The nominations have been announced and it’s now time for our prognosticators to take a stab at winner predictions. Here are our first thoughts on the race as it stands. We’ll dig into more depth in our Rundown Series. (Editor’s Note: Thomas’ commentary has been added.)

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Introductions

Wesley Lovell: I said most of what I had to say yesterday. These predictions are almost exactly as they were on my predictions page prior to nominations. I’ve just added the runners-up and ranked them on my current full predictions, which you can find linked to on the right-hand side of the page.
Peter J. Patrick: The film with the most nominations doesn’t always win, but this year I think that The Power of the Dog with its 12 nominations will be the big winner, taking home 9 Oscars. The second most nominated film, Dune with its 10 nominations will take home the second most awards – 2.
Tripp Burton: Not provided at time of posting.
Thomas LaTourette: As always, the Academy made some interesting choices which throws us prognosticators into confusion. By giving 12 nominations to The Power of the Dog, it does seem to have set that up as the prohibitive favorite. Most were expected, but sound and costume design nominations shows it has strong support in the technical side, and a second nom for supporting actor shows it will be a formidable competitor. It was not my favorite movie of the year, but it looks to win prestige awards of picture, director, supporting actor and adapted screenplay. With 10 noms, Dune might have seemed poised to compete for best picture, but without a corresponding nod for best director, it really has no chance of that. After two years of the pandemic, voters might want something cheerier to award, which might put CODA, Belfast or King Richard into play. King Richard was the only one of those to have a film editing nomination, which is usually needed for a best picture win, so that may have knocked the other two out of the running. Not necessarily, but it will be harder for them to win. West Side Story was missing that as well as a screenplay nom, so its chances are pretty minimal for winning, though I was pleased that it got a directing nom for Steven Spielberg.

Drive My Car surprised by showing up for best picture and director. It is getting more common for foreign language films to do this, so we should not be so surprised anymore, but I still was not expecting it. Talk about peaking at the right time. Nightmare Alley was also not one I expected to be in the running, but the stylish film noir deserved the nomination. Animated feature went as expected with Encanto the likely winner. Will Smith seems the likely winner for King Richard, though he has felt like a bit of a weak forerunner all season, but I am not sure who might pass him at this point. Best actress has turned into a free for all with the exclusion of Lady Gaga. She was the only one who had made it onto all the shortlists, so was now starting to look like the strongest candidate. Kristen Stewart had long been the expected front runner for her portrayal of Princess Diana, but not making the SAG or BAFTA lists hurt her chances considerably, and I did not really expect her to be here. She might still win on her first nomination, though I would think that either Nicole Kidman or Olivia Colman to pick up a second statuette instead. Ariana DeBose remains the frontrunner for supporting actress for her fiery portrayal of Anita in West Side Story. Kodi Smit-McPhee still stands the strongest chance to win for The Power of the Dog, though the inclusion of costar Jesse Plemons could dilute the vote, so either Troy Kotsur from CODA or Ciaran Hinds from Belfast might sneak in a win, perhaps the only ones for either movie.

Flee made history for its hat trick of nominations for animated, international and documentary films. It would be nice to see it win in one of those categories, but I doubt it will. Kenneth Branagh added two more categories to his list of nominations, original screenplay and producer. He has now been nominated in seven different categories, the most of any person, but has yet to win in any, and that streak is likely to continue this year. The international film roster surprisingly did not include A Hero which might have gotten its director his third Oscar. They do often omit an expected nominee. Bhutan’s Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom was a surprise nominee instead. It is only their second entrant to the Oscars, and its first nominee. The well received The Rescue had been a presumed nominee for documentary feature, though perhaps its use of recreated scenes kept it out of the running. That means Summer of Soul is the likely winner, though the Academy has not always been fond of docs merely using old footage. It was nice to see West Side Story, Nightmare Alley and The Tragedy of MacBeth do well in some of the tech categories, for they really did deserve those noms. They will probably all lose to Dune, but it was good to see that their stellar cinematography, sets and (for two) costumes were rewarded. It’s a pity none got noms for adapted screenplay, but there just was not room for all. Probably the most surprising omission in screenplay was the exclusion of Being the Ricardos. Aaron Sorkin may have directed three people to acting nominaions, but he was not cited for either writing or directing the film.

Best Picture

• Belfast
• CODA
• Don’t Look Up
• Drive My Car
• Dune
• King Richard
• Licorice Pizza
• Nightmare Alley
• The Power of the Dog (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• West Side Story

Runners Up

• Belfast (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]

Best Animated Feature

• Encanto (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Flee
• Luca
• The Mitchells vs. the Machines
• Raya and the Last Dragon

Runners Up

• Flee (PP O) [New]
• The Mitchells vs. the Machines (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]

Best Directing

• Belfast – Kenneth Branagh
• Drive My Car – Ryusuke Hamaguchi
• Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson
• The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• West Side Story – Steven Spielberg

Runners Up

Best Actor

• Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos
• Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New]
• Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM!
• Will Smith – King Richard (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth

Runners Up

• Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM! (PP O) [New]
• Will Smith – King Richard (WL O) [New]

Best Actress

• Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
• Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New]
• Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers (TB O) [New]
• Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos (TL O) [New]
• Kristen Stewart – Spencer

Runners Up

• Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PP O) [New]
• Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos (TB O) [New]
• Kristen Stewart – Spencer (WL O) [New](TL O) [New]

Best Supporting Actor

• Ciaran Hinds – Belfast
• Troy Kotsur – CODA
• Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog
• J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos
• Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]

Runners Up

• Ciaran Hinds – Belfast (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New]
• Troy Kotsur – CODA (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]

Best Supporting Actress

• Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter
• Ariana DeBose – West Side Story (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Judi Dench – Belfast
• Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog (PP O) [New]
• Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard

Runners Up

• Judi Dench – Belfast (PP O) [New]
• Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog (WL O) [New](TL O) [New]
• Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard (TB O) [New]

Best Original Screenplay

• Belfast (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New]
• Don’t Look Up
• King Richard
• Licorice Pizza (TL O) [New]
• The Worst Person in the World

Runners Up

• Belfast (TL O) [New]
• Don’t Look Up (TB O) [New]
• Licorice Pizza (WL O) [New]
• The Worst Person in the World (PP O) [New]

Best Adapted Screenplay

• CODA
• Drive My Car (TB O) [New]
• Dune
• The Lost Daughter
• The Power of the Dog (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New](TL O) [New]

Runners Up

• CODA (TL O) [New]
• Drive My Car (WL O) [New]
• The Lost Daughter (PP O) [New]
• The Power of the Dog (TB O) [New]

Best Original Score

• Don’t Look Up
• Dune (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Encanto
• Parallel Mothrs
• The Power of the Dog (PP O) [New]

Runners Up

• Dune (PP O) [New]
• The Power of the Dog (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]

Best Original Song

• Be Alive – King Richard (WL O) [New]
• Dos Oruguitas – Encanto (TB O) [New]
• Down to Joy – Belfast
• No Time to Die – No Time to Die (PP O) [New](TL O) [New]
• Somehow You Do – Four Good Days

Runners Up

• Be Alive – King Richard (PP O) [New]
• Dos Oruguitas – Encanto (TL O) [New]
• No Time to Die – No Time to Die (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New]

Best Film Editing

• Don’t Look Up
• Dune (WL O) [New](TL O) [New]
• King Richard
• The Power of the Dog (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New]
• tick, tick…BOOM!

Runners Up

• Dune (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New]
• The Power of the Dog (TL O) [New]
• tick, tick…BOOM! (WL O) [New]

Best Cinematography

• Dune (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Nightmare Alley
• The Power of the Dog (PP O) [New]
• The Tragedy of Macbeth
• West Side Story

Runners Up

• Nightmare Alley (TL O) [New]
• The Power of the Dog (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New]
• The Tragedy of Macbeth (PP O) [New]

Best Production Design

• Dune (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Nightmare Alley (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New]
• The Power of the Dog
• The Tragedy of Macbeth
• The West Side Story

Runners Up

• Dune (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New]
• Nightmare Alley (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]

Best Costume Design

• Cruella (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New]
• Cyrano
• Dune (TL O) [New]
• Nightmare Alley
• West Side Story (TB O) [New]

Runners Up

• Cruella (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Cyrano (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New]

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• Coming 2 America
• Cruella (WL O) [New]
• Dune (TB O) [New]
• The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PP O) [New](TL O) [New]
• House of Gucci

Runners Up

• Cruella (TL O) [New]
• Dune (WL O) [New]
• The Eyes of Tammy Faye (TB O) [New]
• House of Gucci (PP O) [New]

Best Sound

• Belfast
• Dune (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• No Time to Die
• The Power of the Dog
• West Side Story

Runners Up

• West Side Story (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]

Best Visual Effects

• Dune (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Free Guy
• No Time to Die
• Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
• Spider-Man: No Way Home

Runners Up

• Free Guy (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New]
• Spider-Man: No Way Home (PP O) [New](TL O) [New]

Best International Feature Film

• Drive My Car (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Flee
• The Hand of God
• Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
• The Worst Person in the World

Runners Up

• Flee (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Worst Person in the World (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New]

Best Documentary Feature

• Ascension
• Attica
• Flee (PP O) [New]
• Summer of Soul (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• Writing with Fire

Runners Up

• Flee (WL O) [New](TL O) [New]
• Summer of Soul (PP O) [New]
• Writing with Fire (TB O) [New]

Best Documentary Short Subject

• Audible
• Lead Me Home
• The Queen of Basketball (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New]
• Three Songs for Benazir (TL O) [New]
• When We Were Bullies

Runners Up

• Audible (TB O) [New]
• The Queen of Basketball (TL O) [New]
• When We Were Bullies (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New]

Best Animated Short Film

• Affairs of the Art (TB O) [New]
• Bestia
• Boxballet (WL O) [New]
• Robin Robin
• The Windshield Wiper (PP O) [New](TL O) [New]

Runners Up

• Boxballet (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New]
• Robin Robin (PP O) [New](TL O) [New]

Best Live-Action Short Film

• Ala Kachuu – Take and Run
• The Dress
• The Long Goodbye (WL O) [New] (PP O) [New] (TB O) [New] (TL O) [New]
• On My Mind
• Please Hold

Runners Up

• On My Mind (WL O) [New] (TB O) [New]
• Please Hold (PP O) [New] (TL O) [New]