As is our tradition, May begins our first predictive look at the year’s Oscar hopefuls. A lot of factors will play into how well our guesses hold up. Expect many of them to fall by the wayside as the year progresses and new contenders to rise into their places.

While most of the guilds haven’t begun nominating yet, most of the critics have announced their winners or nominees. As such, it’s time to start out the new year with a new set of predictions.

KEY:

Introductions

Wesley Lovell: A radical change from my prior list, the critics’ selections have really helped me isolate what’s in play and what’s not anymore.
Peter J. Patrick: This has been the toughest year ever in which to make predictions. The precursors have basically endorsed the bloggers’ predictions, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that Oscar will follow suit. The phenomenal box-office success elevates the chances of Spider-Man: No Way Home but doesn’t diminish the chances of films appealing to older audiences that no longer go out to see a film in large numbers, relying instead on pay-for-view, streaming, and DVD and Blu-ray releases. Oscar, as always, will likely have some last-minute surprises in store for us.
Tripp Burton: I can’t remember the last time that there were so many question marks at this point in a Oscar race? No category seems closed, some categories have several front-runners, and there isn’t even a whole lot that I would bet the house on yet. This is going to be an unpredictable year, and I can’t wait to see how it all shakes out.
Thomas LaTourette: The shortest Oscar season has mostly drawn to a close with certain films making their marks. There are definitely films that look to garner a number of nominations, if actual winners still seem undetermined. I am feeling mixed about it somewhat as a lot of the films have not overwhelmed me so far, though there are several big films that I have yet to see. The last couple of years I was more impressed with the caliber of movies that I had seen at this point. Hopefully, West Side Story, Being the Ricardos, The Tragedy of Macbeth, Nightmare Alley, The Lost Daughter, and King Richard will help redeem the year for me. Flee, The Worst Person in the World, and A Hero are international films to look forward to. I grant that personal matters do not have me feeling my best either, but I hope to see some films that get me more excited for Oscar season.

Best Picture

• Belfast WL P PP O New TB P TL P
• CODA WL O Returned TB J TL O
• Cyrano PP P
• Don’t Look Up New PP J TB O
• Drive My Car New WL WL New TB J
• Dune WL O PP O TB O TL P
• King Richard New WL J PP P TL P
• Licorice Pizza New WL J PP P TB O TL P
• Nightmare Alley WL O PP O TB O TL O
• The Power of the Dog WL P PP O TB O TL O
• Spider-Man: No Way Home PP J
• tick, tick…BOOM! New TB J New TL J
• The Tragedy of Macbeth WL O TL P
• West Side Story WL O PP O TB O TL P

Best Animated Feature

• Belle PP O TB O
• Encanto WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Flee New WL J PP O TB O TL O
• Luca WL O PP O TB O TL O
• The Mitchells vs the Machines New WL J PP O TB O TL O
• Raya and the Last Dragon WL O TL O

Best Director

• Belfast – Kenneth Branagh WL P PP P TB P TL P
• Dune – Denis Villeneuve WL P PP P TL P
• King Richard – Reinaldo Marcus Green TB P
• Licorice Pizza – Paul Thomas Anderson New WL J New PP J TB O New TL J
• The Power of the Dog – Jane Campion WL O PP O TB O TL P
• West Side Story – Steven Spielberg WL O Returned PP J New TB J New TL J

Best Actor

• Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog WL P PP O TB P TL P
• Peter Dinklage – Cyrano New WL J PP P TB P TL O
• Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM! New WL J New PP J New TB J New TL J
• Will Smith – King Richard WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth WL O PP O TB O TL O

Best Actress

• Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye WL O PP P TL P
• Olivia Colman – The Last Daughter New WL J New PP J TB P TL P
• Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers PP P
• Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos New WL J New PP J New TB J
• Lady Gaga – House of Gucci New WL J New TB J New TL J
• Frances McDormand – The Tragedy of Macbeth TL P
• Kristen Stewart – Spencer WL O PP P TB O TL P
• Rachel Zegler – West Side Story New TB J

Best Supporting Actor

• Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar New WL J
• Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza TB O
• Jamie Dornan – Belfast PP P New TL J
• Ciaran Hinds – Belfast WL P PP O TL P
• Troy Kotsur – CODA New WL J New PP J New TB J New TL J
• Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog PP O
• J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos Returned WL J New TB J New TL J
• Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog New WL J PP P TB P TL P

Best Supporting Actress

• Catriona Balfe – Belfast PP P New TB J New TL J
• Ariana DeBose – West Side Story Returned WL J TB O New TL J
• Judi Dench – Belfast PP P
• Kristen Dunst – The Power of the Dog WL P PP P TB P TL O
• Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard New WL J PP P TB P TL P
• Rita Moreno – West Side Story New WL J New TL J
• Ruth Negga – Passing New WL J New PP J TB O

Best Original Screenplay

• Being the Ricardos Returned WL J New PP J New TB J New TL J
• Belfast WL P PP O TB P TL P
• Don’t Look Up New PP J TB O TL O
• King Richard New WL J TB P TL P
• Licorice Pizza WL O PP P TB O TL O
• Mass PP O
• Parallel Mothers New WL J

Best Adapted Screenplay

• CODA WL O TB O TL P
• Drive My Car New WL J New PP J New TB J
• Dune PP O
• The Lost Daughter PP P TB P TL P
• The Power of the Dog WL P PP P TB O TL O
• The Tragedy of Macbeth WL O TL P
• West Side Story New WL J PP O New TB J New TL J

Best Original Song

• Be Alive – King Richard New WL O New TL O
• Dos Oruguitas – Encanto New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Down to Joy – Belfast New TB O New TL O
• Guns Go Bang – The Harder They Fall New WL O
• Here I Am (Sining My Way Home) – Respect New WL O New PP O New TB O
• Just Look Up – Don’t Look Up New PP O New TL O
• No Time to Die – No Time to Die New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Somehow I Do – Four Good Days New TB O
• Your Song Saved My Life – Sing 2 New PP O

Best Original Score

• Don’t Look Up New PP O New TL O
• Dune New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Encanto New WL O New TB O New TL O
• The French Dispatch New PP O New TL O
• King Richard New TB O
• Licorice Pizza New PP O
• Parallel Mothers New TB O
• The Power of the Dog New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Spencer New WL O
• The Tragedy of Macbeth New WL O

Best Film Editing

• Belfast New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Don’t Look Up New TB O
• Dune New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Licorice Pizza New WL O New PP O New TL O
• The Power of the Dog New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• West Side Story New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O

Best Cinematography

• Belfast New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Dune New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Nightmare Alley New WL O
• The Power of the Dog New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• The Tragedy of Macbeth New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• West Side Story New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O

Best Production Design

• Being the Ricardos New TB O
• Belfast New PP O New TB O
• Cruella New WL O
• Cyrano New WL O
• Dune New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• The French Dispatch New PP O New TL O
• Nightmare Alley New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• The Tragedy of Macbeth New TL O
• West Side Story New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O

Best Costume Design

• Cruella New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Cyrano New WL O
• Dune New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• House of Gucci New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Nightmare Alley New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Spencer New WL O
• West Side Story New PP O New TB O New TL O

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

• Coming 2 America New TB O
• Cruella New WL O New PP O New TL O
• Dune New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• The Eyes of Tammy Faye New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• House of Gucci New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Nightmare Alley New WL O New PP O New TB O
• The Suicide Squad New WL O
• West Side Story New TL O

Best Sound Mixing

• Belfast New WL O New PP O New TL O
• Dune New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• The Matrix Resurrections New WL O New TB O
• No Time to Die New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Spider-Man: No Way Home New WL O New PP O New TB O
• tick, tick…BOOM! New TL O
• West Side Story New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O

Best Visual Effects

• Dune WL O PP O TB O TL O
• Eternals WL O TL O
• Free Guy New TB J
• The Matrix Resurrections WL O PP O TB O TL O
• No Time to Die New PP J
• Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings WL O New PP J TB O TL O
• Spider-Man: No Way Home New WL J New PP J New TB J TL O

Best International Feature

• Compartment No. 6 New TB O
• Drive My Car New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Flee New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• The Hand of God New WL O New PP O New TL O
• A Hero New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• I’m Your Man New WL O
• Prayers for the Stolen New TB O
• The Worst Person in the World New PP O New TL O

Best Documentary Feature

• Ascension New PP O New TL O
• Attica New PP O
• The First Wave New WL O
• Flee New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• In the Same Breath New TB O
• Procession New WL O New TB O New TL O
• The Rescue New WL O New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Summer of Soul New WL O New PP O New TL O
• Writing with Fire New TB O

Best Documentary Short Subject

• Audible New PP O New TB O New TL O
• A Broken House New WL O New PP O New TB O
• Coded: The Hidden Love of J.C. Leyendecker New TL O
• Day of Rage New WL O New TB O
• The Facility New WL O
• Lead Me Home New PP O New TB O
• Lynching Postcards: Token of a Great Day New WL O
• The Queen of Basketball New WL O New PP O New TL O
• Sophie & the Baron New TB O
• Terror Contagion New TL O
• Three Songs for Benazir New TL O
• When We Were Bullies New PP O

Best Animated Short Film

• Bad Seeds New WL O New TB O
• Bestia New PP O
• Mum Is Pouring Rain New WL O
• The Musician New PP O
• Namoo New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Only a Child New PP O New TB O New TL O
• Robin Robin New TB O New TL O
• Souvenir Souvenir New WL O
• Step Into the River New WL O New TL O
• Us Again New WL O New TB O New TL O
• The Windshield Wiper New PP O

Best Live-Action Short Film

• Censor of Dreams New WL O New PP O New TL O
• Distances New PP O
• The Dress New PP O
• Frimas New WL O New TB O New TL O
• The Long Goodbye New WL O New TB O New TL O
• On My Mind New PP O New TB O
• Tala’vision New WL O New TL O
• Under the Heavens New PP O New TB O
• When the Sun Sets New WL O New TB O New TL O