Every year, I try to decide if I want to stick to my tradition or go in a new direction. At over 6,000 words last year, and with very little time left this year (I had dueling obligations between the OFTA and sickness), I’ve had to consider what’s best for me and for you. That many words is hard to read and I suspect no one even bothers, skipping ahead to the predictions. As such, I’m going to pare down this year’s post a bit. I’ll still try to give my analysis of each category, but I’m not going to focus on the order of announcement and its meaning for later races. That doesn’t apply in the Best Picture discussion, where I will still try to look at each contender as a product of what came before.

Further, I have also decided to eliminate my traditional PDF of nominees for checking-off purposes. It was a time consuming effort that I doubt many people used. You can still print out my hopefuls page and mark off as we go, but you’ll be on your own for the first time. If there’s a broad consensus that it’s missed, I’ll consider doing it again next year.

Having said all that, before I get into the nitty gritty, let’s prepare for Tuesday morning’s announcement of the 94th Annual Academy Awards Nominations.

With the morning announcement largely laid out for us and not having changed much in the last couple of years, I feel comfortable in sticking very closely to the announced list of categories, placements, and more.

Based on the Academy’s press release, the category breakdown will be as follows. Though, it should be noted that they’ve specifically changed up this order two years in a row, so take some of the category placements with a teaspoon of salt.

Group 1 (alphabetical order):

• Actor in a Supporting Role
• Actress in a Supporting Role
• Animated Short Film
• Costume Design
• Live Action Short Film
• Music (Original Score)
• Sound
• Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
• Writing (Original Screenplay)

Group 2 (alphabetical order):

• Actor in a Leading Role
• Actress in a Leading Role
• Animated Feature Film
• Best Picture
• Cinematography
• Directing
• Documentary Feature
• Documentary Short Subject
• Film Editing
• International Feature Film
• Makeup and Hairstyling
• Music (Original Song)
• Production Design
• Visual Effects

They have not announced a more specific category announcement order, so the information below will be ordered in reverse order of importance.

Below, embedded in this article, is a video where you can watch the announcement streamed live starting at 5:18am PST / 7:18am CST / 8:18am EST / 1:18pm GMT / 9:18pm China for Group 1 and 5:31am PST / 7:31am CST / 8:31am EST / 1:31pm GMT / 9:31pm China for Group 2.

To find my Hopefuls list without the commentary, click here: listed as Hopefuls.

Don’t miss all of Cinema Sight’s contributors and their thoughts alongside mine in today’s other post: final nominations predictions post.

Without knowing how they will make the announcements and in what order, the below may be a bit arbitrary. At the end of each category, there’s a short, alphabetized list in the order the nominations would be announced so you can quickly look over the order in a small space. Traditionally, the nominations had been announced in alphabetical order by film title in all except the acting categories, which will be ordered by last name.

Group 1

Best Animated Short Film

For the categories that almost feel like a crap shoot some years, I’m just going to list out the shortlisted films and why I selected the ones I did. Here in Animated Short Film, the submissions were:

Affairs of the Art, Angakusajaujuq: The Shaman’s Apprentice, Bad Seeds, Bestia, Boxballet, Flowing Home, Mum is Pouring Rain, The Musician, Namoo, Only a Child, Robin Robin, Souvenir Souvenir, Step Into the River, Us Again, and The Windshield Wiper.

My way of choosing these is to look at subject matter and while all topics are important, certain ones tend to resonate more with Oscar voters. I chose Us Again for its look back at young love through the experiences of an elderly couple with an intriguing concept at its heart. I picked Bad Seeds because it sounded liked a very creative and elaborate effort with lots of potential political commentary. With Mum Is Pouring Rain, it’s about a young girl exploring the world around her while her mother battles depression. The potential for heart-warming results is what put it on my list. We’ve seen similar shorts in the past, but they often produce amazing results, which is why Souvenir Souvenir ended up on my list for its look at the Algerian War through a grandson’s filmmaking lens. The potentially most controversial title on the list is Step Into the River, which highlights the haunting nature of China’s one-child policy.

I don’t often make much out of these categories because voters who vote each year seem to be different banks every time, which makes it difficult to say one thing will get in over another.

Best Live Action Short Film

The shortlisters this year are: Ala Kachuu – Take and Run, Censor of Dreams, The Criminals, Distances, The Dress, Frimas, Les Grandes Claques, The Long Goodbye, On My Mind, Please Hold, Stenofonen, Tala’vision, Under the Heavens, When the Sun Sets, You’re Dead Helen.

My choices are: Tala’vision because of its tackling of a war-set story and the freedom found within the programs on a forbidden television screen, which sounds like a emotionally-charged effort. Censor of Dreams leans on the creativity heavy with the notion of dream shapers. Frimas tackles the notion of abortion in a near future where such practices are deemed illegal. Can’t be a more poignant or relevant topic than that. Another film with heavy political connotations, The Long Goodbye has an intriguing concept and could be too fitting for today’s world. Lastly, When the Sun Sets looks at Apartheid South Africa and the dangers of a young nurse when her brother doesn’t return home from school.

This list is more overtly political than the last and outside of Documentary Short Subject, it’s one of the more heavily political of categories.

Best Sound

Now to the categories that feature more accessible features and which have plenty of guild results to bolster our understanding of them. How I’ve decided to handle this is to list the titles I think are pretty well assured of spots, those that are fighting for the final few slots, and then the ones that are struggling against a tide of bad news in recent weeks. Or something of that kind.

The biggest surprise here would be if Dune, the presumptive frontrunner for the Oscar didn’t get a nomination. West Side Story also seems like a solid bet, but I wouldn’t guarantee any of the other three slots.

The films vying for those positions are Spider-Man: No Way Home, the closest of them all to being secured; No Time to Die, which has had a surprisingly strong creative push in recent weeks; A Quiet Place: Part II, which nabbed a BAFTA nomination in something of a surprise; The Matrix Resurrections seemed like a big contender at the beginning, but has been stumbling a lot in recent weeks, especially among guild voters; tick, tick…BOOM! benefits from being a musical, which some voters equate with requiring a complex aural arrangement; and Belfast, which have those conflict scenes late in the film, which could give it a boost.

The Power of the Dog was very lucky to be shortlisted and while it shows support for the film stretching beyond expected groups, I can’t really say there’s enough in the film that would warrant a pleasantly surprising nomination. The last of the shortlisted films is Last Night in Soho, which seemed to do poorly with critics, but then came back with a burst with the guilds and then at BAFTA. I think that might have been the British effect rather than an actual trend.

Best Costume Design

Cruella is an absolute lock and is the very likely winner while House of Gucci and Cyrano seem like good bets. The latter might have cratered a bit elsewhere, but it rebounded nicely at BAFTA, which means it’s probably more solid than a lot of people might think.

That leaves two slots. Dune seems like a possibility, but the drab colors might hurt its chances. That said, the film has picked up several nominations for its costumes, so any trepidation might be unwarranted. Nightmare Alley has a lot of period costumes, but the film has been struggling in recent weeks. I’m still leaning towards its inclusion, but’s certainly no slam dunk. In a perfect world, the many flowing and dingy garments worn in West Side Story would be nominated. I fear that it will be left off, but La La Land‘s inclusion in this category might suggest it’s entirely possible. Spencer was an early contender, but faded, especially after BAFTA. That said, costumes has been one of the most cited things about the film, so it could get in. Rounding out the list of potentials are The Tragedy of Macbeth and Licorice Pizza both for different reasons. Tragedy has the black-and-white effect working in its favor while Licorice has the colorful 70s designs as a boon.

The Green Knight and Last Night in Soho both have distant chances at nominations, but their weakness in general suggests they might struggle in categories that aren’t as obvious as others.

Best Original Score

It’s so much easier to know who’s contending. The shortlist gave us an interesting batch from which to choose and while several films quickly floated to the top, several sank like stones.

Dune and The Power of the Dog are two frequent titles that almost everyone loves, so I would expect to see both on the final Oscar ballot.

For the remaining three slots, there is plenty of competition from past winners and losers to a couple of newbies. The French Dispatch composer Alexandre Desplat had struggled for a few years to make an impact, but he’s seldom missed a list since, so I would expect him to make the list even if the film fails to materialize anywhere else. If Jonny Greenwood has a good year, he’ll be double nominated for Power and Spencer. This is one of the other major areas that film was frequently cited for. While either of those could fall out, I think the most likely victim here is The Tragedy of Macbeth. Although Burwell has finally gotten some attention from the Academy, the potential of nominating Alberto Iglesias for Parallel Mothers, King Richard‘s Kris Bowers, Nicholas Britell for Don’t Look Up, Daniel Pemberton for Being the Ricardos (which surprised at BAFTA) or Germaine Franco for Encanto. What might help Encanto is that some voters might be thinking of Lin-Manuel Miranda’s songs rather than Franco’s underscore, which could help it eke out a space before any of the others.

It would be interesting to see The Green Knight, The Harder They Fall, or Candyman nominated, but I’m afraid those might be pipe dreams.

Best Adapted Screenplay

No one is likely to beat out Jane Campion’s script for The Power of the Dog for the Oscar or for a nomination. West Side Story and CODA also seem like fairly safe competitors.

The last two slots are a challenge to predict because any one of seven films could nab the slot. Dune is the most likely of those titles, but a lot of people are discounting its chances due to it being a sci-fi film. If even BAFTA can nominate it, the Academy can too. Drive My Car might find its only route into the Oscars outside of Best International Feature Film in this category, which is what pushes it into slot five for my list. That said, debut filmmakers Maggie Gyllenhaal and Rebecca Hall could both make the cut with The Lost Daughter and Passing respectively. Nightmare Alley could be a surprise contender as could both The Green Knight and tick, tick…BOOM!.

The only title I see as a contender that has a lot of hurdles to overcome is Joel Coen’s script for The Tragedy of Macbeth. Getting nominated for adapting Shakespeare is always a difficult prospect, but the film’s general lack of support is the more likely reason for its doom.

Best Original Screenplay

This is probably the most solid category there is. I absolutely cannot see either Kenneth Branagh or Paul Thomas Anderson missing the ballot for Belfast and Licorice Pizza respectively. I’d also be a bit shocked if Aaron Sorkin’s Being the Ricardos and Adam McKay and David Sirota’s script for Don’t Look Up missed out.

So one slot isn’t much room to jockey and there are a half dozen titles vying for the slot. Ultimately, I put Zach Baylin’s script for King Richard on the list because there’s a notable dearth of minority representation in the screenwriting categories (and in Best Picture for that matter), so I could imagine him being a benefactor of that. That said, he has to watch out for Fran Kranz’s debut script for Mass; Pedro Almodovar’s well-received effort on Parallel Mothers; the surprise nomination of Pig, Paul Schrader’s The Card Counter is also in the running as is Asghar Farhadi for A Hero.

The remainder of films are really big long shots, but stranger things have happened. Thus C’mon C’mon, Spencer, The Harder They Fall, and The French Dispatch will all struggle.

Best Supporting Actor

This year’s top categories are more in flux than they’ve been in a long while thanks to a rather bountiful array of potential nominees. Three actors seem assured of nominations this year based on their performance thus far: Kodi Smit-McPhee, Troy Kotsur, and Ciaran Hinds. While I once thought Hinds was sure to carry the sentiment vote, his nomination felt into some doubt in recent weeks, but showing up at BAFTA certainly helped.

For the two remaining slots, I am hard-pressed to say that my guess isn’t better than anyone else’s at this point. I traded both of these slots out in the last few days and landed on Bradley Cooper on the strength of Licorice Pizza and Mike Faist on its surprise appearance at BAFTA. While it’s likely he was saved by committee, there’s been a lot of support for his nomination among vocal groups recently and I think he might just eke out a nomination. Who might beat them? Any one of a number of actors. The two actors I ultimately swapped out at the last minute were J.K. Simmons and Ben Affleck. Affleck’s star briefly rose, but has never ascended high enough to make the transition, but if Being the Ricardos does as well as I imagine it could, Simmons could be swept along. Jesse Plemons could benefit from a The Power of the Dog burst of energy while Jared Leto was an early favorite, but the flack he’s gotten for his heavily stereotyped portrayal in House of Gucci might have doomed his candidacy. If Mass does well, Jason Isaacs could be pulled along and the same is true of West Side Story‘s David Alvarez, but I expect Fiast will make it in ahead of him. Jamie Dornan could benefit from a Belfast sweep, which leaves Jeffrey Wright as the only actor with a lot of pre-nominations support who could get a nomination without having to root for a wave for his film, The French Dispatch.

Affleck could sneak in for The Last Duel instead, but that film tanked early. Colman Domingo also had early buzz for Zola, but that really hasn’t gone anywhere. Personally, I’d love to see long shot contender Robin de Jesus make it in for tick, tick…BOOM!. He managed to stay toe-to-toe with Andrew Garfield and still one-up him. No easy feat with such an ostentatious performance.

Best Supporting Actress

While Supporting Actor has a lot of people vying for a smaller number of slots, less about Supporting Actress seems stable, but there are fewer contenders. Only Ariana DeBose and Ruth Negga seem to have had staying power all season. Two of the remaining three slots very likely go to Aunjanue Ellis and Kirsten Dunst. Dunst didn’t have a good day at BAFTA, but her film has otherwise spun her into a certain nominee. Ellis benefits from having been nominated almost as often as Will Smith. Depending on how well that film does may make or break her chances.

I’d really say that last slot is the most competitive. I can see any one of five actors take it. Originally, I thought it might be Caitriona Balfe, but Belfast didn’t do as well at BAFTA, home turf, as it should have, which suggests the film might have had a rocky reception among voters. That caused me to rethink her candidacy. That said, Jessie Buckley has somehow snuck up on all of us as a dark horse contender and I am making probably my boldest prediction of the season by saying she’ll make the cut. I’m not sold on it entirely, but sometimes you have to go bold. Cate Blanchett could ride her beloved name to a nomination as could Judi Dench, but if Balfe isn’t getting nominated, Dench most likely isn’t either. If Dench isn’t getting nominated, it’s unlikely that sentiment will boost Rita Moreno into the slot, but it would be a wonderful career-capping surprise indeed. The last contender is Ann Dowd who has quietly amassed a ton of nominations this year and could well sneak into the race when she seems to keep running 6th or lower in most minds.

Distant contenders include Kathryn Hunter, but Tragedy of Macbeth is struggling; Martha Plimpton, but Dowd is getting all the attention; Diana Rigg, but Dench and Moreno are getting all the grande dame discussions to themselves; Meryl Streep, but even she can’t overcome a dearth of precursor nominations to an Oscar nod; and Gaby Hoffman, but her film C’mon C’mon never became much of anything. I’m not even sure why I left her on there.

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Group 2

Now begins Act II.

Best Documentary Short Subject

Once again, we’re back to the group of categories that I haven’t much opinion on, generally because I haven’t seen many or even any of the nominees. So, back to our prior recitation.

The shortlist is: Aguilas, Audible, A Broken House, Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis, Coded: The Hidden Love of J.C. Leyendecker, Day of Rage, The Facility, Lead Me Home, Lynching Postcards: Token of a Great Day, The Queen of Basketball, Sophie & the Baron, Takeover, Terror Contagion, Three Songs for Benazir, When We Were Bullies.

What were my choices about? The Facility looks at a no-holds-barred look inside the immigrant detention centers during the pandemic. Very political. Very Likely. A Broken House is about a Syrian architect who must rebuild his Damascus neighborhood since he’s no longer able to return home. Day of Rage might well be the most frightening of the potential nominees, but it’s very political and could be an important document of our times, which is why I think it will be nominated. Lynching Postcards takes a horrendous practice to shed light on a repugnant part of American history, which sounds like a fascinating documentary. Then there’s The Queen of Basketball, which is about an important figure in basketball history who doesn’t seem to get talked about enough, which may change with this nomination.

Best Documentary Feature

With more precursors digging into this category than the other three, I feel more comfortable highlighting what I think are the big contenders and which will struggle.

The biggest shock of the season would come if Summer of Soul isn’t nominated and I don’t think it will be ignored. I also think that The Rescue, Procession and Flee all seem pretty safe. Then again, this is Documentary feature, so shocks can occur.

The First Wave I find is the weakest on the list with any of the others possibly taking over. Ascension, The Velvet Underground, Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry, Writing with Fire, and Attica seem like the most likely.

Then again, don’t count out the rest of them: In the Same Breath, Faya Dayi, Julia, President, and Simple As Water.

Best Original Song

I can’t make much of a value judgment on these as I don’t care for most of them. Based on precursors and the acts associated with them, I think we’re likely to see three songs for sure: “Be Alive,” “No Time to Die,” and “Guns Go Bang.”

For the remaining two slots, I see six contenders. “Here I Am” has gotten enough attention to be a top choice for the category and while “Dos Oruguitas” isn’t the most popular song from Encanto, it’s a nice enough song that voters will probably go for it. “Beyond the Shore” has earned a lot of attention for CODA while “Down to Joy” benefits from being in a major Oscar contender. Oscar voters also love funny songs, so “Just Look Up” is distinctly possible with “Your Song Saved My Life” has that uplifting message a lot of songs need, but most of these songs already have.

While I’m not entirely counting out the remaining shortlisters, of them all, I honestly thing only “Right Where I Belong” could make it thanks to these voters’ predilection towards songs from documentaries. The only one of the batch could well make the cut as could any of the others in a surprise outcome.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Three films not likely to miss the list are Cruella, Dune, and The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Beyond that, the shortlist is packed with potential nominees.

House of Gucci has earned a lot of attention, mostly for Jared Leto’s makeup, but I don’t know if that will be enough for the film. Cyrano doesn’t seem to have a lot of makeup going on either, but it’s been frequently cited. Coming 2 America could be yet another in a long list of terrible comedies with tons of makeup to make the cut while The Suicide Squad could follow Suicide Squad‘s path to a surprise nomination. If one director could dominate this category, it would be Guillermo del Toro, which makes Nightmare Alley a distinct possibility while West Side Story has lots of makeup and hairstyles to provide.

The odd-man out on the list and hence the least likely to pull off a nomination is No Time to Die. Sure it has Rami Malek’s burn scars, but that isn’t enough these days for a nomination.

Best Production Design

Even while critics weren’t falling all over themselves for the film itself, the production design was getting plenty of attention. Dune is also pretty well assured a nomination and I’m going to put West Side Story on this list simply for its bountiful sets. Beyond that, I could see any one of a number of titles make the list.

Cyrano had a lot of very nice and varied sets and they played importantly in the events of the film, which could bolster its chances. The French Dispatch has the familiar Wes Anderson aesthetic as its calling card, which is why I put it in the list beating out a handful of other contenders including The Green Knight, Last Night in Soho, The Last Duel, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Licorice Pizza, and Cruella. Initially, I had thought Cruella would dominate, but it’s barely showed up. Meanwhile The Green Knight is performing poorly in most categories, but this might be its best chance. The others have various reasons that make them potential spoilers.

Belfast and House of Gucci aren’t likely to make the list, but a surge in favor of the former might bolster its chances on its confined and crucial sets.

Best Visual Effects

There is no way to make this list without Dune, so mark it down without even hearing the others. The only other film that I think seems fairly well solid is Spider-Man: No Way Home because it will be one of the few places to recognize the blockbuster of the current, albeit short, decade. Everything else should be considered fluid.

The Matrix Resurrections has a good chance of making the third slot only because the first film set the standard and while the sequels were ignored, this film brought back a lot of fond memories for people. Shang-Chi has a lot of dazzling special effects that involve dragons and waterspouts and whirlwinds of leaves and so much more. I’m barely giving Free Guy this next space only because it’s the one that has the most effects in it, though Shang-Chi might give it a run for its money. That said, I found Eternals to have some terrific effects and the same is true of Black Widow. Both could make the cut off. Ghostbusters: Afterlife and Godzilla vs. Kong have sentimentality on their side, but that might not be enough. The final contender, which takes up the remainder of the list is No Time to Die, which would be an odd choice for this nomination considering it’s the only film even remotely rooted in realism. That could be enticing, though.

Best Cinematography

This is another category that almost seems locked up. Can you imagine this list without Dune, The Power of the Dog, The Tragedy of Macbeth, or Nightmare Alley? Well, maybe not Del Toro’s film, but the other three seem unlikely to be overlooked.

That means there’s not much space left, but plenty of contenders. The two that are most likely to battle to the end for the slot are West Side Story and Belfast. I’d say Spielberg has an edge on Branagh simply because Spielberg does more with his framing than Branagh does. Of course, Licorice Pizza could surprise, though cinematographers don’t always like recognizing the directors for their input. The Green Knight would be an interesting surprise in about the only other category I could see it making in roads. Passing and Don’t Look Up could be spoilers, but I sincerely doubt either make the cut.

Personally, I think Cyrano should have been considered, but the fact that it looked so drab, a feature in my opinion, not a bug, won’t help it. Then again, the vibrant might work in the opposite direction against The French Dispatch.

Best Film Editing

In what is often considered a bellwether for Best Picture, look first to the major contenders before moving on. Dune and The Power of the Dog seem destined for citation and I really couldn’t see a film like West Side Story not making the list.

That leaves two spots and another half dozen competitors are waiting in the wings. I give the edge to Licorice Pizza because it’s been performing better than we thought all season, which could help it land a nomination here. Belfast was an early Best Picture contender, so I can imagine it making the list as well. That said, you ignore the following at your own peril: Don’t Look Up, which has proven surprisingly resilient in spite of an unimpressive receiving by critics; tick, tick…BOOM! was once thought to be a minor contender, but it’s now surprisingly strong and its editing is one of the more spectacular elements of the film itself; Nightmare Alley is also a distinct possibility; I wouldn’t count out King Richard either as sports movies often do much better in this category than expected.

I wouldn’t entirely count out CODA, House of Gucci, Cyrano, or The Tragedy of Macbeth. Of course I wouldn’t entirely count them in either.

Best Actor

If Benedict Cumberbatch or Will Smith don’t make the list, it will be a shock. I’d also be surprised not to see Denzel Washington there. While his film may not be performing well in general, he has been doing much better by comparison.

For the remaining two slots, Andrew Garfield is about as close to a lock as you can get while still being a borderline possibility. If his film really has resonated and isn’t just a surprise blip on the radar, his nomination is assured. Otherwise, who knows. I’m going to stick with the SAG citation of Javier Bardem for this one. While some believe this is a benefit of having AFTRA as members of the organization, Bardem isn’t well known for his TV work and while the film is ostensibly about TV legends, I suspect there might be more to this than meets the eye. I’m hedging my bets to put Barden into that fifth place, but I could also see it being filled by three other actors. Now that Don’t Look Up is over-performing, Leonardo DiCaprio could be in with a surprise surge for a nomination. I’m doubtful of this possibility simply because I think the other two have more ardent supporters. Peter Dinklage’s film was mishandled and has underperformed consistently. That said, Dinklage has showed up enough times, that he could be welcome nominee. Nicolas Cage, on the other hand, may well have the most bizarre trajectory to his third nomination, having taken it through a string of really bad, forgettable films. It would be the comeback of the year, but it would also be rather surprising considering his film has barely been seen and its a rather bizarre concept that might just turn off a lot of Oscar voters.

Oscar Isaac, Hidetoshi Nishijima, Mahershala Ali, Bradley Cooper, Woody Norman, and Joaquin Phoenix are also possible, but highly doubtful.

Best Actress

This category has a lot of room for surprise as we’ve constantly found this year. The only names I think are certain to appear are Olivia Colman, Nicole Kidman, and Lady Gaga, the latter of whom is the only one nominated at BAFTA…just think about that for a moment.

At one time, Jessica Chastain was thought to be a solid lock on a nomination and while she’s no longer as certain as she once was, I’m pretty sure she’s not fighting too hard for a spot. That said, the fifth spot is going to be a free for all and I don’t know if anyone could tell you now who’s going to take it. At point, Kristen Stewart seemed destined to overcome her popular roots to become an Oscar nominee, but her candidature has faded for awhile, but took a major hit when BAFTA refused to acknowledge her. Penelepe Cruz could be a solid contender for a nomination, but so far Parallel Mothers hasn’t proven to be much of a player this season. Strangely enough, I have the fifth slot going to Alana Haim. Normally, Oscar voters tend to reject musicians making movies (though Barbra Streisand, Cher, and Lady Gaga might object to that notion), but if more than 30% of the members could even tell you who the band Haim is, I’d be surprised. That might benefit her greatly as she comes in with the popular Licorice Pizza and even managed a nod at BAFTA, which is quite the feat. Of course, she could be boxed out by the aforementioned Cruz and Stewart or possibly even Tessa Thompson in Passing, after all, Negga’s nomination will ensure voters see the film, which could only help; Emilia Jones in CODA, who also surprisingly made the cut at BAFTA; Renate Reinsve for The Worst Person in the World, also surprising at BAFTA; Rachel Zegler for West Side Story if the film is better liked that it so far seems; or Agathe Rousselle for Titane, which didn’t place at BAFTA, but who’s made a decent run through minor critics groups.

There could be other surprises like Jennifer Hudson, Frances McDormand, Jennifer Lawrence, or Haley Bennett, but those possibilities are rather remote.

Best Animated Feature

I won’t go through the entire eligibility list for this section because it’s very lengthy, but I can tell you that there are four films that seem certain with a fifth slot entirely up for grabs. Those first four slots likely belong to The Mitchells vs. the Machines and 2021’s entire Disney/Pixar slate: Encanto, Luca, and Raya and the Last Dragon.

While many are predicting Flee to take that final spot. I remember all too well how often very popular animated documentaries have been able to overcome the kid-oriented image of the category. The answer is never. While this could be the film that finally breaks the stranglehold, I’m going to bet against it. There are then six films that seem like potential seat-fillers and I’ve landed on Sing 2 simply because it’s shown up a few places whereas Vivo, Belle, Wish Dragon, Spirit Untamed, and Ron’s Gone Wrong really haven’t. That said, it is a sequel and either Vivo or Belle would be possible as well.

Best International Feature

Before digging into the final two categories, let’s take a cleansing moment and talk about Best International Feature Film. Sometimes, predicting this category is like throwing darts at a wall and hoping you’ve randomly landed on something. While it would be surprising for either Drive My Car or The Worst Person in the World, two of the best reviewed films on the shortlist, to miss the list, I couldn’t exactly say it would be terribly surprising either.

For the remaining three slots, I’m going with Flee, because the voters aren’t above nominating animated pictures here; A Hero is from prominent Iranian filmmaker Asghard Farhadi, which could bolster its chances; and finally I’m Your Man, which doesn’t seem like the kind of film that could top some of the others, but it’s also just the kind of film the Academy has put on their list in the past, so why not? The Hand of God, Compartment No. 6, Prayers for the Stolen, Great Freedom, and Lamb are the next most likely, but honestly, considering the past, i would never rule anything out.

Best Directing

The Academy’s directors branch remain an elusive bunch. Sometimes they play right into expectations. Others, they go entirely out on a limb. If they stick with expectations, I’d guess the entire DGA slate carries over. Of Jane Cmapion, Kenneth Branagh, Paul Thomas Anderson, Denis Villeneuve, and Steven Spielberg, shockingly, I’d say Spielberg could be left off this list. Who to replace him?

They love foreign directors, which could put either Ryusuke Hamaguchi, or the more daring Julia Ducournau, on the list. Lin-Manuel Miranda, Rebecca Hall, and Maggie Gyllenhaal could each benefit for already being part of the club while Adam McKay has surprised us before with a nomination. Don’t count Guillermo del Toro out of the equation either. Although his film hasn’t done incredibly well this season, he could still suirprise.

Joel Coen, Sian Heder, Pablo Larrain, David Lowery, Wes Anderson, and Joe Wright have all been in the conversation at some point this year, but I doubt any of them make it through.

Best Picture

Now, let’s dig into the final slate of films. Here they are, in the alphabetical order in which they would be announced. All titles are bold and italicized. I’ll note my predictions. There are a small number of titles that I didn’t include, but I’ll discuss at the end of the list.

Being the Ricardos wouldn’t have been on this list if it weren’t for the PGA nomination. That it showed up in a couple of unexpected places at BAFTA put this one back on the list as a possible contender. Amazon Prime has no other major contenders, so they have put their all into this one, which is probably why it’s been doing a bit better than expected. I still think this is one of my borderline selections, but it’s not a bad choice. PREDICTED NOMINEE

Belfast won the coveted audience award at the Toronto International Film Festival. It played well enough with critics that its spot on the list more bird-in-the-hand territory than general contention territory. That could change depending on how well it does in the nomination count. A good day will benefit the film, but a bad one will doom it. PREDICTED NOMINEE

CODA is a borderline selection for me, but with nominations from PGA and SAG and its surprising performance at BAFTA, I’d say the film is well on its way to picking up one of the slots. It was an early critics’ favorite, but sometimes those don’t pan out. This one seems to have managed to hang on, probably because it’s Apple TV+’s only contender. PREDICTED NOMINEE

Don’t Look Up is one of Netflix’s competitors and while it could have put all of its eggs in the Power of the Dog basket, it didn’t and its proven a wise strategy. The film overcame less than spectacular reviews to dominate several news cycles about its importance as a film and then it pulled out a Best Picture nomination at BAFTA, which followed nods at PGA and SAG to secure its spot on the list. PREDICTED NOMINEE

Drive My Car is quite simply the critics’ darling. Winning numerous precursors, the film has built a reputation as this year’s Parasite. Only it’s not performing even close to as well as that film. It didn’t pick up Best Picture nominations anyone major and not getting in at PGA likely hurt its chances. That said, there’s been enough positive word of mouth around it that you should at least consider it, especially if Ryusuke Hamaguchi is nominated in directing. Unfortunately, that’s no guarantee considering how hard the directors try to be different some years.

Dune is the technical marvel on the list. While that might not have guaranteed a Best Picture nomination in the past, ten slots makes it entirely likely. Of course, the film managed nominations from PGA and BAFTA, so its place on the list was all but assured. It’s probably the strongest lock on the list with one exception. PREDICTED NOMINEE

King Richard hasn’t had quite the precursor season it was thought it might have, but its been doing reasonably well. As one of only two major minority-centered films in competition, I’d be surprised if it didn’t make the cut. Of course, the film didn’t exactly spark excitement at the box office and while it has a PGA and SAG nomination, BAFTA didn’t care for it, but they only have five slots, so it could have made a list of ten, which is the only thing keeping the film in this competition right now. PREDICTED NOMINEE

Licorice Pizza is a terrible title. It’s better than the prior one (Soggy Bottom), but not by much. That said, Paul Thomas Anderson has become an Oscar god, turning almost every project, however, slight into a major contender. While some critics said this was a return to the Anderson of old, he’s been making inroads all season like the Anderson of new. Nominated at PGA and BAFTA, its slot at the Oscars is all but certain. PREDICTED NOMINEE

The Lost Daughter was originally though to be a major contender, especially with Olivia Colman in the lead. However, it seems like Netflix has been overly focused on three of its other contenders and has let this one mostly languish. That’s not a good sign. That the film has only been nominate d7 times for Best Picture and none of them with a major precursor, it’s not likely to make the cut this year.

Mass is represented by Bleecker Street, which doesn’t have the best track record with Oscar voters. Still, the film has managed to earn a decent amount of praise and attention. With two of its cast potential Oscar nominees this year, one of whom was cited at BAFTA, there’s still an outside chance for the film, but it’s far outside.

Nightmare Alley could have been a contender as the follow up to Guillermo del Toro’s Oscar winner The Shape of Water, but critics didn’t really shower effusive praise on the film and while it has done decently well in craft categories, it’s been incommunicado from most of the major bodies. Nothing from PGA, BAFTA, or even a SAG ensemble nod. The film’s chances don’t look too hot.

Passing got some attention from Netflix, but like The Lost Daughter, it has largely taken a back seat to most players. That said, it has done somewhat well with critics, but Best Picture just isn’t in its cards. It could be if some voters are looking to make a statement, but they have other opportunities for that.

The Power of the Dog could have been like several of Jane Campion’s films following her Oscar success with The Piano. In 1993, Campion became only the second woman ever nominated for an Oscar for Best Directing. Her film took home a handful of Oscars, but had the misfortune of going up against Schindler’s List. Almost thirty years later, Campion finally has her chance to become the first woman nominated for two Best Directing Oscars and to become the third woman to win the Oscar for Best Directing. That alone would be satisfying, but the film has been dominating the precursors like few other films and has amassed a healthy array of nominations. 33 nominations for Best Picture so far, or 82.5% of all such nominations. That’s far better than Belfast‘s 67.5%. That pretty much guarantees it a slot in Best Picture and with that pedigree, it’s a short hop, skip, and jump to Best Picture. PREDICTED NOMINEE

tick, tick…BOOM! might have suffered the same fate as Passing and The Lost Daughter, but somehow Lin-Manuel Miranda’s directorial debut caught on surprisingly well. I could have imagined a lot worse for the film, but it managed a nomination from PGA where the other two didn’t and has the anchor of Andrew Garfield to bolster its prospects. This will be the studio’s third Best Picture nominee for this year. PREDICTED NOMINEE

West Side Story started the season as the frontrunner. Then other films began taking its place and when critics were heaping praise on other films, Steven Spielberg’s first musical languished. Sure, it got the DGA nomination for Spielberg and the film was on the PGA list, but BAFTA and SAG both ignored it, the latter being a rather unfortunate blow. Part of that could be Disney’s lackluster awards promotion record or it could be surprising indifference to the film itself. Whatever the reason, a Best Picture nomination is probably certain, but it will almost immediately be an also-ran. PREDICTED NOMINEE

There are a handful of other titles on the list, but I honestly doubt they’ll make the cut, so I list them here for completeness’ sake: Cyrano, The French Dispatch, The Green Knight, House of Gucci, In the Heights, and Spencer

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And that’s everything for this year. And with that, a new method is somewhat born, but it turned out to be far wordier than I imagined, topping last year’s totals. I apologize for my intentions not meeting my output, but for what it’s worth, I hope you enjoy. It’s been a crazy year, so let’s see how we do on the morrow.