For our seventh Rundown article, screen test some Supporting Actor predictions. After the jump, you’ll find our winner and runner-up predictions for Best Supporting Actor as well as general commentary about the race. Next week, we’ll start off on Monday with Supporting Actress.

Best Supporting Actor

Winner Predictions

• Ciaran Hinds – Belfast
• Troy Kotsur – CODA (WL R) [New] (TB R) [New] (TL R) [New]
• Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog
• J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos
• Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog (PP O)

Runner-Up Predictions

• Ciaran Hinds – Belfast (WL O) (PP O)
• Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog (TB R) [New] (TL R) [New]

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Wesley Lovell: Did SAG forecast a shift in direction from Kodi Smit-McPhee or Ciaran Hinds to Troy Kotsur? I’m not so sure. Only two Oscar nominees were on the SAG list of contenders: Smit-McPhee and Kotsur. Hinds wasn’t nominated, nor was Jesse Plemons, who both managed to make the cut at BAFTA, leaving Oscar nominee J.K. Simmons, the lone actor not on deck at BAFTA. We may not know for sure if Kotsur is a thing until BAFTA weighs in. If they go with Kotsur, the Oscar race is probably over. If they go with Hinds, or especially Smit-McPhee, then Kotsur’s current lead may be ephemeral. It’s possible, even probable, that Australian Smit-McPhee will lose at BAFTA to Belfast native Hinds. Right now, I wonder if sentimentality will lift Kotsur to victory at the Oscars regardless of what happens at BAFTA. We’ll just have to wait and see.
Peter J. Patrick: Smit-McPhee has won the preponderance of the precursors and deserves to win. However, if the Academy does its usual thing and goes for the veteran character actor over the upcoming young star, Ciaran Hinds should be the go-to guy.
Tripp Burton: This has become quite the bizarre category this year, and in surprising ways. For a lot of critics season, Smit-McPhee has seemed like the eventual winner, sweeping critics prizes in a Best Picture frontrunner that outperformed nomination morning. Troy Kotsur, a two-time SAG winner last weekend for CODA, has been gaining momentum, though, and is the best chance to honor a film people clearly love.
Thomas La Tourrette: This race has seen three different frontrunners over time. Originally Ciaran Hinds was thought to be the sentimental choice for his work in Belfast. He has been in film for years and had never received an Oscar nomination before this. But Belfast and Hinds have both faded from the conversation and seem to have little chance of winning. Then Kodi Smit-McPhee charged to the front of the line for his interesting take as the son in The Power of the Dog. Even when Jesse Plemons, who plays his stepfather in the movie, was also nominated as supporting actor ,which could lead to a split vote, it seemed that he had a lock on the Oscar. Then the SAG award went to Troy Kotsur for CODA, and I now think he will be the one collecting the Oscar. He and Marlee Matlin were memorable as the deaf parents of a hearing child. She was the only deaf actress who was nominated for and won an Oscar. Now it looks like he will be the first male actor to win, as well as being the only one ever nominated. It will be a tight race, and either could win, but right now I think that Kotsur will likely triumph. Neither Plemons nor J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos) have ever seemed strong possibilities and should be content with their nominations. Hinds could still make a comeback, especially if he triumphs at the BAFTAs, but that seems unlikely. This is a close race and could go either way, but I will guess that Kotsur will be the winner.

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