.

Rising Star Award

Ariana DeBose (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Harris Dickinson (RU:Wesley)
Lashana Lynch
Millicent Simmonds (RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
Kodi Smit-McPhee (RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: This award is voted on by the public. That’s why I think Ariana DeBose has this one fairly secure. None of the others are really in any broadly seen films this year. Harris Dickinson and Millicent Simmonds probably lay claim to this distinction among the rest, so either could possibly win as well.
Peter J. Patrick: This is where Ariana DeBose should win, leaving supporting actress to someone else.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: Ariana DeBose made quite an impact in West Side Story, so I could see her winning.

Best British Film

After Love
Ali & Ava
Belfast (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Boiling Point
Cyrano
Everybody’s Talking About Jamie
House of Gucci
Last Night in Soho
No Time to Die (RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Passing (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter)

Wesley Lovell: There’s only one Best Picture nominee on this list, making Belfast the undoubted leader. As for runner-up? Who really knows. Some of these seem too obscure, some too divisive. Ultimately, I went with Passing, but could see Cyrano or No Time to Die as well.
Peter J. Patrick: Belfast should win this easily but Passing would make a lovely surprise winner.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: BAFTA did not show a lot of love to Belfast in other nominations, but this seems like a place they would honor it.

Outstanding British Debut

Aleem Khan – After Love
James Cummings, Hester Ruoff – Boiling Point (RU:Tripp)
Jeymes Samuel – The Harder They Fall (RU:Wesley, RU:Peter, RU:Thomas)
Posy Dixon, Liv Proctor – Keyboard Fantasies
Rebecca Hall – Passing (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: This is hard to say. Rebecca Hall is probably the best known name on this list. Beyond that, I could see almost any of them winning.
Peter J. Patrick: Rebecca Hall should be an easy winner with Jeymes Samuel her likeliest runner-up.
Tripp Burton: (no commentary provided)
Thomas LaTourette: I am going with the two movies I have heard of, and out of those I have heard more about Passing.