The DGA could well be the best barometer for how the late Oscar race is going. That’s not just true of Best Directing, but also Best Picture where the frontrunner race has been a touch up in the air. Still, it could also tell us nothing. We will have to see.

DIRECTORS GUILD OF AMERICA AWARDS

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh – Belfast (RU:Peter)
Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Steven Spielberg – West Side Story (RU:Tripp, RU:Thomas)
Denis Villeneuve – Dune (RU:Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: Jane Campion has been leading this race all season long and I cannot see them ignoring her. Denis Villeneuve, although not nominated at the Oscars, is still the most likely to win if Campion doesn’t. Directors know better than anyone else how difficult it is to pull all the disparate pieces of a film together into a cohesive vision and Villeneuve would be an excellent representation of that.
Peter J. Patrick: Jane Campion is on a roll. Kenneth Branagh is overdue, but this just isn’t his year. None of the others are likely.
Tripp Burton: This is Campion’s year, and nothing is going to stop her.
Thomas LaTourette: If anyone but Jane Campion wins, it will be a huge upset.

Best First Feature

Maggie Gyllenhaal – The Lost Daughter (Peter, Tripp, Thomas, RU:Wesley)
Rebecca Hall – Passing (RU:Peter)
Tatiana Huezo – Prayers for the Stolen
Lin-Manuel Miranda – tick, tick…BOOM! (Wesley, RU:Thomas)
Michael Sarnoski – Pig
Emma Seligman – Shiva Baby (RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: Ultimately, I think it comes down to difficulty and I could imagine the directors going for Lin-Manuel Miranda for the challenge of directing a musical. It could also go to Maggie Gyllenhaal or Rebecca Hall, but I suspect Miranda might be the more likely pick here.
Peter J. Patrick: Maggie Gyllenhaal is also on a roll. Rebecca Hall is another strong actress turned director contender, but Gyllenhaal has it in the bag.
Tripp Burton: Maggie Gyllenhaal feels like a lock here, but this category has had its fair surprises in the past with snubs for big names.
Thomas LaTourette: I liked tick, tick…Boom! better, but The Lost Daughter is the movie more people are talking about, so I expect Maggie Gyllenhaal to win.

Best Documentary Director

Jessica Kingdon – Ascension (RU:Peter)
Stanley Nelson – Attica
Raoul Peck – Exterminate All the Brutes
Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson – Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) (Wesley, Peter, Thomas, RU:Tripp)
Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Jimmy Chin – The Rescue (Tripp, RU:Wesley, RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson has his best shot at victory with this group, though they aren’t always keen to honor the most celebrated documentary of the year. The Rescue seemed like it might have been the next biggest challenge, but the others are also possible victors. This is the category I’m least confident in.
Peter J. Patrick: Summer of Soul is beloved, making Questlove a likely winner. Ascension is the best known of the other contenders but none of them have a chance.
Tripp Burton: Summer of Soul has been sweeping these awards, but might The Rescue feel a bit more “directed?”
Thomas LaTourette: Summer of Soul has won by far the most precursors, so I am sure it will pick up this one too.