As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

This week with all of the guilds announcing nominations (except the Screen Actors Guild who already had), it’s a very interesting week to be a prognosticator because some things came into perfect focus while others refused to. Rather than breaking this down solely into winners and losers, I’m adding question marks. The winners had a great week. The losers had a terrible week. The question marks had both good and back this week, which will be interesting to dissect going into the final week before Oscar nominations and with BAFTA right around the corner.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 10 (Tue.-Mon.)

Tuesday, Feb. 1 – British Academy (Rising Star) (Nominations) (Official)
Tuesday, Feb. 1 – Academy Awards Nominations Voting Ends (Official)
Thursday, Feb. 3 – British Academy (Nominations) (Official)
Friday, Feb. 4 – Film Music Critics (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Saturday, Feb. 5 – Publicists (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Sunday, Feb. 6 – London Critics (Awards) (Official)
Sunday, Feb. 6 – Online Film & TV Association (Nominations) (Official)
Tuesday, Feb. 8 – Razzies (Nominations) (Official)
Tuesday, Feb. 8 – Academy Awards Nominations (Official)
Saturday, Feb. 12 – Goya Awards (Awards) (Official)
Friday, Feb. 18 – Film Music Critics (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Saturday, Feb. 19 – Make-Up Artists Guild (Awards) (Official)
Tuesday, Feb. 22 – GALECA (Nominations) (Official)
Saturday, Feb. 26 – Annie Awards (Awards) (Official)
Saturday, Feb. 26 – Cinema Editors (Awards) (Official)
Saturday, Feb. 26 – Cesar Awards (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Saturday, Feb. 26 – NAACP Image Awards (Awards) (Official)
Saturday, Feb. 26 – USC Scripter (Awards) (Official)
Sunday, Feb. 27 – Screen Actors (Awards) (Official)
Monday, Feb. 28 – Hollywood Critics (Awards) (Official)
Monday, Feb. 28 – Bodil Awards (Awards) (Unconfirmed)

Big Winners

Dune had the best week of the lot picking up nine nominations, one from each of the guilds that announced. The DGA (Directors) and WGA (Writers) were most important, but never underestimate the need of that ACE (Editors) nomination.
The Power of the Dog also had a good week picking up all of its expected citations: DGA, PGA (Producers), ACE, and ASC (Cinematographers). It didn’t place with either the CDG (Costume Designers) or ADG (Art Directors), but it wasn’t expected to. Nor did it get a WGA nomination, mostly because it was ineligible. So, everywhere we expected to see it, we did.
Licorice Pizza nabbed crucial nominations from the DGA, PGA, WGA & ACE. It got an ADG nomination, but not a CDG, which could be concerning, but probably shouldn’t be read into.
West Side Story picked up nominations from the DGA, PGA & WGA, all of which were crucial. It didn’t get the ACE nomination, which is a bit troubling and way well push it out of competition for winning Best Picture at the Oscars. Beyond that, it got in at CDG & ADG as well as the CAS (Audio Society), all of which are good signs.
Belfast got in at DGA & PGA, which was important and it survived to see nominations from the ACE & ASC, but with MPSE (Sound Editors) being the only other citation, that could definitely spell doom for the film.

Big Question Marks

Being the Ricardos got the uncertain PGA nomination, which helps it most, but with only the WGA nomination to support it, the film might not be performing well, especially since nominations from ADG & CDG could have happened, and it didn’t get anything from ACE or ASC. The DGA was not expected, but getting only two total nominations isn’t a good sign, though it might be enough for it to stay in the Best Picture race.
Don’t Look Up got crucial nominations from PGA, WGA & ACE. With DGA unlikely, the film really didn’t have a lot of other options this week. This likely keeps it in the conversation for Best Picture even in spite of middling critical response.
King Richard might have needed something more than the PGA, WGA & ACE, both those citations are especially good for a film that wasn’t likely to place with the craft guild. Sure a DGA or ASC mention would have been helpful, but it’s not all doom and gloom for the film.
tick, tick…BOOM! entered the season as a minor contender, but critics managed to boost its profile and it ultimately picked up three very important nominations: PGA, ACE & WGA. It even made the first feature slate at the DGA. Those four alone make it a real threat for a nomination. The only place it really should have appeared that it didn’t was the CAS, but it wasn’t essential.
CODA had few prospects going into the guild week and it picked up two important ones: PGA & WGA. Nothing from ACE or DGA, but those were far from expected. It’s a good sign for the film, but an ultimately uncertain one.
Nightmare Alley took six nominations from nine guilds. That’s excellent work for a film that was trailing with critics. It’s also better than all but three of the entries in the prior section. The problem is that the three it missed were probably its most important: PGA, DGA & ACE. Other than the WGA and ASC, getting into the other four guilds was largely expected. The WGA & ASC citations certainly up the film’s profile, but not likely enough to hold it over to a Best Picture nomination, though it’s still a faint possibility.
The French Dispatch was considered by most critics as minor Wes Anderson and it really needed a strong showing to keep going. It partly got that with nominations from ACE & WGA, but its only other mention was from the ADG and that’s not really enough. CDG, ASC & DGA should all have been citing it if it were a major contender, but not only did it missed those, it missed the absolutely make-or-break PGA nomination. That pretty much assures it’s not making the final cut.

Big Losers

Spider-Man: No Way Home wouldn’t have been in the Best Picture conversation three months ago, but its tremendous box office achievement made it into a possibility. That was until the guilds dampened the enthusiasm. Other than CDG, CAS and MPSE, it got no guild citations. The PGA was the most important as they have, in the past, given their nominations to prominent blockbusters, but even Spidey couldn’t make it there and if it can’t make it with the box office conscious, it’s not going to make it with the Academy.
The Tragedy of Macbeth broke very late in the season and has mostly received praise from critics, but with its most prominent citation being from ASC, its best Oscar chances have pretty much been dashed, though Denzel Washington is still a likely Best Actor nominee. The won’t make many in-roads with the upper tier categories, though.
Cyrano also broke late and while some critics were effusive with praise, the film has struggle to gain traction this Oscar season. The SAG (Actors) miss was a red flag, but the film picking up one of nine guilds and that being the CDG, its chances are almost dead in the water. Peter Dinklage could still come back, but it’s looking more likely that this will be an Oscar flop.
The Green Knight was well liked by critics and picked up countless nominations and wins, but the guilds weren’t as impressed, nominating it only twice, once at ADG and once at CDG. That’s not a profile for a cross-over hit. I might even hazard a guess that it comes up empty-handed when nominations are announced next week.
House of Gucci got the ever crucial SAG nominations, but when this week’s nine announced, it was largely unrepresented. DGA, PGA, WGA, and ACE were all crucial to its chances, but not only did it fail to make it with those, it made only a single dent in the nomination count and that was at CDG, which can always be expected to recognize costumes for a film about the fashion industry, even tangentially. That alone should pretty much kill House of Gucci‘s chances.