The art directors give out awards in four categories, but the period and fantasy ones are the ones that best align with the Oscars’ Production Design category.

ART DIRECTORS GUILD AWARDS

Best Period Art Direction

The French Dispatch (Peter)
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley (Wesley, Thomas, RU:Peter, RU:Tripp)
The Tragedy of Macbeth (RU:Thomas)
West Side Story (Tripp, RU:Wesley)

Wesley Lovell: Three of these titles were nominated for the Oscars and I see Nightmare Alley ahead of West Side Story.
Peter J. Patrick: Nightmare Alley was the truest to its period, but The French Dispatch‘s meticulously designed sets are even more memorable, which gives them the upper hand.
Tripp Burton: In a battle of the Best Picture nominees, my guess is the surging West Side Story triumphs over Nightmare Alley.
Thomas LaTourette: Nightmare Alley, The Tragedy of Macbeth, and West Side Story all had stellar sets, so hopefully the winner comes from those three, though the droll work of The French Dispatch could prove a contender. I’ll give the edge to Nightmare Alley with Macbeth close behind.

Best Fantasy Art Direction

Cruella (RU:Peter)
Dune (Wesley, Peter, Tripp, Thomas)
Ghostbusters: Afterlife
The Green Knight (RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (RU:Thomas)

Wesley Lovell: Dune has little competition here, though The Green Knight is the most likely to give it trouble.
Peter J. Patrick: I think Dune is without peer here, with Cruella a longshot runner-up.
Tripp Burton: Dune is a powerhouse in the tech categories this year, and as the only Oscar nominee here, will certainly win.
Thomas LaTourette: Dune seems likely to win the Oscar, so I assume it will triumph here as well.

Best Contemporary Art Direction

Candyman
Don’t Look Up (Peter, Tripp, RU:Thomas)
In the Heights (Wesley, RU:Peter)
The Lost Daughter
No Time to Die (Thomas, RU:Wesley, RU:Tripp)

Wesley Lovell: On this one, I had to go with a gut feeling. In the Heights had so many colorful locales that required intense work while the others seemed less expansive. I could certainly be wrong, though.
Peter J. Patrick: Don’t Look Up seems to have the most sets, which probably gives it an edge over In the Heights and the other contenders.
Tripp Burton: The sprawling military sets of Don’t Look Up are probably in the lead here, but Bond films always impress.
Thomas LaTourette: Both No Time to Die and Don’t Look Up have the largest number of sets, so I think one of them will win, with the over-the-top island missile base of No Time to Die besting the others.

Best Animation Art Direction

Encanto (Wesley, Peter, Thomas, RU:Tripp)
Luca (RU:Peter)
The Mitchells vs. the Machines (RU:Thomas)
Raya and the Last Dragon (Tripp, RU:Wesley)
Sing 2

Wesley Lovell: Encanto is a visual feast with Raya and the Last Dragon having a nice, varied palette that could shake up the conversation.
Peter J. Patrick: Story-wise I think Luca is the one to beat, but the busier, more popular Encanto is the one that’s most likely to take it.
Tripp Burton: Raya is probably the most physically striking film here, but Encanto is winning everything it seems.
Thomas LaTourette: With its art direction mostly being the house, Encanto might not win, but I could see it prevailing over the fishing village of Luca or the modern-day Mitchells.