As the precursor awards continue unabated until Oscar night, I’m going to be providing a weekly update highlighting the films that have won and lost momentum through the precursor awards (and in some cases other outside influences).

The critics are dwindling. With only a handful left to announce, the next week will be mostly guild nominations, which could help us determine what films are still on top going into the final balloting.

But, before we get into this week’s winners and losers, let’s take a look at what’s coming up this week:

Week 9 (Tue.-Mon.)

Tuesday, Jan. 25 – Audio Society (Nominations) (Official)
Tuesday, Jan. 25 – Cinematographers (Nominations) (Official)
Wednesday, Jan. 26 – Directors Guild – Documentary (Nominations) (Official)
Thursday, Jan. 27 – Cinema Editors (Nominations) (Official)
Thursday, Jan. 27 – Costume Designers (Nominations) (Official)
Thursday, Jan. 27 – Directors Guild – Director & First Feature (Nominations) (Official)
Thursday, Jan. 27 – Producers Guild (Nominations) (Official)
Thursday, Jan. 27 – Writers Guild (Nominations) (Official)
Thursday, Jan. 27 – Cesar Awards (Nominations) (Unconfirmed)
Thursday, Jan. 27 – Academy Awards Nominations Voting Begins (Official)
Friday, Jan. 28 – Casting Society (Awards) (Unconfirmed)
Friday, Jan. 28 – Golden Eagle Awards (Awards) (Official)

Big Winners

The Harder They Fall had a lot of good news this week, picking up one prize for Best Picture from African American film critics and then was top nominee at the NAACP Image Awards. Whether this has any bearing on Oscar voting remains to be seen, but it could be one of those late-breaking successes that overcomes expectations.
The Power of the Dog continues to pile on the nominations and awards as it moves firmly into frontrunner status for this year’s Oscars.
Dune continues to do well, not just in terms of technical prizes, but in categories like Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Adapted Screenplay. Could be a good sign for its Oscar prospects.

Big Losers

Belfast can’t seem to catch a lucky break, losing out almost everywhere it’s been nominated and earning far fewer prizes than a Toronto audience favorite really should. And four Best Picture prizes isn’t much to build a campaign off of.
King Richard suffers similarly, but without even less support. Sure, it won at the Black Film Critics Circle, but the AAFCA went a different direction as did NAACP, which recognized it, but not to the extent that they did Jeymes Samuel’s film. It might not be toast yet and Will Smith continues to pull in support, but its candidacy is fading after peaking too early.
The Green Knight never really seemed to get anywhere. Sure, the film’s been doing incredibly well with critics, but the support the film has received doesn’t seem to bolster its performance with other groups and its lone Best Picture citation so far is from the North Texas film critics. Not a profile in success.